Lyon vs Le Havre Prognose

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 2

Post on X

Le Havre

Away

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Lyon

61%

24%

15%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Lyon vs. Le Havre Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Lyon eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 61%, für Le Havre 15% und für ein Unentschieden 24%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 29 Aug 2026, 20:42.

Match Report

Lyon were held to a frustrating 1–1 draw by Le Havre in Ligue 1, despite dominating possession with 57% and generating an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to the visitors' 0.66. The first half ended goalless, though Ayumu Seko picked up a yellow card just before the break, and a VAR review in the 65th minute ruled out a Corentin Tolisso goal for offside, denying Lyon what would have been the opener.

Le Havre struck against the run of play through Mbwana Ally Samatta in the 74th minute, before Lyon levelled when Loïs Openda equalised three minutes from time. A late VAR check then disallowed a Sota Nakamura effort for handball deep into stoppage time, denying Le Havre a dramatic winner. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lyon win as the most likely outcome at 61%, though the hosts ultimately could not convert that advantage into three points.

Despite the share of the spoils, Lyon will feel aggrieved given their territorial dominance and the series of VAR interventions that shaped the contest's final outcome.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 41'

Ayumu Seko Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Kaïl Boudache ⇄ Malick Fofana

61' ⇄

Mads Bidstrup ⇄ Noah Nartey

62' ⇄

⇄ 65'

⇄ Fodé Doucouré

⇄ 65'

Kaito Mizuta ⇄ Josh Maja

Corentin Tolisso Goal Disallowed - offside

65' 🖵

⚽ 0–1 74'

Mbwana Ally Samatta assist: Fodé Doucouré

⇄ 76'

Timothee Pembele ⇄ Enzo Koffi

⇄ 76'

Simon Ebonog ⇄ Sota Nakamura

Ernest Nuamah ⇄ Pavel Šulc

80' ⇄

Nicolás Tagliafico ⇄ Abner Vinícius

80' ⇄

Loïs Openda assist: Zachary Athekame

87' ⚽ 1–1

🖵 90+2'

Sota Nakamura Goal Disallowed - handball

▮ 90+7'

Fodé Doucouré Yellow Card

FT 1–1

Lyon

Match Stats

Le Havre

57% Ball Possession 43%

1.61 Expected Goals (xG) 0.66

13 Total Shots 12

5 Shots on Goal 4

5 Shots off Goal 5

3 Blocked Shots 3

11 Shots insidebox 8

2 Shots outsidebox 4

5 Corner Kicks 5

5 Offsides 3

7 Fouls 16

0 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

457 Total passes 345

388 Passes accurate 286

85% Passes % 83%

-0.12 goals_prevented -0.12

Lyon

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Loïs Openda F	8.0	98'	1	–	3	11 (8%)	1
13 Zachary Athekame D	8.0	98'	–	1	–	44 (40%)	1
1 Dominik Greif G	7.5	98'	–	–	–	35 (31%)	–
7 Ernest Nuamah M	7.3	80'	–	–	2	30 (26%)	–
23 Tyler Morton M	7.3	98'	–	–	–	56 (47%)	3
19 Moussa Niakhaté D	6.9	98'	–	–	–	67 (59%)	–
20 Felix Bacher D	6.9	98'	–	–	–	59 (54%)	2
16 Abner Vinícius D	6.7	18'	–	–	–	13 (8%)	–
26 Kaïl Boudache M	6.6	61'	–	–	–	21 (17%)	1
11 Malick Fofana F	6.6	37'	–	–	1	9 (7%)	1
3 Nicolás Tagliafico D	6.5	80'	–	–	–	40 (34%)	1
99 Noah Nartey M	6.5	36'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
10 Pavel Šulc M	6.3	18'	–	–	1	2 (2%)	–
8 Corentin Tolisso M	6.3	98'	–	–	3	41 (30%)	–
2 Mads Bidstrup M	6.3	62'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	–

Le Havre

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
26 Simon Ebonog M	7.2	76'	–	–	1	31 (28%)	2
25 Mbwana Ally Samatta F	7.2	91'	1	–	1	24 (16%)	–
77 Lionel Mpasi Nzau G	7.0	98'	–	–	–	42 (27%)	–
7 Amir Richardson M	7.0	98'	–	–	1	43 (39%)	4
33 Djibril Sow M	6.9	65'	–	–	1	25 (19%)	2
15 Ayumu Seko D	6.9	98'	–	–	1	34 (30%)	2
5 Ahmed Touba D	6.9	98'	–	–	–	44 (39%)	2
14 Rassoul Ndiaye F	6.9	98'	–	–	1	23 (18%)	3
17 Kaito Mizuta F	6.9	65'	–	–	2	18 (15%)	1
32 Timothee Pembele M	6.7	76'	–	–	–	17 (15%)	2
13 Fodé Doucouré D	6.6	33'	–	1	–	8 (5%)	1
6 Junior Mwanga D	6.6	98'	–	–	–	22 (22%)	1
27 Enzo Koffi F	6.6	22'	–	–	1	3 (3%)	–
30 Sota Nakamura F	6.3	22'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	1
9 Josh Maja F	6.2	33'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	–
23 Vincent Sasso D	—	7'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Medium (61%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Lyon

Most likely score

1:0 · 13.3%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Lyon

WWDWD

Le Havre

LDLDL

Last 3 meetings Lyon · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 match, Lyon will face Le Havre. Lyon has demonstrated strong offensive capabilities, scoring an average of 2 goals per match in the previous season, while Le Havre struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match. Lyon's midfield dominance will be crucial, as they maintain a possession rate of around 60%, enabling them to control the tempo. Conversely, Le Havre will need to capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities to exploit any gaps in Lyon's defense. Overall, Lyon is favored due to their attacking prowess and midfield strength.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Le Havre goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	11	6	3	1
1	13	13	5	1
2	12	9	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Lyon goals · most likely 1–0 (13.3%)

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Players in form

Lyon

E. Nuamah 3 gls

Z. Athekame 2 gls

Le Havre

M. Samatta 2 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

76% Home (No Draw) 24% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

30% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

55% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 17% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.8%	5.8%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
1	13.3%	13.2%	4.6%	1.2%	0.2%
2	11.8%	9.3%	3.7%	1.0%	0.2%
3	6.2%	4.9%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%
4	2.5%	2.0%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Lyon	Draw	Le Havre
Lyon	35.2%	3.2%	0.6%
Draw	18.6%	18.7%	6.0%
Le Havre	2.2%	4.3%	11.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

53%

1.5

47%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

45%

36%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Lyon vs Le Havre

2 Lyon Wins

1 Draws

0 Le Havre Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Mar 2026	Le Havre	0 - 0	Lyon
14 Dec 2025	Lyon	1 - 0	Le Havre
16 Mar 2025	Lyon	4 - 2	Le Havre

Alle 6 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Lyon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Rennes	W	4 - 0
16 Sep	A Anderlecht	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	A Paris FC	D	0 - 0
04 Sep	H Auxerre	W	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Le Havre	D	1 - 1

Le Havre — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Toulouse	L	3 - 2
12 Sep	H Angers	D	0 - 0
05 Sep	H Stade Brestois 29	L	1 - 2
29 Aug	A Lyon	D	1 - 1
23 Aug	H Monaco	L	0 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2