FC Porto vs Nacional Prognose

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 16

27 Dec 2026, 16:00

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Nacional

Away

KI-Tipp FC Porto gewinnt

81%

15%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

FC Porto vs. Nacional Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für FC Porto eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 81%, für Nacional 4% und für ein Unentschieden 15%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

2:0 · 17.8%

Both teams to score

31%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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FC Porto

WWLWW

Nacional

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings FC Porto · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

FC Porto will face Nacional in a Primeira Liga clash on December 27, 2026. Historically, Porto has been dominant against Nacional, winning 11 of their last 12 encounters. Porto's offensive strength is highlighted by their average of 2.5 goals per match this season, while Nacional struggles defensively, conceding nearly 2 goals per match. With Porto's strong home form and superior squad depth, they are heavily favored to secure a victory in this matchup. Key players for Porto will need to capitalize on their scoring opportunities to maintain their title challenge.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Nacional goals →

	0	1	2
0	7	2
1	14	7	1
2	18	7	1
3	15	6	1
4	9	4	1
5	4	2

↑ FC Porto goals · most likely 2–0 (17.8%)

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Players in form

FC Porto

Gabri Veiga 4 gls

Borja Sainz 3 gls

André Silva 3 gls

William 2 gls

Nacional

No scorer data.

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Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

69% BTTS No 31% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

87%

4.5

13%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

95% Home (No Draw) 5% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

59% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

81% Home Scores More 15% Equal Goals 4% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

87%

4.5

13%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

69% BTTS No 31% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

15%

25%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.6%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
1	13.7%	6.7%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
2	17.8%	7.3%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%
3	14.7%	6.0%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
4	9.1%	3.7%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

34%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

31%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC Porto	Draw	Nacional
FC Porto	57.2%	1.5%	0.2%
Draw	23.6%	10.1%	1.8%
Nacional	1.9%	1.7%	2.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

31%

1.5

69%

57%

2.5

43%

80%

3.5

20%

Home Exact Goals

22%

27%

22%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

70%

1.5

30%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

66%

27%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

83%

0.5

17%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

80%

0.5

20%

98%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FC Porto vs Nacional

3 FC Porto Wins

0 Draws

0 Nacional Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Feb 2026	Nacional	0 - 1	FC Porto
13 Sep 2025	FC Porto	1 - 0	Nacional
17 May 2025	FC Porto	3 - 0	Nacional

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

FC Porto — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Benfica	W	3 - 1
12 Sep	A Casa Pia	W	1 - 4
08 Sep	H Manchester City	L	0 - 2
04 Sep	H Moreirense	W	2 - 1
29 Aug	A Academico Viseu	W	0 - 3

Nacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Famalicao	L	0 - 4
12 Sep	H Alverca	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Sporting CP	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H Estrela	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A Vitória SC	L	1 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.