FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Prognose

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11

28 Nov 2026, 14:30

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Union Berlin

Away

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für FSV Mainz 05

53%

29%

17%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

FSV Mainz 05 vs. Union Berlin Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für FSV Mainz 05 eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 53%, für Union Berlin 17% und für ein Unentschieden 29%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:0 · 14.3%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

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FSV Mainz 05

WLWDW

Union Berlin

LLLDW

Last 3 meetings FSV Mainz 05 · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

FSV Mainz 05 faces Union Berlin in a Bundesliga clash on November 28, 2026. Mainz has shown a solid home record, with a particular strength in controlling possession and creating goal-scoring opportunities, averaging 1.5 goals per match at home this season. Union Berlin, known for their robust defensive organization, will aim to disrupt Mainz's rhythm and capitalize on counter-attacks, boasting an average of 1.2 goals per match on the road. The match could hinge on Mainz's ability to break through Union's defense, while Union will look to exploit any lapses in Mainz's backline. This encounter promises to be a tactical battle between two teams with contrasting styles.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Union Berlin goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	12	6	3	1
1	14	13	4	1
2	12	9	3	1
3	6	4	2
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ FSV Mainz 05 goals · most likely 1–0 (14.3%)

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Players in form

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 4 gls

S. Becker 2 gls

Union Berlin

T. Skarke 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

29%

Away Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

29%

Away Win

17%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

76% Home (No Draw) 24% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

28% Home Win by 2+ 5% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

53% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 17% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

21%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.1%	6.4%	3.0%	0.7%	0.1%
1	14.3%	13.5%	4.5%	1.1%	0.2%
2	11.9%	8.9%	3.4%	0.8%	0.2%
3	6.0%	4.5%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
4	2.2%	1.7%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FSV Mainz 05	Draw	Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05	33.3%	3.6%	0.9%
Draw	19.6%	20.0%	7.5%
Union Berlin	1.9%	3.7%	9.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

56%

1.5

44%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

34%

25%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

47%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin

0 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

1 Draws

2 Union Berlin Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 May 2026	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 3	Union Berlin
10 Jan 2026	Union Berlin	2 - 2	FSV Mainz 05
19 Jan 2025	Union Berlin	2 - 1	FSV Mainz 05

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 4
12 Sep	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
06 Sep	A Hamburger SV	W	0 - 5
29 Aug	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Krieschow	W	0 - 9

Union Berlin — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Bayern München	L	7 - 0
11 Sep	H FC Schalke 04	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Bayer Leverkusen	L	4 - 0
29 Aug	H Eintracht Frankfurt	D	3 - 3
23 Aug	A Eintracht Braunschweig	W	2 - 4

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.