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Lazio vs AC Milan Prognose

Serie A Serie A · Regular Season - 4
FT
Post on X
Lazio

Lazio

Home
2 : 2
HT 2 - 0
AC Milan

AC Milan

Away
KI-Tipp AC Milan oder Unentschieden
29%
31%
40%
Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Lazio vs. AC Milan Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Lazio eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 29%, für AC Milan 40% und für ein Unentschieden 31%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 12 Sep 2026, 17:57.

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  • 2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
  • Auswärtsteam trifft 73%
  • 1st Half Home or Draw 73%
  • Über 1,5 Tore 70%
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Match Report

Lazio dominated the early exchanges and were rewarded with a two-goal cushion inside the first half. Matteo Cancellieri opened the scoring in the 10th minute before Tijjani Noslin doubled the advantage just before the break, leaving AC Milan with a significant deficit to overcome at half-time.

Milan responded decisively after the interval, with a triple substitution at the start of the second half signalling clear intent. Diego Moreira proved the catalyst for the comeback, netting twice in quick succession in the 65th and 67th minutes to level the match. The turnaround was remarkable given Milan's two-goal deficit, and our pre-match AI model had rated a Milan win as the most likely outcome at 40%. A feisty spell mid-match saw yellow cards distributed to Pulišić, Belahyane, and Pavlović within the space of five minutes.

Despite holding the ball for just 34% of the game, Lazio's xG of 2.05 reflected their clinical efficiency in the first half. Milan's 16 total shots underlined their attacking persistence, though both sides ultimately had to settle for a point in what proved a dramatic Serie A encounter.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Matteo Cancellieri assist: Mattia Zaccagni
10' ⚽ 1–0
Tijjani Noslin
39' ⚽ 2–0
HT 2–0
⇄ 46'
Ruben Loftus-Cheek ⇄ Christian Pulišić
⇄ 46'
Pervis Estupiñán ⇄ Diego Moreira
⇄ 46'
Luka Modrić ⇄ Yunus Musah
Matteo Cancellieri ⇄ Gustav Isaksen
58' ⇄
Tijjani Noslin ⇄ Andrea Pinamonti
58' ⇄
▮ 59'
Christian Pulišić Yellow Card
Reda Belahyane Yellow Card
63' ▮
▮ 64'
Strahinja Pavlović Yellow Card
⚽ 2–1 65'
Diego Moreira assist: Christian Pulišić
⚽ 2–2 67'
Diego Moreira assist: Adrien Rabiot
Kenneth Taylor ⇄ Albert Guðmundsson
74' ⇄
⇄ 77'
Alphadjo Cissè ⇄ Omari Hutchinson
Mattia Zaccagni Yellow Card
78' ▮
Josip Šutalo ⇄ Diogo Leite
84' ⇄
Romano Floriani Mussolini ⇄ Manuel Lazzari
84' ⇄
⇄ 85'
Gonçalo Ramos ⇄ Francesco Camarda
▮ 86'
Mario Gila Fuentes Yellow Card
FT 2–2
Lazio

Match Stats

AC Milan
34% Ball Possession 66%
2.05 Expected Goals (xG) 1.08
8 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Goal 7
2 Shots off Goal 5
0 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 11
1 Shots outsidebox 5
2 Corner Kicks 5
2 Offsides 1
15 Fouls 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
Red Cards
5 Goalkeeper Saves 4
313 Total passes 624
258 Passes accurate 567
82% Passes % 91%
0.72 goals_prevented 0.72
Lazio
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
14 Tijjani Noslin F 7.5 58' 1 – 2 11 (7%) –
35 Christos Mandas G 7.5 94' – – – 36 (25%) –
10 Mattia Zaccagni F 7.5 94' – 1 3 31 (20%) 2
22 Matteo Cancellieri F 7.2 58' 1 – 1 7 (6%) 2
16 Davide Frattesi M 7.0 94' – – 2 22 (19%) 1
17 Nuno Tavares D 6.9 94' – – – 37 (31%) 2
21 Reda Belahyane M 6.9 94' – – – 28 (26%) 3
24 Kenneth Taylor M 6.7 74' – – – 31 (28%) 1
29 Manuel Lazzari M 6.7 10' – – – 2 (2%) –
11 Gustav Isaksen F 6.5 36' – – – 6 (3%) –
15 Romano Floriani Mussolini D 6.3 84' – – – 22 (17%) 3
25 Oliver Provstgaard D 6.3 94' – – – 42 (42%) –
2 Diogo Leite D 6.3 10' – – – 4 (4%) –
80 Albert Guðmundsson F 6.2 20' – – – 5 (4%) –
9 Andrea Pinamonti F 6.2 36' – – – 5 (3%) –
37 Josip Šutalo D 6.0 84' – – – 24 (21%) –
AC Milan
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
22 Diego Moreira F 9.0 49' 2 – 3 25 (23%) –
16 Mike Maignan G 7.5 94' – – – 35 (27%) –
21 Samuel Chukwueze M 7.2 94' – – 2 60 (53%) –
34 Mario Gila Fuentes D 7.2 94' – – 1 74 (65%) 3
11 Christian Pulišić M 6.9 49' – 1 1 21 (21%) –
80 Yunus Musah M 6.9 49' – – – 32 (29%) 1
5 Koni De Winter D 6.6 94' – – – 80 (80%) 1
9 Gonçalo Ramos F 6.6 85' – – 1 14 (13%) 2
2 Pervis Estupiñán M 6.5 45' – – – 28 (26%) –
12 Adrien Rabiot M 6.5 94' – 1 – 61 (56%) –
31 Strahinja Pavlović D 6.5 94' – – 2 89 (84%) 1
73 Francesco Camarda F 6.5 9' – – – 3 (2%) –
8 Ruben Loftus-Cheek F 6.3 45' – – – 17 (14%) –
20 Omari Hutchinson F 6.3 17' – – 1 7 (6%) –
70 Alphadjo Cissè F 6.3 77' – – 1 35 (31%) –
14 Luka Modrić M 6.2 45' – – – 43 (37%) –
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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung
AC Milan oder Unentschieden
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Lazio
WDWWW
AC Milan
WLDDW
Last 3 meetings Lazio · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Lazio faces AC Milan in a crucial Serie A clash. Lazio has shown strong home form, boasting a solid defensive record, while AC Milan has been potent in attack, ranking among the league leaders in goals scored. Both teams are vying for European competition spots, making this match pivotal. Key players to watch include Lazio's top scorer and Milan's creative midfielder, who have been instrumental in their teams' recent performances. Expect a tactical battle as both sides seek to capitalize on their strengths.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
29%
45%
Draw
31%
45%
Away
40%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Lazio
D. Frattesi 3 gls
AC Milan
Diego Moreira 3 gls
A. Rabiot 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Lazio vs AC Milan

2 Lazio Wins
0 Draws
1 AC Milan Wins
Date Home Score Away
15 Mar 2026 Lazio 1 - 0 AC Milan
29 Nov 2025 AC Milan 1 - 0 Lazio
02 Mar 2025 AC Milan 1 - 2 Lazio
Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Lazio — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep A Venezia W 0 - 2
12 Sep H AC Milan D 2 - 2
07 Sep A Udinese W 1 - 2
30 Aug H Genoa W 1 - 0
24 Aug A Bologna W 0 - 1

AC Milan — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
20 Sep H Lecce W 3 - 0
16 Sep H Benfica L 0 - 2
12 Sep A Lazio D 2 - 2
06 Sep A Juventus D 1 - 1
28 Aug H Venezia W 2 - 0

Serie A Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
AS Roma
5 4 1 0 +11 13
2
Inter
5 4 1 0 +7 13
3
Lazio
5 4 1 0 +5 13
4
Cagliari
5 4 0 1 +3 12
5
AC Milan
5 3 2 0 +6 11
6
Frosinone
5 3 1 1 +5 10
7
Juventus
5 3 1 1 +4 10
8
Como
5 3 1 1 +3 10
9
Napoli
5 2 1 2 +1 7
10
Sassuolo
5 2 1 2 0 7
11
Atalanta
5 2 0 3 -2 6
12
Lecce
5 2 0 3 -5 6
13
Udinese
5 1 1 3 -3 4
14
Torino
5 1 1 3 -3 4
15
Parma
5 1 1 3 -3 4
16
Monza
5 1 1 3 -4 4
17
Fiorentina
5 1 1 3 -6 4
18
Bologna
5 0 2 3 -3 2
19
Genoa
5 0 1 4 -7 1
20
Venezia
5 0 0 5 -9 0

Lazio

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Gennaro Gattuso
35 Mandas
17 Tavares
25 Provstgaard
37 Šutalo
15 Mussolini
24 Taylor
21 Belahyane
16 Frattesi
10 Zaccagni
14 Noslin
22 Cancellieri

Starting XI

# Player Pos
35 Christos Mandas G
15 Romano Floriani Mussolini D
37 Josip Šutalo D
25 Oliver Provstgaard D
17 Nuno Tavares D
16 Davide Frattesi M
21 Reda Belahyane M
24 Kenneth Taylor M
22 Matteo Cancellieri F
14 Tijjani Noslin F
10 Mattia Zaccagni F

Substitutes

11 Gustav Isaksen F
9 Andrea Pinamonti F
80 Albert Guðmundsson F
47 Davide Renzetti G
40 Edoardo Motta G
33 Ricardo Bordon D
23 Alfonso Pedraza D
29 Manuel Lazzari M
2 Diogo Leite D
71 Valerio Farcomeni M
28 Adrian Przyborek M
32 Danilo Cataldi M
63 Federico Serra F

AC Milan

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Ruben Amorim
16 Maignan
31 Pavlović
5 Winter
34 Gila
2 Estupiñán
12 Rabiot
14 Modrić
21 Chukwueze
70 Cissè
8 Loftus-Cheek
9 Ramos

Starting XI

# Player Pos
16 Mike Maignan G
34 Mario Gila D
5 Koni De Winter D
31 Strahinja Pavlović D
21 Samuel Chukwueze M
14 Luka Modrić M
12 Adrien Rabiot M
2 Pervis Estupiñán M
8 Ruben Loftus-Cheek F
70 Alphadjo Cissè F
9 Gonçalo Ramos F

Substitutes

22 Diego Moreira F
80 Yunus Musah M
11 Christian Pulišić M
96 Lorenzo Torriani G
1 Pietro Terracciano G
13 Sankhoun Diawara D
42 Filippo Terracciano D
46 Matteo Gabbia D
23 Fikayo Tomori D
28 Christian Comotto M
33 Davide Bartesaghi D
30 Ardon Jashari M
20 Omari Hutchinson F
56 Alexis Saelemaekers F
73 Francesco Camarda F

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