Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 Prognose

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7
FT
Post on X
Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
KI-Tipp Lille oder Unentschieden
48%
27%
25%
Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Lille vs. Stade Brestois 29 Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Lille eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 48%, für Stade Brestois 29 25% und für ein Unentschieden 27%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 17 Oct 2026, 20:38.

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Match Report

Brest made a stunning start at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, with Mama Baldé breaking the deadlock inside six minutes to give the visitors a shock lead. Lille dominated possession — finishing with 67% — but struggled to convert their pressure into clear chances before the interval, heading into the break a goal down despite generating the better expected goals figure of 1.57.

The hosts regrouped after the restart and were rewarded when Olivier Giroud stepped up to convert a penalty on 64 minutes, levelling proceedings and shifting the momentum firmly in Lille's favour. Brest, limited to just two shots on target throughout, found it increasingly difficult to threaten as Lille pushed for a winner in the closing stages.

Despite Lille's clear territorial and statistical superiority — 16 total shots to Brest's eight — a second goal proved elusive, and the match ended all square. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lille win as the most likely outcome at 48%, a call that ultimately fell just short of materialising as both sides shared the points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 6'
Mama Baldé assist: Gautier Lloris
▮ 13'
Kamory Doumbia Yellow Card
⇄ 45'
Mama Baldé ⇄ Joseph Nonge
HT 0–1
Romain Perraud ⇄ Calvin Verdonk
54' ⇄
▮ 58'
Bradley Locko Yellow Card
Olivier Giroud Penalty
64' ⚽ 1–1
Dilane Bakwa ⇄ Soriba Diaoune
65' ⇄
Benjamin André ⇄ Nabil Bentaleb
65' ⇄
⇄ 77'
Pathé Mboup ⇄ Ibrahim Yayiya Kante
Ngal'ayel Mukau ⇄ Maurits Kjaergaard
77' ⇄
⇄ 82'
Kamory Doumbia ⇄ Mamady Diambou
Calvin Verdonk Yellow Card
90' ▮
FT 1–1
Lille

Match Stats

Stade Brestois 29
67% Ball Possession 33%
1.57 Expected Goals (xG) 0.82
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Goal 2
7 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 3
10 Shots insidebox 6
6 Shots outsidebox 2
5 Corner Kicks 2
3 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 5
648 Total passes 320
587 Passes accurate 249
19 Free Kicks 12
Lille
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
38 Maxima Goffi D 7.2 90' – – 2 80 (78%) 3
9 Olivier Giroud F 7.1 90' 1 – 2 11 (6%) –
6 Nabil Bentaleb M 7.0 25' – – 2 22 (19%) 1
7 Dilane Bakwa M 7.0 65' – – 1 43 (40%) 1
15 Romain Perraud D 6.9 54' – – 1 56 (49%) 1
12 Orlando Gill G 6.8 90' – – – 22 (20%) –
3 Nathan Ngoy D 6.8 90' – – – 97 (95%) –
35 Soriba Diaoune F 6.7 25' – – – 9 (7%) 1
23 Tanguy Nianzou D 6.7 90' – – 1 80 (77%) 1
17 Ngal'ayel Mukau M 6.6 77' – – 1 40 (34%) 5
21 Benjamin André M 6.5 65' – – 2 64 (56%) 2
14 Maurits Kjaergaard M 6.4 13' – – 1 9 (8%) –
10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson M 6.3 90' – – – 48 (40%) 1
8 Ethan Mbappé M 6.3 90' – – 1 47 (38%) 4
24 Calvin Verdonk D 5.9 36' – – – 20 (20%) –
Stade Brestois 29
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
1 Egil Selvik G 7.6 90' – – – 32 (20%) –
17 Mama Baldé M 7.6 46' 1 – 1 12 (6%) 1
4 Gautier Lloris D 7.2 90' – 1 3 34 (30%) –
29 Lucas Tousart D 7.0 90' – – – 32 (27%) 1
7 Joseph Nonge M 6.8 44' – – 1 12 (10%) 1
2 Bradley Locko D 6.7 90' – – 1 32 (29%) 2
70 Kenny Lala D 6.6 90' – – – 27 (22%) 2
21 Ibrahim Yayiya Kante F 6.6 13' – – 2 3 (3%) 1
8 Hugo Magnetti M 6.5 90' – – – 28 (21%) 6
23 Kamory Doumbia M 6.5 82' – – – 23 (21%) 3
13 Joris Chotard M 6.4 90' – – – 36 (24%) –
19 Ludovic Ajorque F 6.4 90' – – – 21 (12%) 1
9 Pathé Mboup M 6.4 77' – – – 22 (18%) 2
6 Mamady Diambou M 6.3 8' – – – 2 (2%) –
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Confidence Low (48%)

At a glance

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Lille
DWDLD
Stade Brestois 29
WLDWD
Last 3 meetings Lille · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

Lille will face Stade Brestois 29 in a Ligue 1 matchup with both teams looking to solidify their positions in the league. Lille has shown a strong offensive performance this season, averaging 1.8 goals per game, while Brestois struggles defensively, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game. The efficiency of Lille's attack, highlighted by their 50% shooting accuracy, will be critical against Brestois, who have only managed to maintain a 30% possession rate in recent outings. This match could hinge on Lille's ability to capitalize on defensive lapses from Brestois, as they seek to maintain momentum in the league standings.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
48%
45%
Draw
27%
45%
Away
25%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Lille

No scorer data.

Stade Brestois 29
L. Ajorque 4 gls
K. Doumbia 4 gls

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Head to Head: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29

0 Lille Wins
2 Draws
1 Stade Brestois 29 Wins
Date Home Score Away
14 Feb 2026 Lille 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29
17 Aug 2025 Stade Brestois 29 3 - 3 Lille
10 May 2025 Stade Brestois 29 2 - 0 Lille
Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Lille — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
03 Nov A Bodo/Glimt D 0 - 0
30 Oct H Lens W 1 - 0
25 Oct A Monaco D 1 - 1
21 Oct H Galatasaray L 2 - 4
17 Oct H Stade Brestois 29 D 1 - 1

Stade Brestois 29 — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
02 Nov A Lorient W 0 - 2
23 Oct H Nice L 1 - 2
17 Oct A Lille D 1 - 1
10 Oct H Angers W 5 - 1
03 Oct H Monza D 2 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Paris Saint Germain
10 7 2 1 +12 23
2
Paris FC
10 6 2 2 +7 20
3
Lille
9 5 3 1 +6 18
4
Lyon
9 5 2 2 +8 17
5
Rennes
9 5 1 3 +1 16
6
Marseille
9 5 0 4 +7 15
7
Monaco
9 4 3 2 +2 15
8
Nice
9 4 2 3 +1 14
9
Lens
9 4 1 4 +3 13
10
Toulouse
10 3 4 3 +1 13
11
Stade Brestois 29
9 3 3 3 +4 12
12
Lorient
9 3 3 3 -1 12
13
Strasbourg
10 3 1 6 -4 10
14
Auxerre
10 3 1 6 -11 10
15
Angers
9 2 2 5 -8 8
16
Estac Troyes
10 2 2 6 -10 8
17
Le Mans
9 1 4 4 -7 7
18
Le Havre
9 0 2 7 -11 2

Lille

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Milos Milojevic
12 Gill
15 Perraud
23 Nianzou
3 Ngoy
38 Goffi
17 Mukau
21 André
7 Bakwa
10 Haraldsson
8 Mbappé
9 Giroud

Starting XI

# Player Pos
12 O. Gill G
38 M. Goffi D
3 N. Ngoy D
23 T. Nianzou D
15 R. Perraud D
21 B. André M
17 N. Mukau M
8 E. Mbappé M
10 H. Haraldsson M
7 D. Bakwa M
9 O. Giroud F

Substitutes

35 S. Diaoune F
26 I. Cossier D
6 N. Bentaleb M
14 M. Kjærgaard M
40 Zadig Lanssade G
28 G. Perrin F
24 C. Verdonk D
33 Matah Yondjio F
19 B. Önal F

Stade Brestois 29

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Milos Milojevic
1 Selvik
2 Locko
4 Lloris
29 Tousart
70 Lala
8 Magnetti
13 Chotard
9 Mboup
23 Doumbia
17 Baldé
19 Ajorque

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 E. Selvik G
70 K. Lala D
29 L. Tousart D
4 G. Lloris D
2 B. Locko D
13 J. Chotard M
8 H. Magnetti M
17 Mama Baldé M
23 K. Doumbia M
9 P. Mboup M
19 L. Ajorque F

Substitutes

21 Ibrahim Yayiya Kante F
6 M. Diambou M
18 J. Bourgault D
33 Enzo Monchatre F
20 L. Zogbe D
30 M. Patouillet G
7 J. Nonge Boende M
39 D. N´Guessan F

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