AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Prognose

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 27

21 Mar 2027, 16:00

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Excelsior

Away

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für AZ Alkmaar

60%

24%

16%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

AZ Alkmaar vs. Excelsior Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für AZ Alkmaar eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 60%, für Excelsior 16% und für ein Unentschieden 24%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:1 · 11.3%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

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AZ Alkmaar

WLDWW

Excelsior

DLDWW

Last 3 meetings AZ Alkmaar · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Eredivisie clash, AZ Alkmaar will host Excelsior. AZ has shown strong form this season, currently positioned well in the league standings, boasting a solid home record with an average of 2.1 goals scored per match. Excelsior, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, with a significant drop in scoring efficiency, averaging just 0.8 goals per away match. Given AZ's offensive strength and Excelsior's defensive vulnerabilities, the matchup favors the home side, making them the likely favorites to secure three points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Excelsior goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	4	2	1
1	9	11	5	1
2	11	10	5	1
3	7	7	3	1
4	4	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ AZ Alkmaar goals · most likely 1–1 (11.3%)

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Players in form

AZ Alkmaar

R. Daal 4 gls

M. Meerdink 3 gls

Excelsior

A. Sliti 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

24%

Away Win

16%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

84%

4.5

16%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

24%

Away Win

16%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

79% Home (No Draw) 21% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

37% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

60% Home Scores More 24% Equal Goals 16% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

84%

4.5

16%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.6%	3.7%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%
1	9.4%	11.3%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%
2	10.8%	10.1%	4.8%	1.5%	0.4%
3	7.3%	6.8%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%
4	3.7%	3.4%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

33%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar	39.8%	3.7%	1.1%
Draw	19.5%	14.3%	6.3%
Excelsior	2.8%	3.7%	8.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

87%

41%

1.5

59%

68%

2.5

32%

87%

3.5

13%

Home Exact Goals

14%

27%

28%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

39%

37%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior

2 AZ Alkmaar Wins

1 Draws

0 Excelsior Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Feb 2026	Excelsior	1 - 2	AZ Alkmaar
21 Jan 2026	AZ Alkmaar	1 - 1	Excelsior
10 Mar 2024	AZ Alkmaar	4 - 0	Excelsior

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

AZ Alkmaar — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Telstar	W	1 - 0
16 Sep	A Sunderland	L	1 - 0
11 Sep	H Willem II	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	A Heerenveen	W	2 - 3
29 Aug	H GO Ahead Eagles	W	5 - 2

Excelsior — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Ajax	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Utrecht	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A NEC Nijmegen	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	A Willem II	W	0 - 3
29 Aug	H Sparta Rotterdam	W	2 - 1

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18	6	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	24	10	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	12	13	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	10	19	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	-13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	-14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	-14	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.