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SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prognose

Bundesliga Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4
FT
Post on X
SC Paderborn 07

SC Paderborn 07

Home
3 : 1
HT 2 - 0
1899 Hoffenheim

1899 Hoffenheim

Away
Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für 1899 Hoffenheim
24%
23%
53%
Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1899 Hoffenheim Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für SC Paderborn 07 eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 24%, für 1899 Hoffenheim 53% und für ein Unentschieden 23%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 20 Sep 2026, 19:22.

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Match Report

SC Paderborn 07 claimed a convincing 3–1 home victory over 1899 Hoffenheim in Bundesliga Matchday 4, despite the visitors dominating possession with 66% of the ball. Paderborn were clinical in the first half, with Santiago Castañeda breaking the deadlock on 29 minutes before Stefano Marino doubled the advantage just before the interval to send the hosts in 2–0 at the break.

Hoffenheim made a bright start to the second half, with Adam Daghim pulling one back five minutes after the restart to give the visitors hope. However, Paderborn restored their two-goal cushion when Steffen Tigges netted on 69 minutes to effectively seal the points. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Hoffenheim win as the most likely outcome at 53%, a call that proved well wide of the mark.

Despite Hoffenheim's territorial dominance, Paderborn's efficiency in front of goal told the real story — the hosts managed just two shots on target from 22 total attempts, yet converted twice, while Hoffenheim's five shots on goal yielded only a single goal.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Santiago Castañeda
29' ⚽ 1–0
Stefano Marino assist: Laurin Curda
42' ⚽ 2–0
▮ 45'
Wouter Burger Yellow Card
⇄ 45'
Mats Rots ⇄ Albian Hajdari
Marvin Pieringer ⇄ Steffen Tigges
45' ⇄
HT 2–0
⚽ 2–1 50'
Adam Daghim assist: Max Moerstedt
⇄ 62'
Adam Hložek ⇄ Patrick Wimmer
⇄ 62'
Max Moerstedt ⇄ Tim Lemperle
Raphael Obermair ⇄ Jonah Sticker
63' ⇄
Steffen Tigges assist: Jonah Sticker
69' ⚽ 3–1
Gabriel Vidović ⇄ Tom Baack
73' ⇄
Stefano Marino ⇄ Rayan Philippe
73' ⇄
Mattes Hansen ⇄ F. Götze
75' ⇄
⇄ 80'
Adam Daghim ⇄ Andrej Kramarić
⇄ 80'
Leon Avdullahu ⇄ Fisnik Asllani
FT 3–1
SC Paderborn 07

Match Stats

1899 Hoffenheim
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Goal 2
3 Shots off Goal 8
5 Blocked Shots 12
7 Shots insidebox 15
6 Shots outsidebox 7
6 Corner Kicks 5
1 Offsides 3
6 Fouls 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
321 Total passes 635
229 Passes accurate 541
14 Free Kicks 6
SC Paderborn 07
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
5 Santiago Castañeda M 8.1 90' 1 – 2 25 (19%) 4
30 Stefano Marino F 7.7 73' 1 – 2 14 (9%) 1
27 Steffen Tigges F 7.6 44' 1 – 3 6 (4%) –
21 Jano Ter-Horst D 7.1 90' – – 1 22 (17%) 4
17 Laurin Curda M 7.1 90' – 1 – 31 (22%) 3
18 Marvin Pieringer F 6.9 46' – – 1 20 (18%) –
25 Tjark Lasse Scheller D 6.8 90' – – – 26 (20%) 2
3 Jonah Sticker M 6.7 27' – 1 – 7 (7%) 2
40 Gabriel Vidović M 6.6 73' – – 1 22 (20%) 1
9 Rayan Philippe F 6.6 17' – – 1 6 (4%) –
6 Tom Baack M 6.5 17' – – – 5 (3%) 2
20 F. Götze D 6.5 15' – – – 3 (2%) 1
22 Mattes Hansen D 6.4 75' – – – 33 (27%) –
23 Raphael Obermair M 6.3 63' – – 2 20 (17%) –
28 Laurin Ulrich M 6.2 90' – – – 29 (19%) 2
15 Nahuel Noll G 6.2 90' – – – 48 (18%) –
1899 Hoffenheim
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
28 K. Machida D 7.0 90' – – 1 85 (80%) 2
14 Adam Daghim M 6.9 80' 1 – 1 30 (17%) –
9 Max Moerstedt F 6.8 62' – 1 – 14 (11%) 1
20 Bambasé Conté M 6.7 90' – – 7 28 (26%) 3
8 Patrick Wimmer M 6.6 28' – – 3 20 (19%) 1
11 Fisnik Asllani F 6.6 10' – – 3 7 (7%) 1
19 Tim Lemperle F 6.5 28' – – – 14 (11%) –
7 Leon Avdullahu M 6.5 80' – – – 66 (60%) 1
21 Albian Hajdari D 6.4 44' – – 2 48 (41%) 2
10 Adam Hložek F 6.3 62' – – 2 25 (19%) –
27 Andrej Kramarić F 6.3 10' – – – 10 (10%) –
5 Ozan Kabak D 6.2 90' – – – 72 (62%) 3
39 Mats Rots D 6.2 46' – – – 46 (41%) 2
34 Vladimír Coufal D 6.1 90' – – 1 59 (47%) 2
18 Wouter Burger M 6.1 90' – – 2 64 (50%) 2
1 Oliver Baumann G 5.7 90' – – – 42 (37%) –
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Confidence Medium (53%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung
Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für 1899 Hoffenheim
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SC Paderborn 07
WLLDW
1899 Hoffenheim
LLWLL
Last 3 meetings SC Paderborn 07 · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, SC Paderborn 07 will face 1899 Hoffenheim. Paderborn, looking for a boost after a mixed start to the season, will rely on their home form, where they typically perform better. Hoffenheim, known for their attacking prowess, will aim to exploit any defensive vulnerabilities Paderborn may have shown early in the campaign. Key players to watch include Paderborn's leading goal scorer, who could be pivotal in breaking down Hoffenheim's defense. A tactical battle is expected, with both teams needing to solidify their defensive structures to secure points.

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: SC Paderborn 07 leads 3-1. Win probability: 95.8%. Comeback chance: 4.2%.

71' Goal 85% sure

SC Paderborn 07 now leads 3-1 with 94% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 52.2%.

52' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 2-1. SC Paderborn 07 win: 60.2%. BTTS: 100%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 2-0. SC Paderborn 07 leads. Win probability: 81.8%. Over 0.5 more goals: 81.6%.

43' Goal 85% sure

SC Paderborn 07 now leads 2-0 with 81% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 82.9%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
24%
10%
Draw
23%
45%
Away
53%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

SC Paderborn 07

No scorer data.

1899 Hoffenheim
A. Daghim 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Warum diese Auswahl? · Premium KI Deep-Dive · Premium

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Head to Head: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim

0 SC Paderborn 07 Wins
2 Draws
1 1899 Hoffenheim Wins
Date Home Score Away
23 May 2020 SC Paderborn 07 1 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim
01 Nov 2019 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 0 SC Paderborn 07
21 Mar 2015 SC Paderborn 07 0 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim
Alle 4 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

SC Paderborn 07 — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
20 Sep H 1899 Hoffenheim W 3 - 1
12 Sep A Borussia Dortmund L 3 - 0
05 Sep H SC Freiburg L 0 - 1
29 Aug A FSV Mainz 05 D 0 - 0
23 Aug A Phönix Lübeck W 2 - 4

1899 Hoffenheim — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
20 Sep A SC Paderborn 07 L 3 - 1
17 Sep A OFI L 2 - 0
12 Sep H VfB Stuttgart W 2 - 1
05 Sep H Borussia Dortmund L 2 - 3
29 Aug A 1. FC Köln L 3 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Borussia Dortmund
4 4 0 0 +7 12
2
Bayern München
4 3 1 0 +12 10
3
SC Freiburg
4 3 1 0 +9 10
4
FC Augsburg
4 2 1 1 +5 7
5
Bayer Leverkusen
4 2 1 1 +5 7
6
FSV Mainz 05
4 2 1 1 +4 7
7
SV Elversberg
4 2 1 1 +1 7
8
Werder Bremen
4 2 1 1 0 7
9
RB Leipzig
4 2 0 2 +4 6
10
Eintracht Frankfurt
4 1 2 1 -1 5
11
FC Schalke 04
4 1 2 1 -1 5
12
SC Paderborn 07
4 1 1 2 -2 4
13
1. FC Köln
4 1 1 2 -3 4
14
1899 Hoffenheim
4 1 0 3 -3 3
15
VfB Stuttgart
4 1 0 3 -3 3
16
Hamburger SV
4 1 0 3 -11 3
17
Union Berlin
4 0 1 3 -13 1
18
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4 0 0 4 -10 0

1899 Hoffenheim

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: C. Ilzer
1 Baumann
39 Rots
28 Machida
5 Kabak
34 Coufal
14 Daghim
18 Burger
7 Avdullahu
20 Conté
9 Moerstedt
10 Hložek

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 O. Baumann G
34 V. Coufal D
5 O. Kabak D
28 K. Machida D
39 M. Rots D
20 B. Conté M
7 L. Avdullahu M
18 W. Burger M
14 A. Daghim M
10 A. Hložek F
9 Max Moerstedt F

Substitutes

17 Nathan De Cat M
15 V. Gendrey D
21 A. Hajdari D
2 R. Hranáč D
27 A. Kramarić F
19 T. Lemperle F
37 L. Philipp G
8 P. Wimmer M
11 F. Asllani F

SC Paderborn 07

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: R. Kettemann
15 Noll
22 Hansen
25 Scheller
21 Horst
23 Obermair
40 Vidović
5 Castañeda
28 Ulrich
17 Curda
30 Marino
18 Pieringer

Starting XI

# Player Pos
15 N. Noll G
21 J. ter Horst D
25 T. Scheller D
22 M. Hansen D
17 L. Curda M
28 L. Ulrich M
5 S. Castañeda M
40 G. Vidović M
23 R. Obermair M
18 M. Pieringer F
30 S. Marino F

Substitutes

27 S. Tigges F
38 D. Zeitler F
6 T. Baack M
20 F. Götze D
11 S. Michel F
2 Ruben Müller F
9 R. Philippe F
1 M. Schubert G
3 Jonah Benedict Sticker M

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