Leeds vs Brighton Prediction
Leeds vs Brighton prediction: Sportiko gives Leeds a 16% chance of winning, Brighton 57% and the draw 27%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Leeds secured a dramatic late victory over Brighton at Elland Road, with the match remaining goalless through a first half that saw the hosts dominate possession without finding a breakthrough. Both managers turned to their benches around the hour mark, Leeds introducing Aaronson, Tanaka and Daniel James while Brighton responded with Veltman and Welbeck in search of a foothold in the game.
Despite controlling 66% of the ball and generating an expected goals figure of 3.06 compared to Brighton's 0.39, Leeds had to wait until the 90th minute for the decisive moment, when Dominic Calvert-Lewin broke the deadlock with a late winner. The goal proved costly for Calvert-Lewin personally, however, as he was shown a yellow card in stoppage time. Brighton managed just one shot on target across the entire match.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Brighton win as the most likely outcome at 57%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark as Leeds' sustained pressure finally told in the closing seconds of regulation.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Leeds
Match Stats
Leeds
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Karl Darlow G | 8.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (16%) | – |
| 9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin F | 7.9 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 18 (10%) | – |
| 4 Ethan Ampadu M | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (34%) | 1 |
| 15 Jaka Bijol D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (16%) | – |
| 6 Joe Rodon D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 18 (12%) | – |
| 18 Anton Stach M | 7.2 | 74' | – | – | 1 | 21 (12%) | 3 |
| 23 Sebastiaan Bornauw D | 7.0 | 89' | – | – | – | 23 (20%) | 1 |
| 22 Ao Tanaka M | 6.9 | 60' | – | – | – | 20 (17%) | – |
| 24 James Justin M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (11%) | 2 |
| 7 Daniel James M | 6.9 | 60' | – | – | – | 12 (4%) | 1 |
| 11 Brenden Aaronson F | 6.7 | 60' | – | – | – | 12 (11%) | – |
| 29 Wilfried Gnonto F | 6.7 | 30' | – | – | 1 | 8 (4%) | 2 |
| 8 Sean Longstaff M | 6.6 | 30' | – | – | – | 16 (11%) | 1 |
| 25 Sam Byram D | 6.6 | 10' | – | – | – | 5 (2%) | 1 |
| 14 Lukas Nmecha F | 6.6 | 30' | – | – | – | 7 (7%) | – |
| 10 Joël Piroe F | 6.5 | 16' | – | – | 1 | 1 (1%) | – |
Brighton
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Pascal Groß M | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 68 (61%) | 1 |
| 24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 28 (26%) | – |
| 29 Maxim De Cuyper D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 60 (50%) | – |
| 17 Carlos Baleba M | 7.0 | 82' | – | – | 1 | 37 (31%) | – |
| 19 Charalampos Kostoulas F | 7.0 | 8' | – | – | 1 | 9 (7%) | – |
| 11 Yankuba Minteh M | 6.9 | 89' | – | – | – | 20 (14%) | – |
| 34 Joël Veltman D | 6.9 | 65' | – | – | – | 37 (33%) | 2 |
| 18 Danny Welbeck F | 6.7 | 65' | – | – | 1 | 17 (15%) | 1 |
| 5 Lewis Dunk D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 92 (83%) | – |
| 13 Jack Hinshelwood M | 6.5 | 82' | – | – | 3 | 27 (23%) | 1 |
| 10 Georginio Rutter F | 6.5 | 25' | – | – | 2 | 6 (2%) | 1 |
| 7 Solly March M | 6.5 | 8' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 26 Yasin Ayari M | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | 6 (5%) | – |
| 1 B. Verbruggen G | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (20%) | – |
| 25 Diego Gómez M | 6.0 | 25' | – | – | 1 | 17 (15%) | – |
| 6 J. van Hecke D | 5.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 98 (85%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
D. Calvert-Lewin
3 gls
P. Groß
3 gls
C. Kostoulas
2 gls
M. Yalcouyé
2 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Leeds vs Brighton
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep 2026 | Brighton | 1 - 1 | Leeds |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Brighton | 3 - 0 | Leeds |
| 11 Mar 2023 | Leeds | 2 - 2 | Brighton |
Leeds — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Crystal Palace | D | 0 - 0 |
| 14 Sep | H Newcastle | W | 4 - 1 |
| 09 Sep | A Chelsea | L | 6 - 3 |
| 05 Sep | A Brighton | D | 1 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | H Brentford | D | 1 - 1 |
Brighton — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Arsenal | W | 3 - 0 |
| 16 Sep | A Manchester United | W | 2 - 3 |
| 13 Sep | A Coventry | W | 0 - 5 |
| 05 Sep | H Leeds | D | 1 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | A Chelsea | L | 4 - 3 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Brighton
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: F. Hürzeler
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Verbruggen | G |
| 34 | J. Veltman | D |
| 6 | J. P. van Hecke | D |
| 5 | L. Dunk | D |
| 29 | M. De Cuyper | D |
| 30 | P. Gross | M |
| 17 | C. Baleba | M |
| 24 | F. Kadioglu | M |
| 13 | J. Hinshelwood | M |
| 11 | Y. Minteh | M |
| 18 | D. Welbeck | F |
Substitutes
| 23 | J. Steele | G |
| 20 | J. Milner | M |
| 7 | S. March | M |
| 21 | O. Boscagli | D |
| 33 | M. O'Riley | M |
| 26 | Y. Ayari | M |
| 25 | D. Gomez | M |
| 19 | C. Kostoulas | F |
| 10 | G. Rutter | F |
Leeds
Formation: 3-5-2
Coach: D. Farke
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | K. Darlow | G |
| 6 | J. Rodon | D |
| 15 | J. Bijol | D |
| 23 | S. Bornauw | D |
| 7 | D. James | M |
| 18 | A. Stach | M |
| 4 | E. Ampadu | M |
| 22 | A. Tanaka | M |
| 24 | J. Justin | M |
| 9 | D. Calvert-Lewin | F |
| 11 | B. Aaronson | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | Lucas Perri | G |
| 51 | A. Cresswell | M |
| 65 | J. Lienou | D |
| 25 | S. Byram | D |
| 14 | L. Nmecha | F |
| 8 | S. Longstaff | M |
| 10 | J. Piroe | F |
| 29 | W. Gnonto | F |
| 47 | R. Chadwick-Chaplin | M |