Real Madrid vs Alaves Prognose

La Liga · Regular Season - 14

29 Nov 2026, 16:00

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Alaves

Away

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Alaves

23%

26%

51%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Real Madrid vs. Alaves Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Real Madrid eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 23%, für Alaves 51% und für ein Unentschieden 26%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:1 · 12.2%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

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Real Madrid

LWWWL

Alaves

DLLWW

Last 3 meetings Real Madrid · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

Real Madrid faces Alaves in this La Liga matchup, showcasing a significant disparity in recent form and squad depth. Real Madrid has been strong at home, boasting a high possession percentage (averaging around 63%) and a solid conversion rate with over 15 shots per game. Alaves, on the other hand, struggles defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals per match in recent outings. The key battle will likely hinge on Real's attacking prowess against Alaves' defensive organization. If Madrid maintains their attacking momentum, they could secure a comfortable victory.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Alaves goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	8	8	5	2	1
1	4	12	10	6	3	1
2	3	6	6	4	2	1
3	1	3	2	1	1
4		1	1
5

↑ Real Madrid goals · most likely 1–1 (12.2%)

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Players in form

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 7 gls

J. Bellingham 3 gls

Alaves

L. Boyé 4 gls

M. Díaz 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

51%

Draw

26%

Home Win

23%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

65%

3.5

35%

82%

4.5

18%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

51%

Draw

26%

Home Win

23%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

69% Away (No Draw) 31% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

29% Away Win by 2+ 10% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

51% Away Scores More 26% Equal Goals 23% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

65%

3.5

35%

82%

4.5

18%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.4%	7.7%	8.4%	5.1%	2.3%
1	4.5%	12.2%	9.9%	6.0%	2.8%
2	3.5%	6.4%	5.8%	3.6%	1.6%
3	1.4%	2.5%	2.3%	1.4%	0.6%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Real Madrid	Draw	Alaves
Real Madrid	14.5%	4.8%	3.1%
Draw	8.0%	15.2%	17.2%
Alaves	1.4%	3.9%	31.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

46%

1.5

54%

73%

2.5

27%

90%

3.5

10%

Away Exact Goals

16%

30%

27%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Real Madrid vs Alaves

3 Real Madrid Wins

0 Draws

0 Alaves Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
21 Apr 2026	Real Madrid	2 - 1	Alaves
14 Dec 2025	Alaves	1 - 2	Real Madrid
13 Apr 2025	Alaves	0 - 1	Real Madrid

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
12 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	W	4 - 1
08 Sep	H Inter	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0

Alaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	0 - 0
15 Sep	H Valencia	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Racing Santander	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Osasuna	W	5 - 2
28 Aug	H Villarreal	W	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.