Toulouse vs Lyon Prognose

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 1

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Lyon

Away

Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

KI-Tipp Zu knapp für eine klare Prognose

37%

28%

35%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Toulouse vs. Lyon Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Toulouse eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 37%, für Lyon 35% und für ein Unentschieden 28%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 23 Aug 2026, 03:00.

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Heimteam trifft 75%
Auswärtsteam trifft 72%
1st Half Home or Draw 74%
2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
Unter 3,5 Tore 72%

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Match Report

Lyon claimed a comfortable 2–0 victory at Toulouse in the opening round of Ligue 1, though the match remained goalless at half-time despite the visitors already showing clear attacking intent. Toulouse picked up an early yellow card in the 31st minute, with Noah Nartey also booked before the break, and the hosts struggled to create meaningful chances throughout, managing just one shot on target against Lyon's 17 total attempts.

The game opened up after a flurry of substitutions around the hour mark. Nartey broke the deadlock in the 68th minute with a normal goal, only to be substituted off just a minute later. Malick Fofana then wrapped up the win in the 85th minute, securing Lyon's dominant display. The expected goals figures told the story clearly — Lyon posted an impressive 2.63 xG compared to Toulouse's meagre 0.16.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Toulouse win as the most likely outcome at 37%, a call that proved well wide of the mark. Tanner Tessmann received a late yellow card in stoppage time, but by then Lyon had long since settled the contest.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Yellow Card

31' ▮

▮ 45'

Noah Nartey Yellow Card

HT 0–0

⇄ 63'

Julien Duranville ⇄ Malick Fofana

⇄ 63'

Rémi Himbert ⇄ Pavel Šulc

⚽ 0–1 68'

Noah Nartey assist: Pavel Šulc

⇄ 69'

Mathys de Carvalho ⇄ Corentin Tolisso

⇄ 69'

Noah Nartey ⇄ Tyler Morton

Julian Vignolo ⇄ Ilyas Azizi

71' ⇄

Santiago Hidalgo ⇄ Jacen Russell-Rowe

71' ⇄

⇄ 80'

Mads Bidstrup ⇄ Tanner Tessmann

Yann Gboho ⇄ Sion Oppong

80' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 85'

Malick Fofana assist: Corentin Tolisso

86' ⇄

▮ 90+4'

Tanner Tessmann Yellow Card

FT 0–2

Toulouse

Match Stats

Lyon

47% Ball Possession 53%

2.63 Expected Goals (xG) 0.16

17 Total Shots 6

2 Shots on Goal 1

12 Shots off Goal 3

3 Blocked Shots 2

13 Shots insidebox 4

4 Shots outsidebox 2

6 Corner Kicks 4

2 Offsides 0

11 Fouls 10

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 2

306 Total passes 352

268 Passes accurate 310

88% Passes % 88%

0.34 goals_prevented 0.34

Toulouse

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
31 Niklas Schmidt M	7.3	70'	–	–	–	40 (38%)	2
8 Thomas Jørgensen M	7.2	70'	–	–	1	23 (18%)	3
2 Rasmus Nicolaisen D	7.2	70'	–	–	2	40 (39%)	1
23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M	7.2	70'	–	–	1	48 (42%)	2
7 Julian Vignolo M	6.9	70'	–	–	3	7 (4%)	1
3 Mark McKenzie D	6.7	70'	–	–	–	42 (39%)	–
10 Yann Gboho M	6.7	70'	–	–	2	21 (18%)	–
94 Ismail Diallo D	6.5	70'	–	–	–	23 (15%)	2
16 Guillaume Restes G	6.2	70'	–	–	–	31 (29%)	–
9 Santiago Hidalgo F	6.2	70'	–	–	3	7 (6%)	–
12 Christ Tapé D	6.2	70'	–	–	2	24 (20%)	–

Lyon

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
22 Clinton Mata D	7.3	70'	–	–	–	69 (68%)	–
99 Noah Nartey M	7.3	69'	1	–	1	21 (16%)	1
40 Rémy Descamps G	7.3	70'	–	–	–	30 (24%)	–
13 Zachary Athekame D	6.9	70'	–	–	–	33 (28%)	2
20 Felix Bacher D	6.9	70'	–	–	–	57 (55%)	–
26 Kaïl Boudache F	6.9	70'	–	–	3	15 (15%)	1
24 Julien Duranville F	6.7	63'	–	–	–	22 (20%)	–
39 Mathys de Carvalho M	6.6	69'	–	–	–	28 (23%)	2
76 Mohamed Ouédraogo D	6.6	70'	–	–	–	48 (38%)	–
2 Mads Bidstrup M	6.6	70'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	3
45 Rémi Himbert F	6.0	63'	–	–	–	10 (7%)	–
10 Pavel Šulc M	—	7'	–	1	–	2 (2%)	–
23 Tyler Morton M	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–
8 Corentin Tolisso M	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–
11 Malick Fofana F	—	7'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–

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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Zu knapp für eine klare Prognose

Most likely score

1:1 · 14%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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Toulouse

WDLDL

Lyon

WWDWD

Last 3 meetings Toulouse · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Toulouse will face Lyon, both teams looking to assert their early-season form. Toulouse's defensive metrics indicate a solid backline, conceding only 1.2 goals per match on average last season, while their attack has shown promise with a 1.5 goals per game average. Lyon, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency, finishing the previous season with a -2 goal difference. Their offense, averaging 1.3 goals per match, will need to be more clinical to capitalize on any defensive lapses from Toulouse. This matchup will be crucial for both teams in establishing momentum for the season ahead.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lyon goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	7	6	2	1
1	8	14	8	3	1
2	7	9	6	2	1
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Toulouse goals · most likely 1–1 (14.0%)

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Players in form

Toulouse

C. Tengstedt 3 gls

T. Jørgensen 2 gls

Lyon

E. Nuamah 3 gls

Z. Athekame 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Away Win

35%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Away Win

35%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

53% Home (No Draw) 47% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Home Win by 2+ 15% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Home Scores More 33% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.6%	7.4%	5.8%	2.5%	0.8%
1	8.0%	14.0%	8.0%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.6%	8.6%	5.5%	2.4%	0.8%
3	3.1%	3.9%	2.5%	1.1%	0.4%
4	1.1%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Toulouse	Draw	Lyon
Toulouse	24.7%	5.0%	2.1%
Draw	12.2%	18.0%	12.4%
Lyon	1.7%	4.1%	19.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Toulouse vs Lyon

2 Toulouse Wins

1 Draws

0 Lyon Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 May 2026	Toulouse	2 - 1	Lyon
05 Oct 2025	Lyon	1 - 2	Toulouse
18 Jan 2025	Lyon	0 - 0	Toulouse

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Toulouse — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Le Havre	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	A Lorient	D	2 - 2
03 Sep	H Lille	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Stade Brestois 29	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	H Lyon	L	0 - 2

Lyon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Rennes	W	4 - 0
16 Sep	A Anderlecht	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	A Paris FC	D	0 - 0
04 Sep	H Auxerre	W	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Le Havre	D	1 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Lyon

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Paulo Fonseca

40 Descamps

76 Ouédraogo

22 Mata

20 Bacher

13 Athekame

99 Nartey

39 Carvalho

2 Bidstrup

24 Duranville

45 Himbert

26 Boudache

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
40	Rémy Descamps	G
13	Zachary Athekame	D
20	Felix Bacher	D
22	Clinton Mata	D
76	Mohamed Ouédraogo	D
2	Mads Bidstrup	M
39	Mathys de Carvalho	M
99	Noah Nartey	M
26	Kaïl Boudache	F
45	Rémi Himbert	F
24	Julien Duranville	F

Substitutes

11	Malick Fofana	F
10	Pavel Šulc	M
23	Tyler Morton	M
8	Corentin Tolisso	M
1	Dominik Greif	G
3	Nicolás Tagliafico	D
6	Tanner Tessmann	M
7	Ernest Nuamah	F
17	Loïs Openda	F

Toulouse

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Jens Askou

16 Restes

12 Tapé

2 Nicolaisen

3 McKenzie

94 Diallo

31 Schmidt

23 Jr.

10 Gboho

8 Jørgensen

7 Vignolo

9 Hidalgo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	Guillaume Restes	G
94	Ismail Diallo	D
3	Mark McKenzie	D
2	Rasmus Nicolaisen	D
12	Christ Tapé	D
23	Cristian Cásseres Jr.	M
31	Niklas Schmidt	M
7	Julian Vignolo	M
8	Thomas Jørgensen	M
10	Yann Gboho	M
9	Santiago Hidalgo	F

Substitutes

60	Mathys Niflore	G
19	David Odogu	D
5	Seny Koumbassa	D
77	Mario Sauer	M
28	Mathis Saka	M
22	Rafik Messali	M
11	Sion Oppong	F
13	Jacen Russell Rowe	F
37	Ilyas Azizi	F