Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prognose

Premier League · Regular Season - 8

24 Oct 2026, 14:00

Post on X

Manchester City

Away

Villa Park, Birmingham

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64%

23%

13%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Aston Villa eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 64%, für Manchester City 13% und für ein Unentschieden 23%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

2:0 · 12.5%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Aston Villa

WWLWD

Manchester City

WWWWW

Last 3 meetings Aston Villa · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Aston Villa faces a challenging matchup against Manchester City, who are currently one of the strongest teams in the Premier League. Manchester City boasts an impressive attacking record, led by key players who consistently contribute goals and assists. Aston Villa will need to focus on solid defensive organization and capitalize on any counter-attacking opportunities to disrupt City's fluid play. Recent form indicates Villa has been competitive, but they will need to elevate their performance to secure points against the reigning champions. The outcome will likely hinge on Villa's defensive resilience and City's ability to break through.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

64%

45%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

13%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Manchester City goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	4	2
1	11	11	4	1
2	13	10	4	1
3	8	7	3	1
4	4	3	1
5	2	1	1

↑ Aston Villa goals · most likely 2–0 (12.5%)

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Players in form

Aston Villa

No scorer data.

Manchester City

E. Haaland 5 gls

R. Cherki 3 gls

A. Semenyo 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

23%

Away Win

13%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

23%

Away Win

13%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

84% Home (No Draw) 16% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

40% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

64% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 13% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

15%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	3.5%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
1	11.1%	11.0%	3.8%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.5%	9.9%	3.9%	1.0%	0.2%
3	8.5%	6.7%	2.6%	0.7%	0.1%
4	4.3%	3.4%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

31%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Aston Villa	Draw	Manchester City
Aston Villa	46.3%	4.1%	1.2%
Draw	18.0%	14.3%	5.9%
Manchester City	1.8%	2.6%	5.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

41%

1.5

59%

68%

2.5

32%

87%

3.5

13%

Home Exact Goals

13%

27%

28%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

45%

36%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Aston Villa vs Manchester City

2 Aston Villa Wins

0 Draws

1 Manchester City Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
24 May 2026	Manchester City	1 - 2	Aston Villa
26 Oct 2025	Aston Villa	1 - 0	Manchester City
22 Apr 2025	Manchester City	2 - 1	Aston Villa

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Aston Villa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Tottenham	W	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Coventry	W	1 - 3
12 Sep	H Nottingham Forest	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Club Brugge KV	W	2 - 3
05 Sep	A Hull City	D	0 - 0

Manchester City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Sunderland	W	5 - 3
17 Sep	H Norwich	W	5 - 0
13 Sep	A Manchester United	W	0 - 1
08 Sep	A FC Porto	W	0 - 2
05 Sep	H Coventry	W	1 - 0

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.