Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction
Napoli vs AC Milan prediction: Sportiko gives Napoli a 38% chance of winning, AC Milan 39% and the draw 23%. Last updated 25 Jul 2026, 05:45.
Match Report
Napoli edged AC Milan 1–0 in a tight Serie A encounter at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, with the decisive moment arriving late in the second half. The opening 45 minutes produced little in the way of clear-cut chances, with both sides cancelling each other out in a cautious, well-organised contest.
The game's only goal came in the 79th minute, settling what had been a closely fought affair. Milan had actually carried the greater statistical threat across the 90 minutes, holding 53% possession and registering ten total shots to Napoli's seven, with an expected goals figure of 0.80 compared to the hosts' 0.60. However, Napoli's solitary shot on target proved to be the one that mattered. A flurry of substitutions from both benches in the final quarter shaped the closing stages, with Kevin De Bruyne introduced for Milan at the 85th minute unable to alter the outcome.
Our pre-match AI model had rated an AC Milan win as the most likely result at 39%, a call that ultimately went unsettled. The victory keeps Napoli's Serie A campaign on track, while Milan will rue a performance that deserved more on the numbers.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Napoli
Match Stats
Napoli
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68 Stanislav Lobotka M | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 57 (56%) | – |
| 21 Matteo Politano F | 7.5 | 16' | 1 | – | 1 | 5 (5%) | – |
| 5 Juan Jesus D | 7.2 | 85' | – | – | – | 67 (64%) | 2 |
| 99 Frank Anguissa M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 46 (43%) | 1 |
| 11 Kevin De Bruyne F | 7.0 | 85' | – | – | – | 40 (32%) | – |
| 17 Mathías Olivera D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 75 (71%) | – |
| 4 Alessandro Buongiorno D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 59 (55%) | 1 |
| 37 Leonardo Spinazzola M | 6.9 | 74' | – | – | 1 | 36 (32%) | 2 |
| 3 Miguel Gutiérrez M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 57 (50%) | – |
| 27 Alisson Santos F | 6.7 | 20' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
| 23 Giovane F | 6.6 | 70' | – | – | 1 | 13 (7%) | 1 |
| 31 Sam Beukema D | 6.6 | 11' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 20 Eljif Elmas M | 6.5 | 11' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 8 Scott McTominay F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 28 (24%) | – |
| 32 Vanja Milinković-Savić G | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (23%) | – |
AC Milan
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mike Maignan G | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 42 (34%) | – |
| 14 Luka Modrić M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 56 (48%) | – |
| 33 Davide Bartesaghi M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (26%) | – |
| 5 Koni De Winter D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 69 (67%) | 2 |
| 56 Alexis Saelemaekers M | 6.9 | 62' | – | – | – | 28 (24%) | 3 |
| 12 Adrien Rabiot M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 41 (33%) | 2 |
| 9 Niclas Füllkrug F | 6.7 | 63' | – | – | – | 19 (13%) | – |
| 8 Ruben Loftus-Cheek M | 6.7 | 8' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 23 Fikayo Tomori D | 6.6 | 82' | – | – | – | 36 (35%) | – |
| 7 Santiago Giménez F | 6.5 | 27' | – | – | 1 | 4 (3%) | – |
| 19 Youssouf Fofana M | 6.5 | 82' | – | – | 1 | 28 (18%) | 1 |
| 24 Zachary Athekame D | 6.5 | 28' | – | – | 1 | 13 (10%) | 2 |
| 11 Christian Pulišić M | 6.3 | 16' | – | – | – | 8 (5%) | – |
| 10 Rafael Leão F | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | 1 | 7 (5%) | – |
| 31 Strahinja Pavlović D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 54 (51%) | 1 |
| 18 Christopher Nkunku F | 6.3 | 74' | – | – | 1 | 23 (19%) | – |
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Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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No scorer data.
Diego Moreira
3 gls
A. Rabiot
2 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Napoli vs AC Milan
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2025 | AC Milan | 2 - 1 | Napoli |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Napoli | 2 - 1 | AC Milan |
| 29 Oct 2024 | AC Milan | 0 - 2 | Napoli |
Napoli — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Fiorentina | D | 1 - 1 |
| 13 Sep | H Bologna | W | 1 - 0 |
| 09 Sep | H Arsenal | L | 0 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | A Inter | L | 3 - 2 |
| 30 Aug | H Como | L | 1 - 2 |
AC Milan — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Lecce | W | 3 - 0 |
| 16 Sep | H Benfica | L | 0 - 2 |
| 12 Sep | A Lazio | D | 2 - 2 |
| 06 Sep | A Juventus | D | 1 - 1 |
| 28 Aug | H Venezia | W | 2 - 0 |
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AS Roma
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 |
Inter
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 |
Lazio
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 |
Cagliari
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 |
AC Milan
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 11 |
| 6 |
Frosinone
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 7 |
Juventus
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 |
Como
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 |
Napoli
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |
Sassuolo
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 |
Atalanta
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 |
Lecce
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 13 |
Udinese
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 |
Torino
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 |
Parma
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 |
Monza
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 |
Fiorentina
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 |
Bologna
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 |
Genoa
|
5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 |
Venezia
|
5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 |
AC Milan
Formation: 3-5-2
Coach: Massimiliano Allegri
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | M. Maignan | G |
| 23 | F. Tomori | D |
| 5 | K. De Winter | D |
| 31 | S. Pavlovic | D |
| 56 | A. Saelemaekers | M |
| 19 | Y. Fofana | M |
| 14 | L. Modric | M |
| 12 | A. Rabiot | M |
| 33 | D. Bartesaghi | M |
| 9 | N. Fullkrug | F |
| 18 | C. Nkunku | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | P. Terracciano | G |
| 96 | L. Torriani | G |
| 8 | R. Loftus-Cheek | M |
| 2 | P. Estupinan | D |
| 4 | S. Ricci | M |
| 24 | Z. Athekame | D |
| 11 | C. Pulisic | M |
| 10 | R. Leao | F |
| 7 | S. Gimenez | F |
| 30 | A. Jashari | M |
| 27 | D. Odogu | D |
Napoli
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Antonio Conte
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | V. Milinkovic-Savic | G |
| 5 | Juan Jesus | D |
| 4 | A. Buongiorno | D |
| 17 | M. Olivera | D |
| 3 | M. Gutierrez | M |
| 99 | F. Anguissa | M |
| 68 | S. Lobotka | M |
| 37 | L. Spinazzola | M |
| 11 | K. De Bruyne | F |
| 8 | S. McTominay | F |
| 23 | Giovane | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | A. Meret | G |
| 14 | N. Contini | G |
| 21 | M. Politano | F |
| 30 | P. Mazzocchi | D |
| 20 | E. Elmas | M |
| 31 | S. Beukema | D |
| 6 | B. Gilmour | M |
| 27 | Alisson Santos | F |