Alaves vs Villarreal Prognose

La Liga · Regular Season - 3

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Villarreal

Away

Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

KI-Tipp Villarreal oder Unentschieden

33%

28%

39%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Alaves vs. Villarreal Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Alaves eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 33%, für Villarreal 39% und für ein Unentschieden 28%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 28 Aug 2026, 21:23.

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Heimteam trifft 75%
Auswärtsteam trifft 74%
1st Half Home or Draw 75%
Unter 3,5 Tore 71%

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Match Report

Alaves claimed all three points at home against Villarreal in La Liga's third round of fixtures, winning 1–0 thanks to a first-half goal that proved decisive. Lucas Boyé broke the deadlock in the 31st minute with a composed finish, giving the hosts an advantage they would not relinquish. Our pre-match AI model had favoured a Villarreal victory at 39%, a call that ultimately did not materialise.

Despite controlling just 25% of possession, Alaves defended resolutely and showed enough quality in attack to threaten on the counter, registering 18 total shots and six on target to Villarreal's nine and two respectively. The visitors struggled to convert their territorial pressure into clear-cut chances, finishing with an expected goals figure of 0.81 against Alaves's 1.28.

The second half saw both sides make multiple substitutions in search of a shift in momentum, with Villarreal introducing Gerard Moreno and Georges Mikautadze among others. However, the changes failed to unlock a disciplined Alaves backline, and a flurry of late yellow cards — five in total across both teams — underlined the mounting frustration as the hosts held firm for a deserved victory.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Lucas Boyé assist: Ángel Pérez

31' ⚽ 1–0

Yellow Card

45+2' ▮

HT 1–0

Abderrahman Rebbach Yellow Card

48' ▮

Toni Martínez ⇄ Mariano Diaz

54' ⇄

Mikel Rodriguez ⇄ Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim

54' ⇄

⇄ 62'

Santi Comesaña ⇄ Ayoze Pérez

⇄ 62'

Santiago Mouriño ⇄ Alexander Freeman

⇄ 63'

Tajon Buchanan ⇄ Alberto Moleiro

⇄ 70'

Gerard Moreno ⇄ Ilias Akhomach

Abderrahman Rebbach ⇄ Denis Suarez

71' ⇄

Ángel Pérez ⇄ Carlos Benavídez

71' ⇄

Lucas Boyé

82' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Georges Mikautadze ⇄ Tani Oluwaseyi

▮ 86'

Nicolas Pépé Yellow Card

Mariano Diaz Yellow Card

89' ▮

Antonio Sivera Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

▮ 90+2'

Renato Veiga Yellow Card

FT 1–0

Alaves

Match Stats

Villarreal

25% Ball Possession 75%

0.81 Expected Goals (xG) 1.28

9 Total Shots 18

2 Shots on Goal 6

7 Shots off Goal 6

0 Blocked Shots 6

4 Shots insidebox 14

5 Shots outsidebox 4

5 Corner Kicks 9

5 Offsides 4

14 Fouls 8

3 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

6 Goalkeeper Saves 1

195 Total passes 625

145 Passes accurate 556

74% Passes % 89%

-0.07 goals_prevented -0.07

Alaves

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Antonio Sivera G	7.7	94'	–	–	–	24 (14%)	–
7 Ángel Pérez D	7.5	71'	–	1	2	7 (5%)	1
17 Jonny Otto D	7.5	94'	–	–	1	22 (20%)	3
3 Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim D	7.3	40'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	3
8 Antonio Blanco M	7.3	94'	–	–	1	28 (22%)	5
15 Lucas Boyé F	7.3	82'	1	–	3	12 (10%)	3
16 Ville Koski D	7.2	94'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	1
14 Nahuel Tenaglia D	7.0	94'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	2
4 Denis Suarez M	6.9	23'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
20 Aitor Mañas F	6.7	12'	–	–	–	–	–
9 Mariano Diaz F	6.7	40'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
18 Mikel Rodriguez M	6.6	54'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	1
11 Toni Martínez F	6.3	54'	–	–	–	4 (1%)	–
19 Pablo Ibáñez M	6.3	94'	–	–	2	21 (17%)	1
21 Abderrahman Rebbach D	6.3	71'	–	–	–	22 (16%)	2
23 Carlos Benavídez M	6.3	23'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–

Villarreal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Juan Foyth D	7.7	94'	–	–	3	87 (83%)	5
12 Renato Veiga D	7.0	94'	–	–	1	90 (84%)	1
3 Alexander Freeman D	6.9	32'	–	–	–	32 (29%)	2
1 Luiz Júnior G	6.9	94'	–	–	–	17 (16%)	–
15 Santiago Mouriño D	6.9	62'	–	–	–	44 (38%)	3
22 Ayoze Pérez F	6.9	32'	–	–	2	11 (10%)	–
19 Nicolas Pépé M	6.7	94'	–	–	2	45 (39%)	1
18 Pape Gueye M	6.7	94'	–	–	–	81 (66%)	1
20 Carlos Romero D	6.6	94'	–	–	–	56 (51%)	1
17 Tajon Buchanan M	6.3	63'	–	–	1	23 (21%)	1
21 Tani Oluwaseyi F	6.3	12'	–	–	–	1	–
14 Santi Comesaña M	6.3	62'	–	–	–	51 (43%)	2
10 Alberto Moleiro M	6.3	31'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	1
7 Gerard Moreno F	6.3	70'	–	–	3	33 (28%)	1
9 Georges Mikautadze F	6.2	82'	–	–	–	22 (18%)	–
11 Ilias Akhomach F	6.2	24'	–	–	–	19 (18%)	–

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Confidence Low (39%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Villarreal oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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Alaves

DLLWW

Villarreal

WWLLL

Last 3 meetings Alaves · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash, Alaves will face Villarreal. Alaves has struggled offensively, averaging only 1.1 goals per match this season, while Villarreal boasts a more potent attack, scoring 1.6 goals per match. Defensively, both teams have shown vulnerabilities, with Alaves conceding 1.5 goals per game compared to Villarreal's 1.3. The match could hinge on Villarreal's ability to exploit Alaves' defensive weaknesses, particularly on the counterattack. Expect a tactical battle, with Villarreal looking to assert control in the midfield.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

33%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

39%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Villarreal goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	7	6	3	1
1	8	14	8	4	1
2	6	8	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Alaves goals · most likely 1–1 (13.8%)

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Players in form

Alaves

L. Boyé 4 gls

M. Díaz 3 gls

Villarreal

P. Gueye 3 gls

Alberto Moleiro 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

39%

Home Win

33%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

39%

Home Win

33%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

52% Home (No Draw) 48% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Home Win by 2+ 16% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Home Scores More 34% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	7.2%	5.9%	2.6%	0.9%
1	7.5%	13.8%	8.2%	3.7%	1.2%
2	6.3%	8.5%	5.7%	2.5%	0.9%
3	2.9%	3.9%	2.6%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.0%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

47%

1.5

53%

75%

2.5

25%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

20%

27%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Alaves	Draw	Villarreal
Alaves	19.4%	4.3%	2.3%
Draw	15.8%	18.2%	14.8%
Villarreal	2.5%	4.5%	18.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Alaves vs Villarreal

1 Alaves Wins

1 Draws

1 Villarreal Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
13 Mar 2026	Alaves	1 - 1	Villarreal
10 Jan 2026	Villarreal	3 - 1	Alaves
08 Mar 2025	Alaves	1 - 0	Villarreal

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Alaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	0 - 0
15 Sep	H Valencia	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Racing Santander	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Osasuna	W	5 - 2
28 Aug	H Villarreal	W	1 - 0

Villarreal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Levante	W	3 - 1
17 Sep	A Malaga	W	1 - 3
14 Sep	H Real Betis	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Borussia Dortmund	L	3 - 2
05 Sep	H Deportivo La Coruna	L	2 - 3

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Villarreal

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Inigo Perez

1 Júnior

20 Romero

12 Veiga

8 Foyth

15 Mouriño

17 Buchanan

18 Gueye

14 Comesaña

19 Pépé

9 Mikautadze

7 Moreno

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Luiz Júnior	G
15	Santiago Mouriño	D
8	Juan Foyth	D
12	Renato Veiga	D
20	Carlos Romero	D
19	Nicolas Pépé	M
14	Santi Comesaña	M
18	Pape Gueye	M
17	Tajon Buchanan	M
7	Gerard Moreno	F
9	Georges Mikautadze	F

Substitutes

25	Péter Gulácsi	G
6	Pau Navarro	D
3	Alexander Freeman	D
23	Sergi Cardona	D
2	Logan Costa	D
10	Alberto Moleiro	M
26	Carlos Maciá	M
5	Alassane Diatta	M
11	Ilias Akhomach	F
24	Nathan-Dylan Saliba	M
22	Ayoze Pérez	F
21	Tani Oluwaseyi	F

Alaves

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: Quique Sanchez Flores

1 Sivera

21 Rebbach

17 Otto

16 Koski

14 Tenaglia

7 Pérez

18 Rodriguez

8 Blanco

19 Ibáñez

15 Boyé

11 Martínez

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Antonio Sivera	G
7	Ángel Pérez	D
14	Nahuel Tenaglia	D
16	Ville Koski	D
17	Jonny Otto	D
21	Abderrahman Rebbach	D
19	Pablo Ibáñez	M
8	Antonio Blanco	M
18	Mikel Rodriguez	M
11	Toni Martínez	F
15	Lucas Boyé	F

Substitutes

13	Adrián Rodríguez	G
3	Youssef Enriquez	D
27	Xanet Olaiz	D
2	Nicolás Valentini	D
12	Hugo Novoa	F
23	Carlos Benavídez	M
4	Denis Suárez	M
10	Carles Aleñá	M
22	Miguel Rodríguez	F
6	Ander Guevara	M
20	Aitor Mañas	F
9	Mariano Díaz	F