Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 25

Post on X

Marseille

Away

Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

AI прогноза Marseille или равен

22%

29%

49%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Toulouse vs Marseille prediction: Sportiko gives Toulouse a 22% chance of winning, Marseille 49% and the draw 29%. Last updated 13 Jul 2026, 16:30.

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Нашият анализ

Marseille или равен

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Toulouse

WDLDL

Marseille

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings Toulouse · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash on March 7, 2026, Toulouse hosts Marseille in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Toulouse has shown solid home form, scoring an average of 1.8 goals per game at home this season, while their defense has been relatively tight, conceding only 1.2 goals per game. Marseille, on the other hand, boasts a potent attack, averaging 2.1 goals per game overall, but their away record has been inconsistent, with a mix of wins and losses. Key players to watch include Toulouse's top scorer, who has netted 12 goals this season, and Marseille's creative midfielder, leading the league in assists. This encounter could hinge on Toulouse's ability to contain Marseille’s attacking threats while exploiting any defensive lapses.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

22%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

49%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Marseille goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	14	17	11	5	1
1	10	13	8	3	1
2	4	5	3	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Toulouse goals · most likely 0–1 (17.1%)

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Players in form

Toulouse

No scorer data.

Marseille

M. Greenwood 16 gls

P. Aubameyang 10 gls

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Head to Head: Toulouse vs Marseille

0 Toulouse Wins

2 Draws

1 Marseille Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Mar 2026	Marseille	2 - 2	Toulouse
29 Nov 2025	Marseille	2 - 2	Toulouse
06 Apr 2025	Marseille	3 - 2	Toulouse

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Toulouse — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Le Havre	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	A Lorient	D	2 - 2
03 Sep	H Lille	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Stade Brestois 29	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	H Lyon	L	0 - 2

Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 2
17 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	A Rennes	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Paris FC	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Monaco	L	2 - 0

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	74	29	+45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	66	35	+31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	52	37	+15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	53	40	+13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	63	45	+18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	59	50	+9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	60	54	+6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	58	47	+11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	48	51	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	47	46	+1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	47	50	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	43	55	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	29	48	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	32	44	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	34	44	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	37	60	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	29	52	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	32	76	-44	17

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.