Leeds vs Wolves Prediction
Leeds vs Wolves prediction: Sportiko gives Leeds a 41% chance of winning, Wolves 28% and the draw 31%. Last updated 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Leeds secured a commanding 3-0 home victory over Wolves in Premier League matchday 33, with the result effectively settled inside the opening 20 minutes. James Justin broke the deadlock in the 18th minute, and Noah Okafor doubled the advantage just two minutes later, giving Leeds a 2-0 cushion at half-time despite Wolves dominating possession with 56% of the ball.
The statistics told a curious story, with Wolves generating an expected goals figure of 2.82 compared to Leeds' 0.57, yet converting little of that pressure into genuine threat on the scoresheet. Leeds held firm throughout the second half, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin added a penalty in stoppage time to complete the scoreline. Brenden Aaronson picked up a yellow card in the 73rd minute before being substituted five minutes later, while James Justin was cautioned deep into added time.
The result was a disciplined defensive performance from Leeds, who absorbed sustained Wolves pressure and punished their opponents on the counter. The pre-match AI model had identified a Leeds win as the most likely outcome, and the hosts duly delivered.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Leeds
Match Stats
Leeds
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 James Justin D | 8.6 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 44 (37%) | 7 |
| 9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin F | 8.3 | 89' | 1 | – | 4 | 18 (8%) | – |
| 19 Noah Okafor F | 8.0 | 67' | 1 | 1 | 2 | 23 (18%) | 1 |
| 11 Brenden Aaronson F | 7.3 | 78' | – | 1 | – | 18 (16%) | – |
| 5 Pascal Struijk D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 57 (54%) | 2 |
| 22 Ao Tanaka M | 7.2 | 89' | – | – | – | 44 (40%) | – |
| 4 Ethan Ampadu M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 60 (52%) | – |
| 26 Karl Darlow G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (31%) | – |
| 3 Gabriel Gudmundsson M | 6.7 | 89' | – | – | – | 45 (34%) | 1 |
| 15 Jaka Bijol D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 59 (47%) | – |
| 29 Wilfried Gnonto F | 6.5 | 23' | – | – | – | 10 (6%) | – |
| 2 Jayden Bogle M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 29 (21%) | 1 |
| 44 Ilia Gruev M | 6.3 | 12' | – | – | – | 9 (5%) | – |
| 8 Sean Longstaff M | — | 1' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 14 Lukas Nmecha F | — | 1' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 6 Joe Rodon D | — | 1' | – | – | – | 7 (4%) | – |
Wolves
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jean-Ricner Bellegarde F | 7.0 | 67' | – | – | – | 19 (14%) | 2 |
| 7 André M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (30%) | 4 |
| 37 Ladislav Krejčí D | 6.9 | 75' | – | – | 2 | 42 (34%) | 2 |
| 4 Santiago Bueno D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 45 (31%) | 5 |
| 25 Daniel Bentley G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (15%) | – |
| 9 Adam Armstrong F | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 13 (9%) | – |
| 36 Mateus Mané F | 6.6 | 52' | – | – | 1 | 8 (4%) | 4 |
| 11 Hwang Hee-chan F | 6.5 | 15' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | – |
| 8 João Gomes M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 41 (29%) | 1 |
| 24 Toti Gomes D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 49 (42%) | 2 |
| 3 Hugo Bueno M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (25%) | 3 |
| 38 Jackson Tchatchoua M | 6.2 | 45' | – | – | – | 14 (12%) | – |
| 47 Angel Gomes F | 6.2 | 38' | – | – | – | 11 (9%) | – |
| 21 Rodrigo Gomes D | 6.2 | 23' | – | – | 1 | 2 (2%) | – |
| 17 Pedro Lima D | 5.6 | 45' | – | – | – | 13 (5%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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D. Calvert-Lewin
3 gls
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Leeds vs Wolves
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2025 | Wolves | 1 - 3 | Leeds |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Wolves | 2 - 4 | Leeds |
| 06 Aug 2022 | Leeds | 2 - 1 | Wolves |
Leeds — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Crystal Palace | D | 0 - 0 |
| 14 Sep | H Newcastle | W | 4 - 1 |
| 09 Sep | A Chelsea | L | 6 - 3 |
| 05 Sep | A Brighton | D | 1 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | H Brentford | D | 1 - 1 |
Wolves — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H West Brom | W | 1 - 0 |
| 16 Sep | A Everton | L | 1 - 0 |
| 13 Sep | A Sheffield Utd | W | 0 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | A Birmingham | D | 2 - 2 |
| 01 Sep | A West Ham | L | 4 - 2 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Wolves
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Rob Edwards
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | D. Bentley | G |
| 4 | S. Bueno | D |
| 24 | Toti | D |
| 37 | L. Krejci | D |
| 38 | J. Tchatchoua | M |
| 7 | Andre | M |
| 8 | Joao Gomes | M |
| 3 | H. Bueno | M |
| 27 | J. Bellegarde | F |
| 47 | A. Gomes | F |
| 9 | A. Armstrong | F |
Substitutes
| 40 | A. Brooks | G |
| 11 | Hwang Hee-Chan | F |
| 6 | D. M. Wolfe | D |
| 14 | T. Arokodare | F |
| 21 | R. Gomes | D |
| 59 | S. Olagunju | D |
| 36 | M. Mane | F |
| 74 | T. Edozie | - |
| 17 | Pedro Lima | D |
Leeds
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: D. Farke
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | K. Darlow | G |
| 24 | J. Justin | D |
| 15 | J. Bijol | D |
| 5 | P. Struijk | D |
| 2 | J. Bogle | M |
| 4 | E. Ampadu | M |
| 22 | A. Tanaka | M |
| 3 | G. Gudmundsson | M |
| 11 | B. Aaronson | F |
| 19 | N. Okafor | F |
| 9 | D. Calvert-Lewin | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | Lucas Perri | G |
| 23 | S. Bornauw | D |
| 6 | J. Rodon | D |
| 14 | L. Nmecha | F |
| 8 | S. Longstaff | M |
| 10 | J. Piroe | F |
| 44 | I. Gruev | M |
| 29 | W. Gnonto | F |
| 40 | F. Buonanotte | M |