New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction

Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 18

Post on X

Toronto FC

Away

AI прогноза Труден успех или равенство за New York City FC

63%

23%

14%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

New York City FC vs Toronto FC prediction: Sportiko gives New York City FC a 63% chance of winning, Toronto FC 14% and the draw 23%. Last updated 1 Aug 2026, 01:42.

Timeline

▮ 6'

Richie Laryea Yellow Card

Nicolás Fernández Penalty

8' ⚽ 1–0

Talles Magno Yellow Card

11' ▮

Nicolás Fernández Yellow Card

18' ▮

▮ 45+6'

Jonathan Osorio Yellow Card

⚽ 1–1 45+6'

Đorđe Mihailović

HT 1–1

▮ 56'

Niklas Dorsch Yellow Card

Bénie Traoré ⇄ Malachi Jones

59' ⇄

Agustin Ojeda ⇄ Hannes Wolf

59' ⇄

▮ 61'

Jackson Gilman Yellow Card

⇄ 71'

Niklas Dorsch ⇄ Alonso Coello

⇄ 71'

Josh Sargent ⇄ Deandre Kerr

⇄ 72'

Đorđe Mihailović ⇄ Derrick Etienne

Talles Magno ⇄ Máximo Carrizo

72' ⇄

Nicolás Fernández ⇄ Seymour Garfield-Reid

86' ⇄

Thiago Martins ⇄ Mitja Ilenič

86' ⇄

⇄ 87'

Theo Corbeanu ⇄ Malik Henry

FT 1–1

New York City FC

Match Stats

Toronto FC

49% Ball Possession 51%

2.08 Expected Goals (xG) 1.00

16 Total Shots 13

5 Shots on Goal 5

7 Shots off Goal 5

4 Blocked Shots 3

13 Shots insidebox 8

3 Shots outsidebox 5

3 Corner Kicks 2

2 Offsides 2

11 Fouls 12

2 Yellow Cards 4

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 4

363 Total passes 370

301 Passes accurate 292

83% Passes % 79%

1.21 goals_prevented 1.21

New York City FC

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Nicolás Fernández M	7.9	86'	1	–	2	32 (29%)	2
6 James Sands D	7.6	90'	–	–	1	63 (55%)	1
24 Tayvon Gray D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	41 (35%)	3
49 Matthew Freese G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	19 (14%)	–
26 Agustin Ojeda M	7.3	59'	–	–	1	10 (7%)	–
2 Nico Cavallo D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	28 (26%)	4
32 Jonathan Shore M	7.0	90'	–	–	1	30 (21%)	3
35 Mitja Ilenič D	6.9	10'	–	–	1	3 (2%)	–
17 Hannes Wolf F	6.7	31'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
99 Seymour Garfield-Reid F	6.7	10'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
13 Thiago Martins D	6.3	86'	–	–	–	64 (58%)	–
88 Malachi Jones F	6.3	31'	–	–	–	11 (8%)	1
9 Bénie Traoré M	6.3	59'	–	–	1	11 (7%)	–
29 Máximo Carrizo M	6.3	18'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	2
8 Andrés Perea M	6.2	90'	–	–	2	22 (14%)	–
11 Talles Magno F	6.2	72'	–	–	3	13 (11%)	–

Toronto FC

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Luka Gavran G	7.7	90'	–	–	–	31 (18%)	–
10 Đorđe Mihailović M	7.7	72'	1	–	1	23 (19%)	1
20 Dániel Sallói M	7.3	90'	–	–	5	31 (24%)	–
14 Alonso Coello M	7.2	19'	–	–	1	18 (16%)	1
19 Kobe Franklin D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	34 (27%)	5
38 Jackson Gilman D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	53 (47%)	–
6 Niklas Dorsch M	6.9	71'	–	–	–	34 (31%)	2
7 Theo Corbeanu M	6.7	87'	–	–	–	17 (16%)	–
21 Jonathan Osorio M	6.6	90'	–	–	1	31 (25%)	–
25 Walker Zimmerman D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	45 (33%)	2
78 Malik Henry M	6.6	9'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
29 Deandre Kerr F	6.6	19'	–	–	–	5 (2%)	3
22 Richie Laryea D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	33 (26%)	1
11 Derrick Etienne F	6.3	18'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
9 Josh Sargent F	6.3	71'	–	–	–	11 (5%)	–

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Confidence Medium (63%)

At a glance

Нашият анализ

Труден успех или равенство за New York City FC

Most likely score

1:0 · 20.9%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

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New York City FC

DLWLD

Toronto FC

LLLWD

Last 1 meetings New York City FC · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

New York City FC faces Toronto FC in a crucial MLS matchup. NYCFC has relied heavily on their attacking prowess, averaging 1.8 goals per game this season, while Toronto's defense has struggled, conceding approximately 1.7 goals per game. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, making this match pivotal. Key players to watch include NYCFC's leading scorer, who has contributed significantly to their offensive output, and Toronto's playmaker, who can create opportunities despite the team's defensive vulnerabilities. The outcome could hinge on NYCFC's ability to exploit Toronto's backline while maintaining defensive solidity.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

63%

45%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

14%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toronto FC goals →

	0	1	2
0	13	3	1
1	21	8	1
2	20	6	1
3	12	4	1
4	5	2
5	2	1

↑ New York City FC goals · most likely 1–0 (20.9%)

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Players in form

New York City FC

N. Fernández Mercau 15 gls

Toronto FC

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

23%

Away Win

14%

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

37%

1.5

63%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

23%

Away Win

14%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

94% Home (No Draw) 6% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

45% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

73% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 5% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

37%

1.5

63%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

24%

28%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.0%	3.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	20.9%	7.9%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2	19.7%	6.3%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%
3	11.8%	3.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
4	5.3%	1.7%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

36%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

35%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	New York City FC	Draw	Toronto FC
New York City FC	51.1%	2.3%	0.3%
Draw	22.1%	16.9%	3.1%
Toronto FC	0.8%	1.3%	2.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

47%

1.5

53%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

73%

23%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

90%

0.5

10%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

81%

0.5

19%

98%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: New York City FC vs Toronto FC

0 New York City FC Wins

1 Draws

0 Toronto FC Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
29 Aug 2026	Toronto FC	1 - 1	New York City FC

New York City FC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
26 Sep	A Atlanta United FC	D	2 - 2
18 Sep	H New York Red Bulls	L	0 - 1
13 Sep	A Real Salt Lake	W	0 - 2
10 Sep	H New England Revolution	L	1 - 2
04 Sep	H Nashville SC	D	0 - 0

Toronto FC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
27 Sep	A Nashville SC	L	2 - 0
20 Sep	A St. Louis City	L	3 - 1
12 Sep	A Orlando City SC	L	3 - 0
09 Sep	H Nashville SC	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	H Chicago Fire	D	4 - 4

Major League Soccer Standings

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	+34	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	+9	46
3	Inter Miami	27	12	10	5	64	50	+14	46
4	Charlotte	27	12	7	8	47	38	+9	43
5	Chicago Fire	26	12	6	8	46	38	+8	42
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	+10	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	-16	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	-17	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	+5	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	-9	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	-8	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	-4	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	-12	29
14	Atlanta United FC	27	7	6	14	32	45	-13	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	-20	24

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	59	26	+33	50
2	St. Louis City	27	13	8	6	48	36	+12	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	+8	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	+10	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	+2	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	+13	41
7	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	0	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	-7	36
9	Seattle Sounders	26	9	8	9	33	34	-1	35
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	-3	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	-4	32
12	San Diego	27	8	8	11	47	47	0	32
13	Austin	27	7	10	10	35	47	-12	31
14	Minnesota United FC	27	7	8	12	40	49	-9	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	26	6	3	17	31	63	-32	21

Toronto FC

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: R. Fraser

1 Gavran

22 Laryea

38 Gilman

25 Zimmerman

19 Franklin

6 Dorsch

21 Osorio

20 Sallói

10 Mihailović

7 Corbeanu

9 Sargent

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Luka Gavran	G
19	Kobe Franklin	D
25	Walker Zimmerman	D
38	Jackson Gilman	D
22	Richie Laryea	D
21	Jonathan Osorio	M
6	Niklas Dorsch	M
7	Theo Corbeanu	M
10	Đorđe Mihailović	M
20	Dániel Sallói	M
9	Josh Sargent	F

Substitutes

23	William Yarbrough	G
13	Benjamin Kuscevic	D
44	Raheem Edwards	D
78	Malik Henry	M
14	Alonso Coello	M
17	Emilio Aristizábal	F
11	Derrick Etienne	F
99	Jules-Anthony Vilsaint	F
29	Deandre Kerr	F

New York City FC

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Pascal Jansen

49 Freese

2 Cavallo

6 Sands

13 Martins

24 Gray

32 Shore

9 Traoré

8 Perea

7 Fernández

26 Ojeda

11 Magno

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
49	Matthew Freese	G
24	Tayvon Gray	D
13	Thiago Martins	D
6	James Sands	D
2	Nico Cavallo	D
32	Jonathan Shore	M
26	Agustin Ojeda	M
7	Nicolás Fernández	M
8	Andrés Perea	M
9	Bénie Traoré	M
11	Talles Magno	F

Substitutes

30	Tomás Romero	G
23	Max Murray	D
35	Mitja Ilenič	D
29	Máximo Carrizo	M
27	Cooper Flax	M
15	Kevin Pierre	M
17	Hannes Wolf	F
88	Malachi Jones	F
99	Seymour Garfield-Reid	F