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USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Prognose

World Cup World Cup · Round of 32
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USA

USA

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2 : 0
HT 1 - 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina

Bosnia & Herzegovina

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KI-Tipp USA gewinnt oder unentschieden
67%
23%
10%
Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

USA vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für USA eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 67%, für Bosnia & Herzegovina 10% und für ein Unentschieden 23%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Match Report

USA advanced to the next round of the World Cup with a composed 2–0 victory over Bosnia & Herzegovina, with the decisive moments coming either side of a dramatic red card. Folarin Balogun broke the deadlock on the stroke of half-time, finishing coolly to give the Americans a deserved lead. Our pre-match AI model had rated a USA win as the most likely outcome at 67%, and the match largely followed that script.

The second half brought chaos when Balogun was shown a red card on 64 minutes, leaving USA to defend their lead with ten men for the remainder of the contest. Bosnia introduced fresh legs through multiple substitutions in an attempt to exploit the numerical advantage, yet the statistics tell a telling story — their expected goals figure of just 0.21 reflected how little they truly threatened. USA's defensive shape held firm throughout.

Rather than buckle, the ten-man Americans sealed the tie through Malik Tillman on 82 minutes, converting to put the result beyond doubt. Bosnia finished with 52% possession but could not translate that into meaningful chances, as USA's clinical efficiency carried them through.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Folarin Balogun
45' ⚽ 1–0
HT 1–0
⇄ 51'
Armin Gigović ⇄ Esmir Bajraktarević
⇄ 51'
Ivan Šunjić ⇄ Benjamin Tahirović
⇄ 51'
Edin Džeko ⇄ Ermin Mahmic
Folarin Balogun Red Card
64' ▮
⇄ 75'
Sead Kolašinac ⇄ Haris Tabaković
⇄ 75'
Nikola Katić ⇄ Amar Memić
▮ 80'
Yellow Card
▮ 80'
Stjepan Radeljić Yellow Card
Malik Tillman
82' ⚽ 2–0
Sergiño Dest ⇄ Sebastian Berhalter
87' ⇄
Christian Pulišić ⇄ Ricardo Pepi
88' ⇄
Weston McKennie ⇄ Giovanni Reyna
90+5' ⇄
FT 2–0
USA

Match Stats

Bosnia & Herzegovina
48% Ball Possession 52%
0.92 Expected Goals (xG) 0.21
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 3
2 Blocked Shots 3
6 Shots insidebox 5
2 Shots outsidebox 4
4 Corner Kicks 3
2 Offsides 0
7 Fouls 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0
3 Goalkeeper Saves 0
408 Total passes 441
344 Passes accurate 362
84% Passes % 82%
-1.73 goals_prevented -1.73
USA
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
17 Malik Tillman M 7.9 98' 1 – 1 31 (22%) 3
3 Chris Richards D 7.3 98' – – – 45 (41%) –
16 Alexander Freeman D 7.2 98' – – 1 60 (58%) 1
13 Tim Ream D 7.2 98' – – – 56 (49%) –
5 Antonee Robinson D 7.2 98' – – – 41 (34%) 1
2 Sergiño Dest F 7.2 87' – – – 27 (24%) 1
8 Weston McKennie M 7.2 95' – – – 42 (31%) 3
4 Tyler Adams M 6.9 98' – – – 46 (41%) 1
10 Christian Pulišić F 6.9 88' – – – 26 (22%) 1
14 Sebastian Berhalter M 6.9 11' – – – 5 (5%) –
24 Matthew Freese G 6.6 98' – – – 11 (5%) –
20 Folarin Balogun F 6.5 64' 1 – 4 9 (5%) –
9 Ricardo Pepi F 6.3 10' – – – 6 (5%) –
7 Giovanni Reyna M — 3' – – – 3 (2%) –
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
4 Tarik Muharemović D 6.9 98' – – – 81 (73%) 1
6 Benjamin Tahirović M 6.7 47' – – – 41 (35%) 1
8 Armin Gigović M 6.7 51' – – – 10 (5%) –
7 Amar Dedić D 6.6 98' – – – 29 (26%) 5
21 Stjepan Radeljić D 6.5 98' – – – 63 (55%) 3
18 Nikola Katić D 6.3 75' – – 1 44 (38%) 2
20 Esmir Bajraktarević F 6.3 47' – – 1 21 (21%) –
26 Ermin Mahmic M 6.3 47' – – 1 12 (8%) 1
11 Edin Džeko F 6.3 51' – – – 15 (11%) –
23 Haris Tabaković F 6.3 23' – – – 1 (1%) –
5 Sead Kolašinac D 6.2 75' – – – 27 (20%) 2
15 Amar Memić M 6.2 23' – – – 11 (9%) –
10 Ermedin Demirović F 6.2 98' – – 2 6 (5%) 1
14 Ivan Šunjić M 6.2 51' – – – 17 (13%) 2
19 Kerim Alajbegović M 6.0 98' – – 1 31 (22%) –
1 Nikola Vasilj G 4.9 98' – – – 32 (20%) –
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Confidence Medium (67%)

At a glance

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USA
LWLWW
Bosnia & Herzegovina
LWLD

Match summary

In this World Cup clash, the USA faces Bosnia & Herzegovina in a neutral venue setting. The USA boasts a strong attack, averaging 2.1 goals per game in qualifying, while their defense has been solid, conceding just 0.9 goals per game. Conversely, Bosnia & Herzegovina has shown resilience, with a midfield capable of controlling possession and creating opportunities, averaging 1.5 goals per game. Both teams will need to capitalize on set pieces and counter-attacks, making tactical discipline crucial for success in this knockout stage.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

USA — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
07 Jul H Belgium L 1 - 4
02 Jul H Bosnia & Herzegovina W 2 - 0
26 Jun A Türkiye L 3 - 2
19 Jun H Australia W 2 - 0
13 Jun H Paraguay W 4 - 1

Bosnia & Herzegovina — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
02 Jul A USA L 2 - 0
24 Jun H Qatar W 3 - 1
18 Jun A Switzerland L 4 - 1
12 Jun A Canada D 1 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Mexico
3 3 0 0 +6 9
2
South Africa
3 1 1 1 -1 4
4
Czechia
3 0 1 2 -4 1

Group B

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Switzerland
3 2 1 0 +4 7
2
Canada
3 1 1 1 +5 4
4
Qatar
3 0 1 2 -8 1

Group C

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Brazil
3 2 1 0 +6 7
2
Morocco
3 2 1 0 +3 7
4
Haiti
3 0 0 3 -6 0

Group D

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
USA
3 2 0 1 +4 6
2
Australia
3 1 1 1 0 4
4
Türkiye
3 1 0 2 -2 3

Group E

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Germany
3 2 0 1 +6 6
2
Ivory Coast
3 2 0 1 +2 6
4
Curaçao
3 0 1 2 -8 1

Group F

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Netherlands
3 2 1 0 +6 7
2
Japan
3 1 2 0 +4 5
4
Tunisia
3 0 0 3 -10 0

Group G

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Belgium
3 1 2 0 +4 5
2
Egypt
3 1 2 0 +2 5
4
New Zealand
3 0 1 2 -6 1

Group H

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Spain
3 2 1 0 +5 7
2
Cape Verde Islands
3 0 3 0 0 3
4
Saudi Arabia
3 0 2 1 -4 2

Group I

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
France
3 3 0 0 +8 9
2
Norway
3 2 0 1 +1 6
4
Iraq
3 0 0 3 -11 0

Group J

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Argentina
3 3 0 0 +7 9
2
Austria
3 1 1 1 0 4
4
Jordan
3 0 0 3 -5 0

Group K

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Colombia
3 2 1 0 +3 7
2
Portugal
3 1 2 0 +5 5
4
Uzbekistan
3 0 0 3 -9 0

Group L

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
England
3 2 1 0 +4 7
2
Croatia
3 2 0 1 0 6
4
Panama
3 0 0 3 -4 0

Group Stage

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Congo DR
3 1 1 1 +1 4
2
Sweden
3 1 1 1 0 4
3
Ghana
3 1 1 1 0 4
4
Ecuador
3 1 1 1 0 4
5
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3 1 1 1 -1 4
6
Algeria
3 1 1 1 -2 4
7
Paraguay
3 1 1 1 -2 4
8
Senegal
3 1 0 2 +2 3
9
Iran
3 0 3 0 0 3
10
South Korea
3 1 0 2 -1 3
11
Scotland
3 1 0 2 -3 3
12
Uruguay
3 0 2 1 -1 2

USA

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Mauricio Pochettino
24 Freese
5 Robinson
13 Ream
3 Richards
16 Freeman
17 Tillman
4 Adams
8 McKennie
10 Pulišić
20 Balogun
2 Dest

Starting XI

# Player Pos
24 Matthew Freese G
16 Alexander Freeman D
3 Chris Richards D
13 Tim Ream D
5 Antonee Robinson D
8 Weston McKennie M
4 Tyler Adams M
17 Malik Tillman M
2 Sergiño Dest F
20 Folarin Balogun F
10 Christian Pulišić F

Substitutes

1 Matt Turner G
25 Chris Brady G
12 Miles Robinson D
6 Auston Trusty D
23 Joe Scally D
26 Alex Zendejas F
11 Brenden Aaronson M
7 Giovanni Reyna M
18 Maximilian Arfsten M
14 Sebastian Berhalter M
21 Tim Weah F
19 Haji Wright F
9 Ricardo Pepi F

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: S. Barbarez
1 Vasilj
5 Kolašinac
21 Radeljić
4 Muharemović
18 Katić
7 Dedić
19 Alajbegović
14 Šunjić
8 Gigović
10 Demirović
11 Džeko

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 Nikola Vasilj G
7 Amar Dedić D
18 Nikola Katić D
4 Tarik Muharemović D
21 Stjepan Radeljić D
5 Sead Kolašinac D
8 Armin Gigović M
14 Ivan Šunjić M
19 Kerim Alajbegović M
11 Edin Džeko F
10 Ermedin Demirović F

Substitutes

6 Benjamin Tahirović M
26 Ermin Mahmić M
20 Esmir Bajraktarević F
22 Martin Zlomislić G
12 Mladen Jurkas G
24 Arjan Malić D
2 Nihad Mujakić D
3 Dennis Hadžikadunić D
16 Amir Hadžiahmetović M
15 Amar Memić M
17 Dženis Burnić M
13 Ivan Bašić M
25 Jovo Lukić F
23 Haris Tabaković F
9 Samed Baždar F

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