Ecuador vs Germany Prognose

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

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Germany

Away

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Germany

13%

25%

63%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Ecuador vs. Germany Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Ecuador eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 13%, für Germany 63% und für ein Unentschieden 25%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Unter 3,5 Tore 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 75%

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Match Report

Germany made the perfect start when Leroy Sané struck inside two minutes, but Ecuador levelled almost immediately through Nilson Angulo in the ninth minute, setting the tone for a fiercely contested encounter. The first half closed with both sides reduced to ten-man caution, yellow cards shown to Hincapié and Pavlović in quick succession — the latter forcing a German substitution before the break.

The second half brought further drama as a VAR review cancelled a Kai Havertz penalty on the hour mark, a pivotal moment that denied Germany a potential lead. Both managers turned to their benches heavily around the 60th and 64th minute, reshaping the contest. Ecuador capitalised on the momentum shift when Gonzalo Plata netted the winner in the 77th minute, securing a famous victory despite Germany's dominant 61 percent possession and equal shots on target.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Germany win as most likely at 63%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark. Ecuador held firm to claim three points in a result that will reverberate through the group.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 2'

Leroy Sané assist: Florian Wirtz

Nilson Angulo assist: Pedro Vite

9' ⚽ 1–1

Piero Hincapié Yellow Card

43' ▮

▮ 44'

Aleksandar Pavlović Yellow Card

⇄ 45'

Aleksandar Pavlović ⇄ Angelo Stiller

HT 1–1

🖵 47'

Kai Havertz Penalty cancelled

Alan Franco Yellow Card

50' ▮

⇄ 60'

Kai Havertz ⇄ Deniz Undav

⇄ 60'

Joshua Kimmich ⇄ Malick Thiaw

Enner Valencia ⇄ Kevin Rodriguez

64' ⇄

Alan Franco ⇄ Ángelo Preciado

64' ⇄

⇄ 64'

Felix Nmecha ⇄ Maximilian Beier

Piero Hincapié ⇄ Pervis Estupiñán

71' ⇄

⇄ 73'

Florian Wirtz ⇄ Pascal Groß

Gonzalo Plata assist: Kevin Rodriguez

77' ⚽ 2–1

John Yeboah ⇄ Félix Torres

85' ⇄

Nilson Angulo ⇄ Jordy Caicedo

85' ⇄

Gonzalo Plata Yellow Card

89' ▮

FT 2–1

Ecuador

Match Stats

Germany

39% Ball Possession 61%

7 Total Shots 11

3 Shots on Goal 3

2 Shots off Goal 3

2 Blocked Shots 5

3 Corner Kicks 2

15 Fouls 10

3 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 1

10 Free Kicks 14

Ecuador

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Nilson Angulo F	8.2	85'	1	–	1	23 (18%)	–
19 Gonzalo Plata F	7.4	90'	1	–	2	29 (21%)	3
15 Pedro Vite M	7.3	90'	–	1	–	66 (53%)	9
23 Moisés Caicedo M	7.0	90'	–	–	1	63 (56%)	4
11 Kevin Rodriguez F	6.9	26'	–	1	1	9 (8%)	–
1 Hernán Galíndez G	6.8	90'	–	–	–	23 (16%)	–
16 Jordy Caicedo F	6.7	5'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
4 Joel Ordóñez D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	39 (33%)	3
6 Willian Pacho D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	47 (41%)	1
9 John Yeboah M	6.5	85'	–	–	–	22 (18%)	–
13 Enner Valencia F	6.4	64'	–	–	2	13 (11%)	–
7 Pervis Estupiñán D	6.4	19'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	1
2 Félix Torres D	6.3	5'	–	–	–	–	–
17 Ángelo Preciado D	6.3	26'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
21 Alan Franco M	6.2	64'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	4
3 Piero Hincapié D	6.0	71'	–	–	–	20 (17%)	1

Germany

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Leroy Sané F	7.6	90'	1	–	2	49 (41%)	2
17 Florian Wirtz M	7.1	73'	–	1	3	33 (27%)	1
26 Deniz Undav F	6.9	30'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	–
6 Joshua Kimmich M	6.8	60'	–	–	–	60 (54%)	2
7 Kai Havertz F	6.7	60'	–	–	1	18 (12%)	3
22 David Raum D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	37 (33%)	1
2 Antonio Rüdiger D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	76 (70%)	1
4 Jonathan Tah D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	99 (94%)	2
16 Angelo Stiller M	6.3	44'	–	–	–	35 (31%)	1
24 Malick Thiaw D	6.2	30'	–	–	–	30 (25%)	2
14 Maximilian Beier F	6.2	26'	–	–	–	9 (4%)	–
1 Manuel Neuer G	6.1	90'	–	–	–	34 (29%)	–
23 Felix Nmecha M	6.1	64'	–	–	2	25 (21%)	1
10 Jamal Musiala M	6.1	90'	–	–	1	28 (23%)	2
5 Aleksandar Pavlović M	6.0	46'	–	–	–	39 (35%)	–
13 Pascal Groß M	5.9	17'	–	–	1	14 (13%)	2

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Confidence Medium (63%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Germany

Most likely score

0:2 · 13.1%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Ecuador

LWDLW

Germany

DLWWL

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup clash on June 25, 2026, Ecuador faces off against Germany in what promises to be a compelling contest. Ecuador will rely on their strong defensive structure and counter-attacking play, which has been effective in recent qualifiers. However, they will need to contend with Germany's high possession game and clinical finishing, as the Germans have historically dominated in midfield and created numerous scoring opportunities. Key players to watch include Ecuador's energetic winger and Germany's prolific striker, both of whom can alter the match's dynamics. The outcome may hinge on Ecuador's ability to absorb pressure and capitalize on counter-attacks against a seasoned German side.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

13%

10%

Draw

25%

45%

Away

63%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Germany goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	13	13	8	4	1
1	4	12	10	6	3	1
2	2	4	4	2	1
3		1	1	1
4
5

↑ Ecuador goals · most likely 0–2 (13.1%)

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Players in form

Ecuador

No scorer data.

Germany

D. Undav 3 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

63%

Draw

25%

Home Win

13%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

63%

Draw

25%

Home Win

13%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

83% Away (No Draw) 17% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

38% Away Win by 2+ 4% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

63% Away Scores More 25% Equal Goals 13% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	12.8%	13.1%	8.1%	3.8%
1	4.2%	11.7%	9.6%	6.0%	2.8%
2	2.0%	3.8%	3.5%	2.2%	1.0%
3	0.5%	0.9%	0.9%	0.5%	0.3%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

32%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Ecuador	Draw	Germany
Ecuador	7.1%	3.3%	2.3%
Draw	5.5%	16.0%	21.0%
Germany	0.8%	3.3%	40.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

48%

35%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

45%

1.5

55%

72%

2.5

28%

89%

3.5

11%

Away Exact Goals

16%

29%

27%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Ecuador vs Germany

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Ecuador — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Jul	A Mexico	L	2 - 0
25 Jun	H Germany	W	2 - 1
21 Jun	H Curaçao	D	0 - 0
14 Jun	A Ivory Coast	L	1 - 0
31 May	H Saudi Arabia	W	2 - 1

Germany — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
29 Jun	H Paraguay	D	1 - 1
25 Jun	A Ecuador	L	2 - 1
20 Jun	H Ivory Coast	W	2 - 1
14 Jun	H Curaçao	W	7 - 1
05 Jul	A Spain	L	2 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Germany

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Julian Nagelsmann

1 Neuer

22 Raum

2 Rüdiger

4 Tah

6 Kimmich

5 Pavlović

23 Nmecha

17 Wirtz

10 Musiala

19 Sané

7 Havertz

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	M. Neuer	G
6	J. Kimmich	M
4	J. Tah	D
2	A. Rüdiger	D
22	D. Raum	D
23	F. Nmecha	M
5	A. Pavlović	M
19	L. Sané	F
10	J. Musiala	M
17	F. Wirtz	M
7	K. Havertz	F

Substitutes

25	A. Ouédraogo	M
24	M. Thiaw	D
9	J. Leweling	F
11	N. Woltemade	F
14	M. Beier	F
16	A. Stiller	M
3	W. Anton	D
26	D. Undav	F
21	A. Nübel	G
20	N. Amiri	M
8	L. Goretzka	M
13	P. Groß	M
12	O. Baumann	G

Ecuador

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Sebastian Beccacece

1 Galíndez

3 Hincapié

6 Pacho

4 Ordoñez

21 Franco

20 Angulo

15 Vite

23 Caicedo

9 Yeboah

13 Valencia

19 Plata

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	H. Galíndez	G
21	A. Franco	M
4	J. Ordoñez	D
6	W. Pacho	D
3	P. Hincapié	D
9	J. Yeboah	M
23	M. Caicedo	M
15	P. Vite	M
20	N. Angulo	F
19	G. Plata	F
13	E. Valencia	F

Substitutes

2	F. Torres	D
7	P. Estupiñán	D
16	J. Caicedo	F
12	M. Ramírez	G
17	A. Preciado	D
5	J. Alcívar	M
22	G. Valle	G
25	J. Porozo	D
18	D. Castillo	M
26	Y. Medina	D
14	A. Minda	F
24	Jeremy Arévalo	F
8	A. Valencia	F
11	K. Rodríguez	F
10	K. Páez	M