Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction
Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction: Sportiko gives Chelsea a 19% chance of winning, Manchester United 57% and the draw 24%. Last updated 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Manchester United claimed a hard-fought 1–0 victory at Stamford Bridge, with the decisive moment arriving in the 43rd minute when Matheus Cunha, despite picking up a yellow card earlier in the half, converted to give the visitors a lead they would carry into the break and ultimately protect for the full ninety minutes. An early substitution saw Estêvão introduced for Chelsea in the 16th minute, though it did little to shift the balance of play.
The statistics told a clear story of United's dominance throughout. The visitors controlled 59% of possession, registered 21 total shots to Chelsea's four, and generated an expected goals figure of 1.57 compared to a meagre 0.29 for the hosts, who managed just one shot on target across the entire match. United's seven corner kicks to Chelsea's one further underlined their superiority. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Manchester United win as the most likely outcome at 57%, a call that proved correct.
Chelsea pushed late through a flurry of substitutions, but United held firm despite late yellow cards for Mason Mount and Kobbie Mainoo in stoppage time, securing three points that reflected their commanding performance.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Chelsea
Match Stats
Chelsea
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Enzo Fernández M | 7.7 | 88' | – | – | 2 | 81 (72%) | 1 |
| 25 Moisés Caicedo M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 85 (79%) | 2 |
| 27 Malo Gusto D | 7.0 | 81' | – | – | – | 56 (48%) | 1 |
| 7 Pedro Neto M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 45 (38%) | 1 |
| 29 Wesley Fofana D | 7.0 | 81' | – | – | 1 | 78 (74%) | – |
| 21 J. Hato D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 84 (77%) | 2 |
| 10 Cole Palmer M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 30 (29%) | 1 |
| 49 Alejandro Garnacho F | 6.9 | 74' | – | – | – | 38 (31%) | 1 |
| 23 Trevoh Chalobah D | 6.7 | 9' | – | – | – | 13 (12%) | – |
| 41 Estêvão M | 6.7 | 16' | – | – | 2 | 2 | – |
| 34 Josh Acheampong D | 6.7 | 9' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 9 Liam Delap F | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 9 (8%) | – |
| 3 Marc Cucurella D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 45 (42%) | 1 |
| 1 Robert Sánchez G | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (26%) | – |
| 45 Roméo Lavia M | — | 2' | – | – | – | – | – |
Manchester United
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Ayden Heaven D | 8.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 54 (49%) | 2 |
| 10 Matheus Cunha M | 7.5 | 81' | 1 | – | 1 | 21 (20%) | – |
| 18 Casemiro M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 47 (39%) | 3 |
| 31 Senne Lammens G | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (23%) | – |
| 8 Bruno Fernandes M | 7.2 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 60 (47%) | 1 |
| 2 Diogo Dalot D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (26%) | 3 |
| 23 Luke Shaw D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (25%) | 1 |
| 37 Kobbie Mainoo M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 55 (50%) | 3 |
| 3 Noussair Mazraoui D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 49 (43%) | 2 |
| 16 Amad Diallo F | 6.7 | 10' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 7 Mason Mount M | 6.7 | 9' | – | – | – | 9 (9%) | 1 |
| 11 Joshua Zirkzee F | 6.6 | 8' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 30 Benjamin Šeško F | 6.3 | 80' | – | – | – | 11 (9%) | – |
| 19 Bryan Mbeumo M | 6.3 | 87' | – | – | – | 26 (18%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
João Pedro
3 gls
M. Rogers
3 gls
C. Palmer
2 gls
Bruno Fernandes
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Chelsea vs Manchester United
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2025 | Manchester United | 2 - 1 | Chelsea |
| 16 May 2025 | Chelsea | 1 - 0 | Manchester United |
| 03 Nov 2024 | Manchester United | 1 - 1 | Chelsea |
Chelsea — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | A Brentford | L | 3 - 0 |
| 12 Sep | H Hull City | D | 2 - 2 |
| 09 Sep | H Leeds | W | 6 - 3 |
| 06 Sep | A Arsenal | L | 2 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | H Brighton | W | 4 - 3 |
Manchester United — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Fulham | D | 1 - 1 |
| 16 Sep | H Brighton | L | 2 - 3 |
| 13 Sep | H Manchester City | L | 0 - 1 |
| 10 Sep | H Sabah FA | W | 4 - 0 |
| 06 Sep | A Everton | D | 2 - 2 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Manchester United
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Michael Carrick
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | S. Lammens | G |
| 2 | D. Dalot | D |
| 3 | N. Mazraoui | D |
| 26 | A. Heaven | D |
| 23 | L. Shaw | D |
| 18 | Casemiro | M |
| 37 | K. Mainoo | M |
| 19 | B. Mbeumo | M |
| 8 | B. Fernandes | M |
| 10 | M. Cunha | M |
| 30 | B. Sesko | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | A. Bayindir | G |
| 7 | M. Mount | M |
| 11 | J. Zirkzee | F |
| 77 | J. Thwaites | M |
| 12 | T. Malacia | D |
| 25 | M. Ugarte | M |
| 16 | A. Diallo | F |
| 39 | T. Fletcher | M |
| 61 | S. Lacey | F |
Chelsea
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Calum McFarlane
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. Sanchez | G |
| 27 | M. Gusto | D |
| 29 | W. Fofana | D |
| 21 | J. Hato | D |
| 3 | M. Cucurella | D |
| 25 | M. Caicedo | M |
| 8 | E. Fernandez | M |
| 41 | Estêvão | M |
| 10 | C. Palmer | M |
| 7 | P. Neto | M |
| 9 | L. Delap | F |
Substitutes
| 28 | T. Sharman-Lowe | G |
| 23 | T. Chalobah | D |
| 49 | A. Garnacho | F |
| 17 | Andrey Santos | M |
| 38 | M. Guiu | F |
| 4 | T. Adarabioyo | D |
| 45 | R. Lavia | M |
| 14 | D. Essugo | M |
| 34 | J. Acheampong | D |