Toulouse vs Lille Prediction
Toulouse vs Lille prediction: Sportiko gives Toulouse a 32% chance of winning, Lille 39% and the draw 29%. Last updated 26 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Lille claimed a commanding 4–0 victory at Toulouse in Ligue 1 Matchday 29, despite the hosts dominating possession and creating the better chances on paper. Thomas Meunier broke the deadlock in the 23rd minute to give the visitors a slender half-time lead, with Toulouse's 63% possession and 2.30 expected goals ultimately counting for nothing.
The match turned decisively early in the second half when Toulouse defender Mark McKenzie was shown a red card in the 48th minute. Lille wasted no time exploiting the numerical advantage, with Romain Perraud and Matías Fernández-Pardo adding goals in the 50th and 55th minutes to effectively end the contest. A VAR review in the 87th minute confirmed a penalty, which Olivier Giroud converted to complete the rout, while a late Toulouse goal from Gaëtan Perrin was ruled out by VAR in stoppage time.
The result was a clinical demonstration of game management from Lille, who needed just one shot on target to lead at the break before the red card opened the floodgates. Our pre-match AI model had identified a Lille win as the most likely outcome at 39%, a call that proved correct.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Toulouse
Match Stats
Toulouse
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Yann Gboho F | 7.5 | 76' | – | – | – | 27 (23%) | – |
| 1 Guillaume Restes G | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (21%) | – |
| 23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 56 (51%) | 2 |
| 19 Djibril Sidibé M | 6.9 | 59' | – | – | 1 | 16 (9%) | 3 |
| 35 Seny Koumbassa D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 42 (38%) | 3 |
| 15 Aron Dønnum F | 6.7 | 60' | – | – | – | 20 (19%) | 1 |
| 13 Jacen Russell-Rowe F | 6.7 | 19' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | 1 |
| 20 Emersonn F | 6.5 | 71' | – | – | – | 9 (6%) | 1 |
| 45 Alexis Vossah M | 6.5 | 30' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | – |
| 11 Santiago Hidalgo F | 6.5 | 14' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 18 Pape Diop M | 6.3 | 60' | – | – | – | 30 (26%) | 1 |
| 12 Warren Kamanzi D | 6.3 | 30' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | – |
| 2 Rasmus Nicolaisen D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 53 (41%) | – |
| 4 Charlie Cresswell D | 6.0 | 31' | – | – | – | 21 (16%) | – |
| 24 Dayann Methalie M | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 24 (22%) | 1 |
| 3 Mark McKenzie D | 5.2 | 48' | – | – | – | 17 (14%) | – |
Lille
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Matías Fernández-Pardo F | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 14 (11%) | – |
| 1 Berke Özer G | 8.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (39%) | 1 |
| 12 Thomas Meunier D | 7.9 | 82' | 1 | – | 1 | 55 (48%) | 3 |
| 15 Romain Perraud D | 7.9 | 83' | 1 | – | 2 | 55 (50%) | 2 |
| 23 Aïssa Mandi D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 118 (113%) | – |
| 3 Nathan Ngoy D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 87 (84%) | 1 |
| 6 Nabil Bentaleb M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 74 (64%) | 2 |
| 21 Benjamin André M | 7.2 | 76' | – | 1 | – | 39 (36%) | 3 |
| 9 Olivier Giroud F | 7.0 | 14' | 1 | – | 1 | 2 (2%) | – |
| 17 Ngal'ayel Mukau M | 6.9 | 71' | – | – | – | 27 (23%) | 2 |
| 27 Félix Correia M | 6.9 | 71' | – | – | – | 38 (31%) | 3 |
| 22 Tiago Santos D | 6.7 | 8' | – | – | – | 6 (5%) | – |
| 28 Gaëtan Perrin F | 6.7 | 19' | – | – | – | 10 (9%) | – |
| 24 Calvin Verdonk D | 6.6 | 14' | – | – | – | 11 (9%) | – |
| 8 Ethan Mbappé M | 6.6 | 19' | – | – | 1 | 14 (11%) | – |
| 10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson M | 6.2 | 90' | – | 1 | 3 | 50 (47%) | 1 |
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Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
C. Tengstedt
3 gls
T. Jørgensen
2 gls
Tiago Santos
2 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Toulouse vs Lille
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep 2026 | Toulouse | 0 - 1 | Lille |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Lille | 2 - 1 | Toulouse |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Toulouse | 1 - 2 | Lille |
Toulouse — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Le Havre | W | 3 - 2 |
| 12 Sep | A Lorient | D | 2 - 2 |
| 03 Sep | H Lille | L | 0 - 1 |
| 29 Aug | A Stade Brestois 29 | D | 2 - 2 |
| 22 Aug | H Lyon | L | 0 - 2 |
Lille — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Nice | L | 2 - 1 |
| 13 Sep | H Estac Troyes | W | 2 - 0 |
| 08 Sep | H Real Betis | L | 2 - 3 |
| 03 Sep | A Toulouse | W | 0 - 1 |
| 28 Aug | H Paris Saint Germain | D | 2 - 2 |
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Monaco
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 |
Lyon
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 |
Paris FC
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 |
Lille
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 |
Rennes
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 7 |
Angers
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |
Strasbourg
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |
Le Mans
|
5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 |
Auxerre
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 |
Stade Brestois 29
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |
Lorient
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 |
Toulouse
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 |
Nice
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |
Lens
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |
Estac Troyes
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 |
Marseille
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 |
Le Havre
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
Lille
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Bruno Genesio
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Ozer | G |
| 12 | T. Meunier | D |
| 3 | N. Ngoy | D |
| 23 | A. Mandi | D |
| 15 | R. Perraud | D |
| 6 | N. Bentaleb | M |
| 21 | B. Andre | M |
| 17 | N. Mukau | M |
| 10 | H. Haraldsson | M |
| 27 | F. Correia | M |
| 7 | M. Fernandez-Pardo | F |
Substitutes
| 16 | A. Bodart | G |
| 9 | O. Giroud | F |
| 4 | Alexsandro | D |
| 8 | E. Mbappe | M |
| 18 | C. Mbemba | D |
| 24 | C. Verdonk | D |
| 28 | G. Perrin | F |
| 22 | T. Santos | D |
| 32 | A. Bouaddi | M |
Toulouse
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Carles Martínez
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | G. Restes | G |
| 3 | M. McKenzie | D |
| 35 | S. Koumbassa | D |
| 2 | R. Nicolaisen | D |
| 19 | D. Sidibe | M |
| 23 | C. Casseres | M |
| 18 | P. Demba | M |
| 24 | D. Methalie | M |
| 15 | A. Donnum | F |
| 10 | Y. Gboho | F |
| 20 | Emersonn | F |
Substitutes
| 16 | K. Haug | G |
| 40 | N. Said Mchindra | G |
| 12 | W. Kamanzi | D |
| 4 | C. Cresswell | D |
| 77 | M. Sauer | M |
| 11 | S. Hidalgo | F |
| 13 | J. Russell-Rowe | F |
| 7 | J. Vignolo | F |
| 45 | A. Vossah | M |