Toulouse vs Lille Prognose

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3

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Lille

Away

Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

KI-Tipp Lille oder Unentschieden

24%

28%

49%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Toulouse vs. Lille Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Toulouse eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 24%, für Lille 49% und für ein Unentschieden 28%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 3 Sep 2026, 20:39.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Unter 3,5 Tore 72%
1st Half Over 0.5 70%

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Match Report

Toulouse and Lille played out a goalless first half that belied the latter's statistical dominance, with the visitors already generating the majority of their chances. A significant moment arrived before the break when a VAR review cancelled a penalty for Thomas Jørgensen, denying Lille what could have been an earlier advantage.

The second half brought a flurry of substitutions from both sides, with Olivier Giroud and Ethan Mbappé among those introduced as Lille pushed for the breakthrough. That pressure told in the 73rd minute when Ayase Ueda converted a normal goal to settle the contest. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lille win as the most likely outcome at 49%, a call that proved correct.

The final numbers underlined Lille's control throughout: 53% possession, 10 shots on target to Toulouse's six, and a commanding 24 total attempts compared to the hosts' ten. The single-goal margin perhaps flatters Toulouse, who ultimately had little answer to Lille's sustained attacking intent across the ninety minutes.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Santiago Hidalgo Yellow Card

20' ▮

Thomas Jørgensen Penalty cancelled

34' 🖵

⇄ 45'

Osame Sahraoui ⇄ Dilane Bakwa

⇄ 45'

Calvin Verdonk ⇄ Romain Perraud

HT 0–0

Santiago Hidalgo ⇄ Julian Vignolo

57' ⇄

⇄ 57'

Olivier Giroud ⇄ Ayase Ueda

⇄ 57'

Ethan Mbappé ⇄ Ngal'ayel Mukau

Jacen Russell-Rowe ⇄ Casper Tengstedt

65' ⇄

Rafik Messali ⇄ Ismail Diallo

66' ⇄

⇄ 71'

Nabil Bentaleb ⇄ Başar Önal

Guillaume Restes ⇄ Mathys Niflore

71' ⇄

Alexis Vossah ⇄ Niklas Schmidt

72' ⇄

⚽ 0–1 73'

Ayase Ueda

FT 0–1

Toulouse

Match Stats

Lille

53% Ball Possession 47%

24 Total Shots 10

10 Shots on Goal 6

11 Shots off Goal 2

3 Blocked Shots 2

14 Shots insidebox 6

10 Shots outsidebox 4

6 Corner Kicks 2

3 Offsides 0

16 Fouls 9

1 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 0

5 Goalkeeper Saves 9

514 Total passes 461

449 Passes accurate 396

9 Free Kicks 16

Toulouse

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M	7.4	90'	–	–	3	81 (70%)	6
3 Mark McKenzie D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	72 (66%)	–
2 Rasmus Nicolaisen D	7.2	90'	–	–	2	55 (51%)	–
8 Thomas Jørgensen M	7.0	90'	–	–	1	35 (30%)	1
12 Christ Tapé D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	35 (31%)	–
16 Guillaume Restes G	6.9	71'	–	–	–	31 (27%)	–
22 Rafik Messali D	6.9	66'	–	–	–	47 (40%)	1
9 Santiago Hidalgo M	6.8	57'	–	–	5	19 (14%)	1
6 Alexis Vossah M	6.7	72'	–	–	3	43 (37%)	2
31 Niklas Schmidt M	6.6	18'	–	–	–	20 (19%)	–
60 Mathys Niflore G	6.6	19'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
94 Ismail Diallo D	6.5	24'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
7 Julian Vignolo F	6.4	33'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	–
13 Jacen Russell-Rowe F	6.3	65'	–	–	4	11 (9%)	–
20 Casper Tengstedt F	6.2	25'	–	–	3	2 (2%)	–
37 Ilyas Azizi M	6.2	90'	–	–	2	27 (21%)	–

Lille

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Berke Özer G	9.6	90'	–	–	–	55 (43%)	–
18 Ayase Ueda F	7.8	33'	1	–	2	3 (3%)	–
22 Tiago Santos D	7.8	90'	–	–	2	27 (24%)	3
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D	7.7	90'	–	–	–	69 (62%)	2
3 Nathan Ngoy D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	70 (62%)	–
21 Benjamin André M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	43 (37%)	3
10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	36 (33%)	1
17 Ngal'ayel Mukau M	7.1	33'	–	–	1	8 (6%)	1
24 Calvin Verdonk D	7.1	46'	–	–	1	31 (24%)	3
15 Romain Perraud D	7.0	44'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	2
8 Ethan Mbappé M	7.0	57'	–	–	1	14 (12%)	1
11 Osame Sahraoui M	6.9	46'	–	–	2	18 (16%)	–
6 Nabil Bentaleb M	6.8	71'	–	–	–	36 (33%)	1
7 Dilane Bakwa F	6.8	44'	–	–	1	19 (16%)	1
9 Olivier Giroud F	6.7	57'	–	–	–	13 (8%)	–
19 Başar Önal F	6.5	19'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–

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Confidence Low (49%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Lille oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.3%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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Toulouse

WDLDL

Lille

LWLWD

Last 3 meetings Toulouse · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In their upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Toulouse will face Lille in a matchup that could see tactical battles in midfield. Toulouse's recent form has been solid, with a defensive record that has improved significantly, conceding only 2 goals in their last 5 matches. Lille, on the other hand, has displayed attacking prowess, averaging 2 goals per game in the same period. The outcome could hinge on Toulouse's ability to contain Lille's dynamic forward line while exploiting any defensive lapses from Lille. Expect a closely contested encounter as both teams vie for crucial points early in the season.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lille goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	10	9	5	2	1
1	6	13	10	5	2	1
2	4	6	5	3	1
3	1	2	2	1
4		1
5

↑ Toulouse goals · most likely 1–1 (13.3%)

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Players in form

Toulouse

C. Tengstedt 3 gls

T. Jørgensen 2 gls

Lille

Tiago Santos 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

49%

Draw

28%

Home Win

24%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

49%

Draw

28%

Home Win

24%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

67% Away (No Draw) 33% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

26% Away Win by 2+ 9% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

49% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals 24% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	9.5%	9.0%	4.9%	2.0%
1	5.7%	13.3%	9.6%	5.2%	2.1%
2	3.9%	6.3%	5.2%	2.8%	1.1%
3	1.4%	2.3%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%
4	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Toulouse	Draw	Lille
Toulouse	15.4%	5.3%	3.2%
Draw	7.8%	17.1%	18.6%
Lille	1.0%	3.4%	28.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

34%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Toulouse vs Lille

0 Toulouse Wins

0 Draws

3 Lille Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
12 Apr 2026	Toulouse	0 - 4	Lille
14 Sep 2025	Lille	2 - 1	Toulouse
12 Apr 2025	Toulouse	1 - 2	Lille

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Toulouse — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Le Havre	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	A Lorient	D	2 - 2
03 Sep	H Lille	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Stade Brestois 29	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	H Lyon	L	0 - 2

Lille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Nice	L	2 - 1
13 Sep	H Estac Troyes	W	2 - 0
08 Sep	H Real Betis	L	2 - 3
03 Sep	A Toulouse	W	0 - 1
28 Aug	H Paris Saint Germain	D	2 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2