Auxerre vs Marseille Prognose

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 12

28 Nov 2026, 16:00

Post on X

Marseille

Away

KI-Tipp Auxerre gewinnt oder unentschieden

73%

22%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Auxerre vs. Marseille Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Auxerre eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 73%, für Marseille 5% und für ein Unentschieden 22%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:0 · 20.5%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

36%

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Auxerre

WWLLL

Marseille

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings Auxerre · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

Auxerre faces Marseille in a Ligue 1 clash on November 28, 2026. Marseille currently holds a stronger position in the league standings, with a higher average possession percentage and goal-scoring rate compared to Auxerre. The home team will need to capitalize on set pieces and counter-attacks, as their defensive record shows vulnerability against teams with high pressing. Marseille's ability to control the midfield and exploit wide areas could prove decisive in breaking down Auxerre's defense. Expect a tactical battle where efficiency in front of goal will be crucial for both sides.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

73%

10%

Draw

22%

45%

Away

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Marseille goals →

	0	1	2
0	13	3	1
1	21	8	1
2	20	6	1
3	12	4	1
4	5	2
5	2	1

↑ Auxerre goals · most likely 1–0 (20.5%)

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Players in form

Auxerre

C. Archer 3 gls

Marseille

A. Gouiri 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

22%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

22%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

93% Home (No Draw) 7% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

45% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

73% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 5% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

23%

28%

20%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.7%	3.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	20.5%	8.0%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%
2	19.5%	6.4%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
3	11.8%	3.9%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
4	5.4%	1.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

74%

1.5

26%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

36%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

35%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Auxerre	Draw	Marseille
Auxerre	48.2%	1.8%	0.2%
Draw	24.7%	16.7%	2.6%
Marseille	1.3%	1.9%	2.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

46%

1.5

54%

73%

2.5

27%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

16%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

72%

24%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

86%

0.5

14%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

84%

0.5

16%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Auxerre vs Marseille

1 Auxerre Wins

0 Draws

2 Marseille Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
13 Mar 2026	Marseille	1 - 0	Auxerre
01 Nov 2025	Auxerre	0 - 1	Marseille
22 Feb 2025	Auxerre	3 - 0	Marseille

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Auxerre — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Stade Brestois 29	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	H Nice	W	1 - 0
04 Sep	A Lyon	L	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Angers	L	1 - 3
22 Aug	A Lens	L	5 - 2

Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 2
17 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	A Rennes	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Paris FC	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Monaco	L	2 - 0

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.