Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar Prognose

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

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Qatar

Away

Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington

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26%

32%

42%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Qatar Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Bosnia & Herzegovina eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 26%, für Qatar 42% und für ein Unentschieden 32%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Match Report

Bosnia & Herzegovina secured a 3–1 victory over Qatar in their World Cup group stage encounter, despite the visitors dominating possession and creating more chances throughout the match. The opening exchanges were frantic, with Kerim Alajbegović breaking the deadlock in the 29th minute before an Mahmud Abunad own goal extended the Bosnian lead five minutes later. Qatar pulled one back through Hassan Al Haydos just before half-time to set up a tense second period.

The second half saw both sides make multiple substitutions, with Edin Džeko among those introduced by Bosnia. Qatar struggled to find an equaliser despite their superior ball possession of 56% and five shots on target compared to Bosnia's one, a statistical anomaly that ultimately proved decisive in reflecting the game's unpredictable nature. Ermin Mahmic wrapped up the points with a goal on 80 minutes, though he was immediately cautioned with a yellow card two minutes later.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Qatar win as the most likely outcome at 42%, a call that proved well wide of the mark as Bosnia held firm to claim all three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Kerim Alajbegović assist: Ivan Bašić

29' ⚽ 1–0

Mahmud Abunad Own Goal

34' ⚽ 2–0

⚽ 2–1 42'

Hassan Al Haydos assist: Edmilson Junior

HT 2–1

Ivan Šunjić ⇄ Benjamin Tahirović

46' ⇄

Arjan Malić ⇄ Amar Memić

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam ⇄ Abdelaziz Hatem

⇄ 56'

Hassan Al Haydos ⇄ Ahmed Al-Ganehi

Nikola Katić ⇄ Dennis Hadžikadunić

63' ⇄

Edin Džeko ⇄ Ermin Mahmic

64' ⇄

⇄ 72'

Karim Boudiaf ⇄ Almoez Ali

▮ 78'

Ahmed Fathi Yellow Card

⇄ 79'

Edmilson Junior ⇄ Ahmed Alaaeldin

⇄ 79'

Ahmed Fathi ⇄ Mohamed Naceur Almanai

Ermin Mahmic assist: Dennis Hadžikadunić

80' ⚽ 3–1

Ermin Mahmic Yellow Card

82' ▮

Kerim Alajbegović ⇄ Dženis Burnić

82' ⇄

FT 3–1

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Match Stats

Qatar

56% Ball Possession 44%

0.65 Expected Goals (xG) 0.67

14 Total Shots 7

5 Shots on Goal 1

4 Shots off Goal 6

5 Blocked Shots 0

4 Shots insidebox 4

10 Shots outsidebox 3

5 Corner Kicks 4

1 Offsides 3

8 Fouls 13

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

0 Goalkeeper Saves 3

506 Total passes 408

443 Passes accurate 345

88% Passes % 85%

-2.18 goals_prevented -2.18

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Kerim Alajbegović M	8.0	82'	1	–	1	33 (28%)	–
13 Ivan Bašić M	7.9	93'	–	1	1	67 (64%)	1
26 Ermin Mahmic M	7.6	29'	1	–	1	3 (3%)	1
21 Stjepan Radeljić D	7.0	93'	–	–	–	86 (79%)	–
18 Nikola Katić D	6.9	63'	–	–	1	65 (62%)	–
5 Sead Kolašinac D	6.9	93'	–	–	–	47 (43%)	1
15 Amar Memić M	6.9	48'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	1
14 Ivan Šunjić M	6.9	45'	–	–	1	36 (31%)	1
11 Edin Džeko F	6.7	64'	–	–	1	17 (10%)	–
20 Esmir Bajraktarević M	6.6	93'	–	–	2	25 (21%)	–
6 Benjamin Tahirović M	6.6	48'	–	–	–	25 (21%)	1
3 Dennis Hadžikadunić D	6.6	30'	–	1	–	9 (7%)	2
1 Nikola Vasilj G	6.3	93'	–	–	–	40 (31%)	–
24 Arjan Malić D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	26 (23%)	1
17 Dženis Burnić M	6.3	11'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
10 Ermedin Demirović F	6.2	93'	–	–	1	14 (9%)	–

Qatar

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Hassan Al Haydos F	7.3	56'	1	–	1	10 (7%)	–
8 Edmilson Junior F	7.2	79'	–	1	–	20 (16%)	1
11 Akram Afif F	6.9	93'	–	–	2	46 (43%)	–
12 Karim Boudiaf M	6.9	72'	–	–	–	48 (45%)	–
17 Ahmed Al-Ganehi F	6.7	37'	–	–	1	9 (8%)	1
6 Abdelaziz Hatem M	6.5	48'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	1
20 Ahmed Fathi M	6.5	79'	–	–	–	45 (41%)	3
16 Boualem Khoukhi D	6.3	93'	–	–	1	55 (47%)	1
26 Mohamed Naceur Almanai M	6.3	14'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
7 Ahmed Alaaeldin F	6.3	14'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
19 Almoez Ali F	6.2	21'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
2 Pedro Miguel D	6.0	93'	–	–	2	29 (24%)	4
4 Issa Laye D	6.0	93'	–	–	–	38 (35%)	–
5 Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam M	5.9	45'	–	–	–	18 (16%)	–
1 Mahmud Abunad G	5.3	93'	–	–	–	25 (14%)	–
18 Sultan Al-Brake D	5.3	93'	–	–	–	31 (23%)	–

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Qatar oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.8%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Bosnia & Herzegovina

DLWLD

Qatar

WLLDW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 24, 2026, Bosnia & Herzegovina will host Qatar. Bosnia has shown a solid attacking prowess, with key players like Edin Džeko contributing significantly to their goal tally, boasting an average of over 1.5 goals per game in recent qualifiers. Conversely, Qatar's defensive vulnerabilities have been evident, conceding an average of 2 goals per match in their last five outings. This matchup will likely hinge on Bosnia's ability to exploit Qatar's defensive frailties while Qatar will aim to counter with quick transitions. Expect a competitive clash as both teams seek vital points in their World Cup campaigns.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

26%

45%

Draw

32%

45%

Away

42%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Qatar goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	12	9	4	1
1	9	15	8	4	1
2	5	6	4	2	1
3	2	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Bosnia & Herzegovina goals · most likely 1–1 (14.8%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

32%

Home Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

32%

Home Win

26%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

62% Away (No Draw) 38% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Away Win by 2+ 10% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

42% Away Scores More 32% Equal Goals 26% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

21%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.6%	12.1%	8.8%	3.7%	1.2%
1	8.6%	14.8%	8.3%	3.5%	1.1%
2	4.9%	6.2%	4.0%	1.7%	0.5%
3	1.6%	2.0%	1.3%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Bosnia & Herzegovina	Draw	Qatar
Bosnia & Herzegovina	14.9%	4.2%	1.8%
Draw	10.9%	21.5%	16.4%
Qatar	1.3%	4.1%	25.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

39%

37%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

65%

0.5

35%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Bosnia & Herzegovina — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Sep	A Poland	D	0 - 0
02 Jul	A USA	L	2 - 0
24 Jun	H Qatar	W	3 - 1
18 Jun	A Switzerland	L	4 - 1
12 Jun	A Canada	D	1 - 1

Qatar — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Sep	H Bahrain	W	2 - 0
24 Jun	A Bosnia & Herzegovina	L	3 - 1
18 Jun	A Canada	L	6 - 0
13 Jun	H Switzerland	D	1 - 1
10 Feb	A Jordan	W	1 - 3

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Qatar

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Julen Lopetegui

1 Abunada

18 Al-Brake

4 Laye

16 Khoukhi

2 Miguel

12 Boudiaf

20 Fathi

5 Abdulsallam

10 Haydos

11 Afif

8 Junior

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Mahmud Abunada	G
2	Pedro Miguel	D
16	Boualem Khoukhi	D
4	Issa Laye	D
18	Sultan Al-Brake	D
5	Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam	M
20	Ahmed Fathi	M
12	Karim Boudiaf	M
8	Edmilson Junior	F
11	Akram Afif	F
10	Hassan Al Haydos	F

Substitutes

6	Abdelaziz Hatem	M
17	Ahmed Al-Ganehi	F
22	Meshaal Barsham	G
21	Salah Zakaria	G
3	Lucas Mendes	D
25	Al-Hashmi Al-Hussain	D
13	Ayoub Al Oui	D
19	Almoez Ali	F
26	Mohamed Naceur Almanai	M
24	Tahsin Mohammed Jamshid	F
9	Mohammed Muntari	F
7	Ahmed Alaaeldin	F
15	Yusuf Abdurisag	F