South Africa vs South Korea Prognose

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

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South Korea

Away

Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für South Korea

14%

26%

60%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

South Africa vs. South Korea Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für South Africa eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 14%, für South Korea 60% und für ein Unentschieden 26%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Unter 3,5 Tore 77%
2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
Über 1,5 Tore 72%

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Match Report

South Africa secured a hard-fought 1–0 victory over South Korea in their World Cup group stage clash, with a goalless first half giving little indication of the drama to come. South Korea dominated possession at 68% and generated 13 total shots to South Africa's eight, yet struggled to convert their opportunities into goals.

The decisive moment arrived in the 63rd minute when Thapelo Maseko broke the deadlock with a composed finish, just minutes after South Africa introduced Oswin Appollis from the bench. The goal came against the run of play in terms of expected goals, with both sides finishing remarkably level at 1.07 and 1.10 xG respectively. South Korea pressed for an equaliser following Kim Min-jae's introduction in the 66th minute and substitute Hyeon-gyu Oh's arrival shortly after, but South Africa's defence held firm despite yellow cards for Aubrey Modiba and Gue-sung Cho adding tension late on.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a South Korea win as the most likely outcome at 60%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark. South Africa's clinical finishing made the difference on a night when the statistics suggested a closer contest.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

⇄ 46'

Hwang Hee-chan ⇄ Son Heung-min

⇄ 46'

Seung Ho Paik ⇄ Jin-gyu Kim

⇄ 46'

Lee Tae-seok ⇄ Jens Castrop

Oswin Appollis ⇄ Tshepang Moremi

62' ⇄

Thapelo Maseko assist: Tshepang Moremi

63' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 66'

Kim Min-jae ⇄ Jin-seob Park

Aubrey Modiba Yellow Card

73' ▮

⇄ 74'

Hyeon-gyu Oh ⇄ Gue-sung Cho

Thapelo Maseko ⇄ Iqraam Rayners

75' ⇄

▮ 79'

Gue-sung Cho Yellow Card

Relebohile Mofokeng ⇄ Jayden Adams

80' ⇄

FT 1–0

South Africa

Match Stats

South Korea

32% Ball Possession 68%

1.10 Expected Goals (xG) 1.07

13 Total Shots 8

4 Shots on Goal 3

5 Shots off Goal 4

4 Blocked Shots 1

5 Shots insidebox 5

8 Shots outsidebox 3

4 Corner Kicks 6

3 Offsides 0

7 Fouls 9

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

333 Total passes 711

273 Passes accurate 639

82% Passes % 90%

-0.61 goals_prevented -0.61

South Africa

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Ronwen Williams G	8.0	95'	–	–	–	37 (17%)	–
12 Thapelo Maseko M	7.7	75'	1	–	2	9 (7%)	1
8 Tshepang Moremi F	7.3	33'	–	1	–	6 (3%)	1
10 Relebohile Mofokeng M	7.3	80'	–	–	1	22 (19%)	2
14 Mbekezeli Mbokazi D	7.2	95'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	1
6 Aubrey Modiba D	7.2	95'	–	–	1	17 (12%)	1
20 Khuliso Mudau D	7.0	95'	–	–	–	39 (38%)	–
21 Ime Okon D	6.9	95'	–	–	–	52 (48%)	–
13 Siphephelo Sithole M	6.9	95'	–	–	–	52 (46%)	–
7 Oswin Appollis M	6.9	62'	–	–	1	23 (20%)	1
17 Evidence Makgopa F	6.9	95'	–	–	2	9 (7%)	3
15 Iqraam Rayners F	6.7	20'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
5 Thalente Mbatha M	6.6	95'	–	–	2	34 (29%)	1
23 Jayden Adams M	6.5	15'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

South Korea

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
3 Gi-Hyuk Lee D	7.5	95'	–	–	–	105 (90%)	1
22 Young-woo Seol M	7.3	95'	–	–	1	36 (33%)	1
6 Hwang In-beom M	7.2	95'	–	–	–	77 (70%)	2
16 Jin-seob Park M	7.2	29'	–	–	1	50 (45%)	–
13 Lee Tae-seok M	7.0	45'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	3
24 Jin-gyu Kim M	7.0	50'	–	–	–	52 (52%)	1
2 Han-Beom Lee D	6.9	95'	–	–	–	77 (74%)	1
4 Kim Min-jae D	6.9	66'	–	–	1	84 (83%)	–
19 Kang-in Lee F	6.9	95'	–	–	1	60 (50%)	–
8 Seung Ho Paik M	6.7	45'	–	–	–	41 (35%)	–
23 Jens Castrop M	6.5	50'	–	–	–	29 (23%)	1
11 Hwang Hee-chan F	6.5	45'	–	–	1	17 (12%)	1
18 Hyeon-gyu Oh F	6.5	74'	–	–	2	11 (10%)	–
1 Kim Seung-gyu G	6.3	95'	–	–	–	34 (30%)	–
7 Son Heung-min F	6.3	50'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	–
9 Gue-sung Cho F	6.0	21'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–

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Confidence Medium (60%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für South Korea

Most likely score

0:1 · 13.6%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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South Africa

LWDL

South Korea

LLWWW

Match summary

In this World Cup clash, South Africa faces South Korea in a crucial group stage match. South Africa has shown a solid defensive structure, conceding only 1.5 goals per match on average in their last five outings. Conversely, South Korea boasts a more potent attack, averaging 2 goals per match during their recent fixtures, led by star forward Son Heung-min. The match will hinge on South Africa's ability to contain South Korea's pace and creativity in the final third. Both teams will be looking to secure vital points to enhance their chances of progressing in the tournament.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

South Korea goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	14	13	8	3	1
1	5	12	9	5	2	1
2	2	4	3	2	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ South Africa goals · most likely 0–1 (13.6%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

60%

Draw

26%

Home Win

14%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

60%

Draw

26%

Home Win

14%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

81% Away (No Draw) 19% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Away Win by 2+ 4% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

60% Away Scores More 26% Equal Goals 14% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	13.6%	13.1%	7.6%	3.3%
1	4.8%	12.2%	9.4%	5.5%	2.4%
2	2.2%	3.9%	3.4%	2.0%	0.9%
3	0.5%	0.9%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	South Africa	Draw	South Korea
South Africa	7.5%	3.4%	2.2%
Draw	6.1%	17.3%	20.9%
South Korea	0.8%	3.4%	38.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

49%

35%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

75%

2.5

25%

91%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: South Africa vs South Korea

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

South Africa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
28 Jun	H Canada	L	0 - 1
25 Jun	H South Korea	W	1 - 0
18 Jun	A Czechia	D	1 - 1
11 Jun	A Mexico	L	2 - 0

South Korea — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jun	A South Africa	L	1 - 0
19 Jun	A Mexico	L	1 - 0
12 Jun	H Czechia	W	2 - 1
04 Jun	H El Salvador	W	1 - 0
31 May	H Trinidad and Tobago	W	5 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

South Korea

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Myung-Bo Hong

1 Seung-gyu

3 Lee

4 Min-jae

2 Lee

13 Tae-seok

6 In-beom

8 Paik

22 Seol

11 Hee-chan

19 Lee

18 Oh

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Kim Seung-gyu	G
2	Han-Beom Lee	D
4	Kim Min-jae	D
3	Gi-Hyuk Lee	D
22	Young-woo Seol	M
8	Seung Ho Paik	M
6	Hwang In-beom	M
13	Lee Tae-seok	M
19	Kang-in Lee	F
11	Hwang Hee-chan	F
18	Hyeon-gyu Oh	F

Substitutes

23	Jens Castrop	M
24	Jin-gyu Kim	M
7	Son Heung-min	F
16	Jin-seob Park	M
21	Jo Hyeonwoo	G
12	Song Bum-keun	G
15	Kim Moon-hwan	D
5	Kim Tae-hyeon	D
14	Wi-je Cho	D
26	Dong-gyeong Lee	M
10	Jae-sung Lee	M
25	Ji-sung Eom	F
17	Jun-Ho Bae	M
9	Gue-sung Cho	F
20	Yang Hyun-Jun	F

South Africa

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Hugo Broos

1 Williams

6 Modiba

14 Mbokazi

21 Okon

20 Mudau

13 Sithole

5 Mbatha

7 Appollis

10 Mofokeng

12 Maseko

17 Makgopa

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ronwen Williams	G
20	Khuliso Mudau	D
21	Ime Okon	D
14	Mbekezeli Mbokazi	D
6	Aubrey Modiba	D
5	Thalente Mbatha	M
13	Sphephelo Sithole	M
12	Thapelo Maseko	M
10	Relebohile Mofokeng	M
7	Oswin Appollis	M
17	Evidence Makgopa	F

Substitutes

8	Tshepang Moremi	F
22	Ricardo Goss	G
16	Sipho Chaine	G
26	Bradley Cross	D
3	Khulumani Ndamane	D
19	Nkosinathi Sibisi	D
24	Olwethu Makhanya	D
18	Samukelo Kabini	D
2	Tholo Thabang Matuludi	D
23	Jayden Adams	M
25	Kamogelo Sebelebele	M
15	Iqraam Rayners	F
9	Lyle Foster	F