Monaco vs Lille Prognose

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8
FT
Post on X
Stade Louis-II, Monaco
KI-Tipp Monaco oder Unentschieden
48%
28%
25%
Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Monaco vs. Lille Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Monaco eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 48%, für Lille 25% und für ein Unentschieden 28%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 25 Oct 2026, 15:58.

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Match Report

Monaco came from behind to claim a 1–1 draw against Lille in Ligue 1's eighth matchday, with Ethan Mbappé's 24th-minute opener giving the visitors a deserved half-time lead. Lille dominated possession throughout, controlling 64% of the ball and registering 20 total shots to Monaco's four, with an expected goals figure of 2.24 reflecting their clear territorial superiority.

The second half proved eventful. Monaco's task became significantly harder when Tanguy Nianzou was shown a red card on 66 minutes, a moment that coincided with yellow cards being distributed freely across both sides. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Monaco levelled through E. Diop at the 74th minute to rescue a point. Notably, Ethan Mbappé, who had opened the scoring, was substituted off just three minutes before the equaliser.

The result means neither side takes maximum points, with Monaco perhaps the more satisfied given the circumstances. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Monaco win as the most likely outcome at 48%, though ultimately honours were shared. A flurry of late bookings added a fractious note to the final minutes.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Ansu Fati ⇄ Mathys Detourbet
15' ⇄
⚽ 0–1 24'
Ethan Mbappé assist: Soriba Diaoune
Mamadou Coulibaly Yellow Card
32' ▮
▮ 34'
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson Yellow Card
Mamadou Coulibaly ⇄ Matthis Abline
45' ⇄
Denis Zakaria ⇄ E. Diop
45' ⇄
HT 0–1
Mathys Detourbet Yellow Card
56' ▮
⇄ 63'
Soriba Diaoune ⇄ Isaac Cossier
▮ 66'
Tanguy Nianzou Red Card
▮ 66'
Romain Perraud Yellow Card
⇄ 69'
Ethan Mbappé ⇄ Maxima Goffi
E. Diop assist: Jordan Teze
74' ⚽ 1–1
⇄ 80'
Nabil Bentaleb ⇄ Maurits Kjaergaard
⇄ 80'
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson
Vanderson Yellow Card
90+1' ▮
Mathys Detourbet ⇄ Folarin Balogun
90+1' ⇄
▮ 90+2'
Maxima Goffi Yellow Card
▮ 90+4'
Berke Özer Yellow Card
FT 1–1
Monaco

Match Stats

Lille
64% Ball Possession 36%
2.24 Expected Goals (xG) 0.71
20 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Goal 2
10 Shots off Goal 0
4 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 3
8 Shots outsidebox 1
6 Corner Kicks 1
3 Offsides 2
18 Fouls 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 5
605 Total passes 355
539 Passes accurate 266
13 Free Kicks 18
Monaco
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
2 Vanderson D 7.6 90' – – 4 66 (59%) 3
37 E. Diop M 7.6 44' 1 – 2 23 (17%) –
4 Jordan Teze D 7.2 90' – 1 1 101 (98%) 2
8 Lamine Camara M 7.1 90' – – 1 82 (77%) 1
11 Matthis Abline F 7.0 44' – – 3 5 (3%) –
10 Aleksandr Golovin M 7.0 90' – – 3 43 (38%) 3
6 Denis Zakaria M 6.9 46' – – 1 20 (19%) 1
72 Sadibou Sané D 6.9 90' – – 1 101 (95%) –
20 Nazinho D 6.7 90' – – 1 58 (48%) 1
1 Lukáš Hrádecký G 6.6 90' – – – 35 (31%) –
31 Ansu Fati M 6.3 15' – – – 2 (2%) –
7 Mathys Detourbet F 6.3 76' – – – 39 (32%) –
28 Mamadou Coulibaly M 6.2 46' – – – 17 (14%) 2
29 Paris Brunner F 6.1 90' – – 3 13 (6%) –
Lille
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
8 Ethan Mbappé F 8.1 69' 1 – 1 17 (13%) 1
3 Nathan Ngoy D 7.3 90' – – 1 32 (28%) 1
35 Soriba Diaoune F 6.9 63' – 1 – 25 (19%) –
1 Berke Özer G 6.8 90' – – – 41 (12%) –
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D 6.8 90' – – – 40 (33%) –
6 Nabil Bentaleb M 6.7 80' – – 1 32 (29%) –
26 Isaac Cossier D 6.7 27' – – – 6 (6%) 1
Seamus Maughan 6.5 10' – – – – –
21 Benjamin André M 6.5 90' – – – 38 (32%) 4
10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson F 6.4 80' – – – 21 (16%) –
14 Maurits Kjaergaard M 6.3 10' – – 1 4 (3%) –
15 Romain Perraud D 6.2 90' – – – 40 (30%) 2
23 Tanguy Nianzou D 6.2 66' – – – 26 (24%) –
17 Ngal'ayel Mukau M 6.1 90' – – – 27 (18%) 3
38 Maxima Goffi D 6.1 21' – – – 5 (3%) –
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Confidence Low (48%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung
Monaco oder Unentschieden
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Monaco
WLDWL
Lille
DWDLD
Last 3 meetings Monaco · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In this Ligue 1 clash, Monaco faces Lille, both teams vying for critical points in their campaigns. Monaco has displayed a strong offensive record, averaging 1.8 goals per match this season, while Lille's defense has shown vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match. Monaco's possession-based approach may allow them to dictate the tempo, but Lille's counter-attacking style could exploit any defensive lapses. The outcome will likely hinge on Monaco's ability to break down Lille's defense and Lille's effectiveness in transition.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
48%
10%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
25%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Monaco
Paris Josua Brunner 4 gls
Lille

No scorer data.

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Head to Head: Monaco vs Lille

0 Monaco Wins
0 Draws
3 Lille Wins
Date Home Score Away
10 May 2026 Monaco 0 - 1 Lille
24 Aug 2025 Lille 1 - 0 Monaco
22 Feb 2025 Lille 2 - 1 Monaco
Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Monaco — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
05 Nov H FC Nordsjaelland W 2 - 0
01 Nov A Paris FC L 3 - 1
25 Oct H Lille D 1 - 1
22 Oct H SC Freiburg W 3 - 0
18 Oct A Lorient L 1 - 0

Lille — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
03 Nov A Bodo/Glimt D 0 - 0
30 Oct H Lens W 1 - 0
25 Oct A Monaco D 1 - 1
21 Oct H Galatasaray L 2 - 4
17 Oct H Stade Brestois 29 D 1 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Paris Saint Germain
10 7 2 1 +12 23
2
Paris FC
10 6 2 2 +7 20
3
Lille
9 5 3 1 +6 18
4
Lyon
9 5 2 2 +8 17
5
Rennes
9 5 1 3 +1 16
6
Marseille
9 5 0 4 +7 15
7
Monaco
9 4 3 2 +2 15
8
Nice
9 4 2 3 +1 14
9
Lens
9 4 1 4 +3 13
10
Toulouse
10 3 4 3 +1 13
11
Stade Brestois 29
9 3 3 3 +4 12
12
Lorient
9 3 3 3 -1 12
13
Strasbourg
10 3 1 6 -4 10
14
Auxerre
10 3 1 6 -11 10
15
Angers
9 2 2 5 -8 8
16
Estac Troyes
10 2 2 6 -10 8
17
Le Mans
9 1 4 4 -7 7
18
Le Havre
9 0 2 7 -11 2

Lille

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Arturo Ruiz
1 Özer
15 Perraud
4 Ribeiro
23 Nianzou
3 Ngoy
21 André
6 Bentaleb
17 Mukau
35 Diaoune
10 Haraldsson
8 Mbappé

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 B. Özer G
3 N. Ngoy D
23 T. Nianzou D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
15 R. Perraud D
17 N. Mukau M
6 N. Bentaleb M
21 B. André M
8 E. Mbappé F
10 H. Haraldsson F
35 S. Diaoune F

Substitutes

7 D. Bakwa F
26 I. Cossier D
12 O. Gill G
9 O. Giroud F
38 M. Goffi D
14 M. Kjærgaard M
28 G. Perrin F
24 C. Verdonk D
33 Matah Yondjio F

Monaco

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Filipe Luís
1 Hrádecký
20 Nazinho
4 Teze
72 Sané
2 Vanderson
6 Zakaria
8 Camara
31 Fati
10 Golovin
28 Coulibaly
29 Brunner

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 L. Hrádecký G
2 Vanderson D
72 Sadibou Sané D
4 J. Teze D
20 Flávio Nazinho D
8 L. Camara M
6 D. Zakaria M
28 M. Coulibaly M
10 A. Golovin M
31 Ansu Fati M
29 Paris Josua Brunner F

Substitutes

49 I. Touré M
7 M. Detourbet F
9 F. Balogun F
11 M. Abline F
37 E. Diop M
16 P. Köhn G
13 C. Mawissa Elebi D
18 T. Minamino M
22 M. Salisu D

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