Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas Prognose

Liga MX · Apertura - 16

09 Nov 2026, 02:00

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Guadalajara Chivas

Away

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Guadalajara Chivas

11%

27%

62%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Leon vs. Guadalajara Chivas Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Leon eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 11%, für Guadalajara Chivas 62% und für ein Unentschieden 27%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

0:1 · 16.8%

Both teams to score

36%

Over 2.5 goals

37%

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Leon

DWLWL

Guadalajara Chivas

DWWDW

Last 2 meetings Leon · 1W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Liga MX clash, León faces Guadalajara Chivas. León has shown a solid home performance this season, averaging 1.8 goals per game while maintaining a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.9 goals per match. On the other hand, Chivas has struggled on the road, with only 1 win in their last 5 away fixtures and an average of 1.2 goals scored per game. The matchup will likely hinge on León's ability to capitalize on their attacking prowess against Chivas' defense, which has been inconsistent away from home. Expect a competitive encounter with León looking to secure vital points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

11%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

62%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Guadalajara Chivas goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	13	17	15	8	3	1
1	5	12	8	5	2	1
2	2	3	2	1	1
3		1
4
5

↑ Leon goals · most likely 0–1 (16.8%)

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Players in form

Leon

D. Arcila 4 gls

D. Cambindo 3 gls

Guadalajara Chivas

R. Alvarado 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

62%

Draw

27%

Home Win

11%

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS No 36% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

63%

2.5

37%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

62%

Draw

27%

Home Win

11%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

84% Away (No Draw) 16% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Away Win by 2+ 3% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

62% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals 11% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

63%

2.5

37%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS No 36% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

22%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.5%	16.8%	14.8%	8.1%	3.3%
1	5.0%	11.7%	8.5%	4.6%	1.9%
2	1.8%	3.0%	2.4%	1.3%	0.5%
3	0.3%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Leon	Draw	Guadalajara Chivas
Leon	6.3%	3.1%	1.8%
Draw	5.2%	19.0%	22.2%
Guadalajara Chivas	0.5%	2.9%	39.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

57%

32%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

77%

0.5

23%

97%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas

1 Leon Wins

0 Draws

1 Guadalajara Chivas Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 Mar 2026	Guadalajara Chivas	5 - 0	Leon
19 Jul 2025	Leon	1 - 0	Guadalajara Chivas

Leon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	A Club Queretaro	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Atletico San Luis	W	2 - 0
11 Sep	A U.N.A.M. - Pumas	L	3 - 1
06 Sep	H Club America	W	1 - 0
03 Sep	A Toluca	L	2 - 0

Guadalajara Chivas — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Club America	D	2 - 2
14 Sep	H U.N.A.M. - Pumas	W	3 - 0
05 Sep	A Atletico San Luis	W	0 - 3
29 Aug	A CF Pachuca	D	1 - 1
22 Aug	H Club Tijuana	W	5 - 2

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.