Valencia vs Athletic Club Prognose

La Liga La Liga · Regular Season - 9
FT
Post on X
Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
KI-Tipp Athletic Club oder Unentschieden
29%
30%
41%
Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Valencia vs. Athletic Club Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Valencia eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 29%, für Athletic Club 41% und für ein Unentschieden 30%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 17 Oct 2026, 20:54.

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  • 1st Half Home or Draw 71%
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Match Report

Valencia and Athletic Club played out a goalless draw at Mestalla in La Liga's ninth matchday, a result that perhaps flattered the hosts given the balance of play. Despite Valencia enjoying 63% possession and earning six corners, they mustered just two shots on target and an expected goals figure of only 0.65, suggesting little genuine threat in the final third.

Athletic Club were the more dangerous side throughout, generating 16 total shots, three on target, and an xG of 1.57 — numbers that reflected a team that came closest to breaking the deadlock without the finishing to show for it. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Athletic Club win as the most likely outcome at 41%, and while the visitors did edge the performance metrics, they ultimately could not convert their superiority into goals.

Disciplinary issues added an edge to proceedings, with six yellow cards distributed across both sides. Beñat Gerenabarrena was substituted at half-time after picking up his booking, while Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta was also withdrawn shortly after being carded in the second half. Both managers made heavy use of their substitutes, but neither side could find the decisive moment.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Dani Raba Yellow Card
19' ▮
▮ 38'
Aymeric Laporte Yellow Card
▮ 42'
Beñat Gerenabarrena Yellow Card
⇄ 45'
Beñat Gerenabarrena ⇄ Mikel Jauregizar
HT 0–0
Dani Raba ⇄ Luis Rioja
54' ⇄
Hugo Duro ⇄ David Otorbi
54' ⇄
▮ 57'
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta Yellow Card
⇄ 63'
Johaneko Louis Jean ⇄ Jesús Areso
⇄ 63'
Iñaki Williams ⇄ Gorka Guruzeta
⇄ 63'
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta ⇄ Alejandro Rego
⇄ 68'
Gorka Guruzeta ⇄ Maroan Sannadi
Justin De Haas ⇄ H. Elliott
74' ⇄
José Luis Gayà ⇄ Jesús Vázquez
85' ⇄
Guido Rodríguez ⇄ Filip Ugrinić
86' ⇄
Pepelu Yellow Card
87' ▮
César Tárrega Yellow Card
90' ▮
FT 0–0
Valencia

Match Stats

Athletic Club
37% Ball Possession 63%
1.57 Expected Goals (xG) 0.65
16 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Goal 2
12 Shots off Goal 7
1 Blocked Shots 0
13 Shots insidebox 7
3 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Corner Kicks 6
2 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
331 Total passes 567
265 Passes accurate 482
12 Free Kicks 14
Valencia
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
18 Pepelu M 7.2 90' – – – 44 (42%) 3
1 Stole Dimitrievski G 7.1 90' – – – 26 (21%) –
14 José Luis Gayà D 7.1 85' – – 2 28 (27%) 1
11 Luis Rioja F 7.0 36' – – 1 12 (12%) –
24 Pablo Maffeo D 6.9 90' – – 1 36 (25%) 4
7 Arnaut Danjuma M 6.8 90' – – 1 19 (14%) 2
9 Hugo Duro F 6.6 54' – – 3 6 (4%) 1
10 H. Elliott M 6.6 16' – – 1 7 (6%) –
8 Javier Guerra M 6.5 90' – – 3 20 (14%) 2
19 Dani Raba M 6.5 54' – – 2 15 (11%) –
2 Guido Rodríguez M 6.4 86' – – – 43 (34%) 3
5 César Tárrega D 6.3 90' – – – 33 (24%) 1
12 Justin De Haas D 6.3 74' – – – 35 (25%) –
23 Filip Ugrinić M 6.2 4' – – – 1 (1%) –
21 Jesús Vázquez D 6.1 5' – – – – –
27 David Otorbi F 6.0 36' – – 2 6 (5%) –
Athletic Club
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
14 Aymeric Laporte D 7.1 90' – – 1 95 (86%) 1
4 Aitor Paredes D 7.1 90' – – – 78 (72%) 1
15 Hugo Rincón D 7.0 90' – – – 63 (60%) –
31 Johaneko Louis Jean D 6.9 63' – – 3 42 (36%) 1
12 Jesús Areso D 6.8 27' – – – 22 (20%) –
20 Alejandro Rego M 6.7 27' – – – 19 (16%) –
1 Unai Simón G 6.6 90' – – – 24 (13%) –
21 Maroan Sannadi F 6.6 22' – – – 3 (3%) –
11 Gorka Guruzeta F 6.5 5' – – – – –
23 Robert Navarro M 6.5 90' – – 1 33 (26%) 1
24 Beñat Gerenabarrena M 6.4 46' – – – 27 (20%) 3
28 Peio Canales M 6.4 90' – – 1 34 (28%) 1
16 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta M 6.3 63' – – – 48 (39%) –
9 Iñaki Williams F 6.2 63' – – 3 10 (6%) –
18 Mikel Jauregizar M 6.1 44' – – – 26 (22%) 1
7 Álex Berenguer M 6.1 90' – – – 43 (35%) 4
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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung
Athletic Club oder Unentschieden
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Valencia
LWLDD
Athletic Club
DWWWL
Last 3 meetings Valencia · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash, Valencia hosts Athletic Club. Valencia has shown solid form at home with a recent average of 1.8 goals per game, while their defense has conceded only 1 goal per match in their last five fixtures. Athletic Club, known for their robust defensive setup, has been effective on the road, managing 1.5 goals per away game. However, they have struggled against teams with a high pressing game, which Valencia implements effectively. The match will likely hinge on Valencia's ability to break down Athletic's defense early.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
29%
10%
Draw
30%
45%
Away
41%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Valencia

No scorer data.

Athletic Club
Álex Berenguer 4 gls

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Head to Head: Valencia vs Athletic Club

2 Valencia Wins
0 Draws
1 Athletic Club Wins
Date Home Score Away
10 May 2026 Athletic Club 0 - 1 Valencia
20 Sep 2025 Valencia 2 - 0 Athletic Club
18 May 2025 Valencia 0 - 1 Athletic Club
Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Valencia — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
07 Nov H Real Madrid L 0 - 3
01 Nov A Elche W 0 - 1
24 Oct H Villarreal L 1 - 2
17 Oct H Athletic Club D 0 - 0
11 Oct A Racing Santander D 2 - 2

Athletic Club — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
07 Nov A Osasuna D 1 - 1
01 Nov H Real Sociedad W 2 - 1
29 Oct A Prat W 1 - 6
25 Oct H Getafe W 4 - 0
21 Oct A Levante L 3 - 1

La Liga Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Barcelona
11 10 0 1 +34 30
2
Real Madrid
12 10 0 2 +21 30
3
Atletico Madrid
11 9 1 1 +14 28
4
Real Betis
11 7 2 2 +3 23
5
Real Sociedad
11 6 1 4 0 19
6
Sevilla
12 5 3 4 -2 18
7
Athletic Club
11 4 4 3 +4 16
8
Deportivo La Coruna
12 3 6 3 +1 15
9
Racing Santander
12 4 2 6 -13 14
10
Alaves
12 3 4 5 -2 13
11
Villarreal
11 3 3 5 0 12
12
Celta Vigo
11 2 6 3 0 12
13
Espanyol
12 3 3 6 -1 12
14
Rayo Vallecano
10 3 3 4 -5 12
15
Getafe
11 3 3 5 -8 12
16
Osasuna
12 3 3 6 -11 12
17
Elche
11 2 4 5 -4 10
18
Levante
11 2 4 5 -5 10
19
Valencia
12 2 3 7 -12 9
20
Malaga
12 0 5 7 -14 5

Athletic Club

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: E. Terzić
1 Simón
31 Louis-Jean
14 Laporte
4 Paredes
15 Rincón
16 Galarreta
24 Gerenabarrena
23 Navarro
28 Canales
7 Berenguer
9 Williams

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 Unai Simón G
15 Hugo Rincón D
4 Aitor Paredes D
14 Aymeric Laporte D
31 J. Louis-Jean D
24 Beñat Gerenabarrena M
16 Ruíz de Galarreta M
7 Álex Berenguer M
28 Peio Canales M
23 Robert Navarro M
9 I. Williams F

Substitutes

11 Gorka Guruzeta F
17 Yuri D
12 Jesús Areso D
33 Christian Imga F
18 Mikel Jauregizar M
13 Álex Padilla G
6 Beñat Prados M
20 Alejandro Rego M
21 Maroan Sannadi F
22 Nico Serrano F
3 Dani Vivian D
5 Yeray D

Valencia

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: J. Aguirre
1 Dimitrievski
14 Gayà
12 Haas
5 Tárrega
24 Maffeo
2 Rodríguez
18 Pepelu
7 Danjuma
8 Guerra
19 Raba
9 Duro

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 S. Dimitrievski G
24 Pablo Maffeo D
5 César Tárrega D
12 J. de Haas D
14 José Gayà D
18 Pepelu M
2 G. Rodríguez M
19 Dani Raba M
8 Javi Guerra M
7 A. Danjuma M
9 Hugo Duro F

Substitutes

10 H. Elliott M
22 Arnau Martínez D
33 Aaron Mayol M
27 David Otorbi F
11 Luis Rioja F
39 R. Sato M
23 F. Ugrinic M
21 Jesús Vázquez D
25 K. van Oevelen G
15 A. Dieng M
4 M. Diakhaby D
37 Aimar Blázquez F

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