Club Queretaro vs Toluca Prognose

Liga MX · Apertura - 5

Post on X

Toluca

Away

KI-Tipp Toluca oder Unentschieden

28%

45%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Club Queretaro vs. Toluca Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Club Queretaro eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 28%, für Toluca 45% und für ein Unentschieden 28%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 22 Aug 2026, 06:00.

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1st Half Home or Draw 71%

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Timeline

▮ 19'

Alexis Vega Yellow Card

▮ 31'

Diego Barbosa Red Card

▮ 45+5'

Fernando Arce Juárez Yellow Card

Ali Ávila Missed Penalty

45+6' ✗

HT 0–0

⇄ 46'

Alexis Vega ⇄ Nicolás Castro

FT 1–2

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Toluca oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 15%

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Club Queretaro

DWWLD

Toluca

LWWWW

Last 2 meetings Club Queretaro · 1W 0D 1L

Match summary

Club Queretaro faces Toluca in a Liga MX matchup, with both teams looking to secure valuable points. Queretaro has struggled this season, sitting lower in the standings with a goal difference of -5, while Toluca has shown more offensive prowess, scoring 12 goals in their last five matches. Historically, Toluca has had the upper hand in head-to-head encounters, winning 60% of the last ten meetings. Key players to watch include Queretaro's leading scorer, who has netted 5 goals this season, and Toluca's creative midfielder, who has recorded 4 assists. This match could be pivotal for both teams as they aim to improve their league positions.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

28%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toluca goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	10	7	3	1
1	10	15	8	3	1
2	6	7	4	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Club Queretaro goals · most likely 1–1 (15.0%)

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Players in form

Club Queretaro

S. Homenchenko 4 gls

A. Ávila 3 gls

Toluca

F. Viñas 4 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Home Win

28%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Home Win

28%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

53% Away (No Draw) 47% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

16% Away Win by 2+ 14% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

36% Away Scores More 32% Home Scores More 32% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.9%	10.3%	7.1%	2.8%	0.8%
1	9.5%	15.0%	7.8%	3.1%	0.9%
2	6.3%	7.4%	4.4%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.3%	2.7%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.6%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Club Queretaro	Draw	Toluca
Club Queretaro	17.6%	3.8%	1.4%
Draw	13.9%	21.0%	13.0%
Toluca	1.9%	4.9%	22.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Club Queretaro vs Toluca

1 Club Queretaro Wins

0 Draws

1 Toluca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Apr 2026	Club Queretaro	1 - 0	Toluca
18 Oct 2025	Toluca	4 - 0	Club Queretaro

Club Queretaro — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Leon	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Club Tijuana	W	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Atlas	W	1 - 3
22 Aug	H Toluca	L	1 - 2
16 Aug	A U.N.A.M. - Pumas	D	0 - 0

Toluca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Santos Laguna	L	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Puebla	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Atlas	W	5 - 2
07 Sep	H Monterrey	W	2 - 0
03 Sep	H Leon	W	2 - 0

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.