Switzerland vs Canada Prognose

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

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Canada

Away

BC Place, Vancouver, British Columbia

KI-Tipp Switzerland oder Unentschieden

43%

31%

25%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Switzerland vs. Canada Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Switzerland eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 43%, für Canada 25% und für ein Unentschieden 31%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Match Report

Switzerland edged out Canada 2–1 in a tense World Cup group stage encounter that remained goalless at the break before bursting to life in the second half. Rubén Vargas broke the deadlock just seconds after the restart, capitalising on the momentum Switzerland carried into the second period. Canada hit back almost immediately through Johan Manzambi in the 57th minute, levelling the contest and setting up a frantic final half-hour.

The decisive moment came from Promise David in the 76th minute, restoring Switzerland's lead and ultimately proving the winner. Canada had the better of several statistical measures — generating more shots, more corners, and a marginally higher expected goals figure of 1.19 to Switzerland's 1.06 — yet it was the Swiss who showed greater clinical efficiency when it mattered. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Switzerland win as the most likely outcome at 43%, a call that proved correct.

Both sides made extensive use of their substitutes as the game wore on, with five changes apiece reflecting the physical demands of the contest. A yellow card for Liam Millar late on summed up Canada's frustration as Switzerland held firm to secure all three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 32'

Cyle Larin Yellow Card

Granit Xhaka Yellow Card

32' ▮

HT 0–0

Rubén Vargas assist: Johan Manzambi

46' ⚽ 1–0

Johan Manzambi assist: Breel Embolo

57' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 58'

Mathieu Choinière ⇄ Stephen Eustaquio

⇄ 58'

Ali Ahmed ⇄ Liam Millar

⇄ 58'

Cyle Larin ⇄ Tani Oluwaseyi

Luca Jaquez ⇄ Silvan Widmer

74' ⇄

Djibril Sow ⇄ Michel Aebischer

74' ⇄

⇄ 75'

Tajon Buchanan ⇄ Promise David

⚽ 2–1 76'

Promise David assist: Nathan-Dylan Saliba

Rubén Vargas ⇄ Dan Ndoye

80' ⇄

⇄ 83'

Richie Laryea ⇄ Jacob Shaffelburg

Johan Manzambi ⇄ Christian Fassnacht

85' ⇄

Breel Embolo ⇄ Cédric Itten

85' ⇄

▮ 87'

Liam Millar Yellow Card

FT 2–1

Switzerland

Match Stats

Canada

56% Ball Possession 44%

1.06 Expected Goals (xG) 1.19

6 Total Shots 11

4 Shots on Goal 5

1 Shots off Goal 3

1 Blocked Shots 3

5 Shots insidebox 10

1 Shots outsidebox 1

2 Corner Kicks 7

1 Offsides 3

19 Fouls 12

1 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 2

440 Total passes 332

367 Passes accurate 264

83% Passes % 80%

-0.80 goals_prevented -0.80

Switzerland

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Johan Manzambi M	8.2	85'	1	1	1	15 (10%)	–
17 Rubén Vargas M	7.5	80'	1	–	1	15 (8%)	1
7 Breel Embolo F	7.5	85'	–	1	2	13 (10%)	–
1 Gregor Kobel G	7.3	94'	–	–	–	46 (40%)	–
10 Granit Xhaka M	7.3	94'	–	–	1	58 (54%)	1
13 Ricardo Rodríguez D	7.2	94'	–	–	–	34 (25%)	3
5 Manuel Akanji D	6.9	94'	–	–	–	72 (65%)	2
4 Nico Elvedi D	6.9	94'	–	–	–	66 (58%)	1
11 Dan Ndoye F	6.7	14'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
25 Luca Jaquez D	6.7	74'	–	–	–	31 (22%)	2
8 Remo Freuler M	6.6	94'	–	–	–	46 (39%)	2
15 Djibril Sow M	6.3	74'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	1
16 Christian Fassnacht M	6.3	9'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	1
20 Michel Aebischer M	6.2	20'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	1
3 Silvan Widmer D	6.2	20'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
26 Cédric Itten F	6.2	9'	–	–	–	1	–

Canada

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
24 Promise David F	7.5	19'	1	–	2	2 (1%)	–
25 Nathan-Dylan Saliba M	7.3	94'	–	1	–	40 (35%)	2
20 Ali Ahmed M	6.9	58'	–	–	1	13 (10%)	–
6 Mathieu Choinière M	6.9	58'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	1
7 Stephen Eustaquio M	6.7	36'	–	–	–	25 (22%)	–
11 Liam Millar F	6.7	36'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
16 Maxime Crépeau G	6.5	94'	–	–	–	20 (14%)	–
4 Luc De Fougerolles D	6.5	94'	–	–	1	42 (35%)	2
10 Jonathan David F	6.5	94'	–	–	1	25 (17%)	–
14 Jacob Shaffelburg F	6.5	11'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
2 Alistair Johnston D	6.3	94'	–	–	1	30 (18%)	–
17 Tajon Buchanan M	6.3	75'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	2
12 Tani Oluwaseyi F	6.3	36'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	1
9 Cyle Larin F	6.3	58'	–	–	1	6 (4%)	–
22 Richie Laryea D	6.2	83'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	–
13 Derek Cornelius D	5.6	94'	–	–	1	44 (36%)	1

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Confidence Low (43%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Switzerland oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

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Switzerland

LDWWW

Canada

LWLWD

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup clash on June 24, 2026, Switzerland will host Canada, presenting an intriguing matchup. Switzerland, known for their solid defensive structure, will rely on their midfield depth led by Granit Xhaka and their striking options like Haris Seferović. Meanwhile, Canada, buoyed by their rising star Alphonso Davies and a dynamic attack featuring Cyle Larin, will look to exploit any defensive lapses. Historically, Switzerland has shown resilience in high-stakes matches, while Canada aims to establish themselves on the world stage. This match could hinge on Switzerland's ability to contain Canada's pace and creativity in the final third.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

43%

10%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

25%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Canada goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	12	8	5	1
1	12	15	6	2
2	9	9	4	1
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Switzerland goals · most likely 1–1 (14.7%)

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Players in form

Switzerland

J. Manzambi 3 gls

Canada

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

31%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

31%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

63% Home (No Draw) 37% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Home Win by 2+ 9% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

43% Home Scores More 31% Equal Goals 25% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.1%	8.2%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%
1	12.0%	14.7%	6.2%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.0%	8.6%	4.1%	1.3%	0.3%
3	4.0%	3.8%	1.8%	0.6%	0.1%
4	1.3%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Switzerland	Draw	Canada
Switzerland	25.9%	4.1%	1.3%
Draw	16.8%	20.9%	10.5%
Canada	1.9%	4.2%	14.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

39%

37%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

65%

0.5

35%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Switzerland vs Canada

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Switzerland — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
12 Jul	A Argentina	L	3 - 1
07 Jul	H Colombia	D	0 - 0
03 Jul	H Algeria	W	2 - 0
24 Jun	H Canada	W	2 - 1
18 Jun	H Bosnia & Herzegovina	W	4 - 1

Canada — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Jul	H Morocco	L	0 - 3
28 Jun	A South Africa	W	0 - 1
24 Jun	A Switzerland	L	2 - 1
18 Jun	H Qatar	W	6 - 0
12 Jun	H Bosnia & Herzegovina	D	1 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Switzerland

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Murat Yakin

1 Kobel

13 Rodríguez

5 Akanji

4 Elvedi

25 Jaquez

10 Xhaka

8 Freuler

17 Vargas

9 Manzambi

15 Sow

7 Embolo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Gregor Kobel	G
25	Luca Jaquez	D
4	Nico Elvedi	D
5	Manuel Akanji	D
13	Ricardo Rodríguez	D
8	Remo Freuler	M
10	Granit Xhaka	M
15	Djibril Sow	M
9	Johan Manzambi	M
17	Rubén Vargas	M
7	Breel Embolo	F

Substitutes

21	Marvin Keller	G
12	Yvon Mvogo	G
18	Eray Cömert	D
24	Aurèle Amenda	D
3	Silvan Widmer	D
6	Denis Zakaria	M
11	Dan Ndoye	F
20	Michel Aebischer	M
16	Christian Fassnacht	M
14	Ardon Jashari	M
22	Fabian Rieder	M
19	Noah Okafor	F
23	Zeki Amdouni	F
26	Cédric Itten	F

Canada

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Jesse Marsch

16 Crépeau

22 Laryea

13 Cornelius

4 Fougerolles

2 Johnston

20 Ahmed

6 Choinière

25 Saliba

17 Buchanan

9 Larin

10 David

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	Maxime Crépeau	G
2	Alistair Johnston	D
4	Luc De Fougerolles	D
13	Derek Cornelius	D
22	Richie Laryea	D
17	Tajon Buchanan	M
25	Nathan-Dylan Saliba	M
6	Mathieu Choinière	M
20	Ali Ahmed	M
10	Jonathan David	F
9	Cyle Larin	F

Substitutes

7	Stephen Eustaquio	M
11	Liam Millar	F
12	Tani Oluwaseyi	F
1	Dayne St. Clair	G
18	Owen Goodman	G
5	Joel Waterman	D
23	Niko Sigur	M
15	Moise Bombito	D
19	Alphonso Davies	D
21	Jonathan Osorio	M
14	Jacob Shaffelburg	F
24	Promise David	F
26	Jayden Nelson	F