FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Prognose

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7

24 Oct 2026, 13:30

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Werder Bremen

Away

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für FSV Mainz 05

61%

26%

13%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

FSV Mainz 05 vs. Werder Bremen Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für FSV Mainz 05 eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 61%, für Werder Bremen 13% und für ein Unentschieden 26%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:0 · 13.7%

Both teams to score

43%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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FSV Mainz 05

WLWDW

Werder Bremen

WDWLW

Last 3 meetings FSV Mainz 05 · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

FSV Mainz 05 hosts Werder Bremen in a Bundesliga clash on October 24, 2026. Mainz has shown defensive resilience this season, averaging 1.2 goals conceded per match, while Bremen's attacking prowess has been a key asset, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game. Both teams will be looking to solidify their mid-table positions, making this encounter crucial for momentum. The effectiveness of Mainz's defense against Bremen's attack will be pivotal in determining the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

61%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

13%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Werder Bremen goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	5	2	1
1	14	12	4	1
2	13	9	3	1
3	8	5	2
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ FSV Mainz 05 goals · most likely 1–0 (13.7%)

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Players in form

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 4 gls

S. Becker 2 gls

Werder Bremen

N. Füllkrug 3 gls

M. Grüll 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

26%

Away Win

13%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS No 43% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

26%

Away Win

13%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

82% Home (No Draw) 18% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

61% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 13% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS No 43% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	4.7%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%
1	13.7%	12.1%	3.8%	0.9%	0.2%
2	13.2%	9.4%	3.3%	0.8%	0.1%
3	7.7%	5.5%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
4	3.4%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FSV Mainz 05	Draw	Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05	39.0%	3.3%	0.8%
Draw	20.9%	17.2%	5.9%
Werder Bremen	2.2%	3.4%	7.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

48%

1.5

52%

75%

2.5

25%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

49%

35%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

1 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

1 Draws

1 Werder Bremen Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Mar 2026	Werder Bremen	0 - 2	FSV Mainz 05
01 Nov 2025	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 1	Werder Bremen
31 Jan 2025	Werder Bremen	1 - 0	FSV Mainz 05

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 4
12 Sep	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
06 Sep	A Hamburger SV	W	0 - 5
29 Aug	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Krieschow	W	0 - 9

Werder Bremen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H FC Augsburg	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	A 1. FC Köln	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	H RB Leipzig	W	3 - 1
30 Aug	A SC Freiburg	L	4 - 1
22 Aug	A Lüneburger SK Hansa	W	0 - 3

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.