Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 Prognose

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 1

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Stade Brestois 29

Away

Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans

KI-Tipp Le Mans oder Unentschieden

44%

27%

29%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Le Mans vs. Stade Brestois 29 Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Le Mans eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 44%, für Stade Brestois 29 29% und für ein Unentschieden 27%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 23 Aug 2026, 03:00.

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Match Report

Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29 shared the spoils in a 2–2 draw in the opening round of Ligue 1, with both sides trading goals either side of half-time. Romain Del Castillo broke the deadlock for Brest in the 31st minute, before Le Mans levelled just before the interval. The hosts then edged ahead shortly after the restart, only for Kamory Doumbia to equalise for Brest in the 62nd minute and ensure the points were split.

Despite the draw, the statistics painted a clearer picture of Brest's dominance in terms of creativity — the visitors registered 13 total shots to Le Mans' eight and held an expected goals figure of 1.65 compared to just 0.69 for the home side. Brest also earned all four corner kicks on the night, though Le Mans showed resilience to hold on for a point.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Le Mans win as the most likely outcome at 44%, a call that ultimately fell short as neither side could secure all three points on what proved to be an evenly contested opening-day fixture.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 31'

Romain Del Castillo assist: Kamory Doumbia

▮ 43'

Ludovic Ajorque Yellow Card

45+2' ⚽ 1–1

HT 1–1

Yellow Card

51' ▮

55' ⚽ 2–1

⚽ 2–2 62'

Kamory Doumbia

63' ⇄

⇄ 63'

Joseph Nonge

⇄ 71'

Romain Del Castillo ⇄ Mama Baldé

⇄ 71'

Pathé Mboup

72' ⇄

81' ⇄

⇄ 89'

Kamory Doumbia

FT 2–2

Le Mans

Match Stats

Stade Brestois 29

51% Ball Possession 49%

0.69 Expected Goals (xG) 1.65

8 Total Shots 13

5 Shots on Goal 5

2 Shots off Goal 7

1 Blocked Shots 1

5 Shots insidebox 13

3 Shots outsidebox 0

0 Corner Kicks 4

3 Offsides 2

11 Fouls 9

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 3

318 Total passes 296

254 Passes accurate 233

80% Passes % 79%

-0.70 goals_prevented -0.70

Le Mans

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
14 Louis Mafouta F	7.6	63'	1	1	2	13 (9%)	–
18 Lucas Buades M	7.2	67'	–	–	1	27 (20%)	2
25 Dame Gueye F	6.9	67'	1	–	1	21 (14%)	1
98 Nicolas Kocik G	6.6	67'	–	–	–	41 (28%)	–
15 Noa Boissé D	6.6	67'	–	–	–	35 (34%)	2
26 Rayan Bamba D	6.5	67'	–	–	–	54 (50%)	–
11 Adil Bourabaa M	6.3	67'	–	1	–	24 (19%)	2
8 Alexandre Lauray M	6.3	63'	–	–	–	27 (18%)	1
21 Théo Eyoum D	6.2	67'	–	–	–	31 (30%)	1
9 Antoine Rabillard M	6.2	67'	–	–	1	19 (14%)	1
76 Yasser Larouci M	6.2	67'	–	–	2	25 (17%)	–
29 Lucas Bretelle M	—	4'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
28 Erwan Colas F	—	4'	–	–	–	–	–

Stade Brestois 29

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Romain Del Castillo M	7.9	67'	1	–	1	31 (23%)	2
23 Kamory Doumbia M	7.6	67'	1	1	2	35 (31%)	2
13 Joris Chotard M	7.0	67'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	1
7 Joseph Nonge M	6.7	63'	–	–	–	14 (9%)	2
1 Egil Selvik G	6.5	67'	–	–	–	16 (10%)	–
70 Kenny Lala D	6.5	67'	–	–	–	36 (22%)	–
19 Ludovic Ajorque F	6.5	67'	–	–	3	16 (13%)	–
2 Bradley Locko D	6.3	67'	–	–	–	30 (25%)	2
71 Raphaël Le Guen D	6.3	67'	–	–	3	34 (30%)	1
29 Lucas Tousart D	6.2	67'	–	–	1	29 (23%)	1
9 Pathé Mboup M	6.0	67'	–	–	2	15 (13%)	2
6 Mamady Diambou M	—	4'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	1

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Confidence Low (44%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Le Mans oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.5%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Le Mans

WDDLD

Stade Brestois 29

LLWDD

Match summary

Le Mans will face Stade Brestois 29 in a Ligue 1 clash, where both teams will look to establish early momentum in the season. Le Mans, returning to Ligue 1, will aim to leverage their tactical discipline and defensive resilience, having secured a solid mix of experienced players and youth. Stade Brestois 29 boasts a more seasoned squad, with a focus on maintaining possession and creating scoring opportunities through their midfield dominance. Key battles in midfield and defensive organization will likely dictate the match's outcome. This encounter is critical for both teams to set the tone for the season ahead.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Stade Brestois 29 goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	8	5	3	1
1	10	12	6	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	6	6	3	1
4	3	3	1
5	1	1

↑ Le Mans goals · most likely 1–1 (12.5%)

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Players in form

Le Mans

A. Bourabaa 3 gls

L. Mafouta 3 gls

Stade Brestois 29

K. Doumbia 4 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

44%

Away Win

29%

Draw

27%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

44%

Away Win

29%

Draw

27%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

74% Home (No Draw) 26% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

31% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

55% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 19% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	4.7%	3.0%	1.0%	0.3%
1	9.6%	12.5%	5.5%	1.8%	0.5%
2	10.0%	10.0%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
3	6.0%	6.0%	3.0%	1.0%	0.3%
4	2.7%	2.7%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

58%

1.5

42%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Le Mans	Draw	Stade Brestois 29
Le Mans	37.0%	4.2%	1.3%
Draw	16.7%	15.9%	7.5%
Stade Brestois 29	2.3%	3.9%	11.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

46%

1.5

54%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Le Mans — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Lorient	W	2 - 1
13 Sep	H Lens	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	A Nice	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	A Rennes	L	3 - 2
22 Aug	H Stade Brestois 29	D	2 - 2

Stade Brestois 29 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Auxerre	L	2 - 1
13 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	0 - 1
05 Sep	A Le Havre	W	1 - 2
29 Aug	H Toulouse	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	A Le Mans	D	2 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Le Mans

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: P. Videira

98 Kocik

26 Bamba

21 Eyoum

15 Boissé

76 Larouci

9 Rabillard

8 Lauray

11 Bourabaa

18 Buades

14 Mafouta

25 Gueye

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
98	Nicolas Kocik	G
15	Noa Boissé	D
21	Théo Eyoum	D
26	Rayan Bamba	D
18	Lucas Buades	M
11	Adil Bourabaa	M
8	Alexandre Lauray	M
9	Antoine Rabillard	M
76	Yasser Larouci	M
25	Dame Gueye	F
14	Louis Mafouta	F

Substitutes

29	Lucas Bretelle	M
28	Erwan Colas	F
1	Ewan Hatfout	G
16	Raúl Torrente	D
19	Djibril Sidibé	D
22	Lucas Calodat	D
24	Milan Robin	M
20	William Harhouz	F
7	Billal Brahimi	F

Stade Brestois 29

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Julien Lachuer

1 Selvik

2 Locko

71 Guen

29 Tousart

70 Lala

7 Nonge

13 Chotard

9 Mboup

23 Doumbia

10 Castillo

19 Ajorque

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Egil Selvik	G
70	Kenny Lala	D
29	Lucas Tousart	D
71	Raphaël Le Guen	D
2	Bradley Locko	D
13	Joris Chotard	M
7	Joseph Nonge	M
10	Romain Del Castillo	M
23	Kamory Doumbia	M
9	Pathé Mboup	M
19	Ludovic Ajorque	F

Substitutes

6	Mamady Diambou	M
49	Romain Cagnon	G
20	Luc Zogbé	D
34	Evan Mailly	D
4	Gautier Lloris	D
11	Axel Camblan	M
33	Hamidou Makalou	M
32	Mathis Lainé	M
17	Mama Baldé	F