Athletic Club vs Valencia Prediction
Athletic Club vs Valencia prediction: Sportiko gives Athletic Club a 41% chance of winning, Valencia 32% and the draw 27%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Athletic Club dominated possession with 55% of the ball and forced 13 corner kicks at San Mamés, but Valencia proved more clinical on the night. The first half ended goalless despite Aymeric Laporte picking up an early booking and subsequently being withdrawn at the interval, while Nico Williams also departed before the break through substitution.
The second half turned fractious, with yellow cards shown to Eray Cömert, Alejandro Rego, and Pepelu in quick succession. A flurry of changes from both sides reshaped the contest around the hour mark, and it was Valencia who capitalised when Umar Sadiq broke the deadlock with a 72nd-minute finish, converting what proved to be the decisive moment of the match. Sadiq himself was cautioned late on, but the damage was already done.
Athletic Club's 14 total shots and superior expected goals figure of 0.93 against Valencia's 1.19 tell the story of a home side that created volume without reward. Our pre-match AI model had favoured an Athletic Club win at 41%, a call that ultimately did not materialise as Valencia held firm for all three points.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Athletic Club
Match Stats
Athletic Club
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Unai Simón G | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (22%) | – |
| 10 Nico Williams M | 7.0 | 36' | – | – | 1 | 12 (8%) | – |
| 17 Yuri Berchiche D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 51 (43%) | 2 |
| 11 Gorka Guruzeta F | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 17 (12%) | 4 |
| 14 Aymeric Laporte D | 6.9 | 45' | – | – | – | 26 (23%) | 2 |
| 30 Alejandro Rego M | 6.9 | 71' | – | – | – | 18 (17%) | 1 |
| 18 Mikel Jauregizar M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (36%) | 1 |
| 8 Oihan Sancet M | 6.9 | 65' | – | – | 1 | 16 (9%) | 3 |
| 23 Robert Navarro M | 6.9 | 70' | – | – | 2 | 17 (14%) | 3 |
| 2 Andoni Gorosabel D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (29%) | 1 |
| 9 Iñaki Williams F | 6.7 | 54' | – | – | 1 | 16 (10%) | 1 |
| 3 Daniel Vivian D | 6.7 | 45' | – | – | – | 38 (36%) | 1 |
| 6 Mikel Vesga M | 6.7 | 19' | – | – | – | 15 (9%) | 1 |
| 5 Yeray Álvarez D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 59 (45%) | – |
| 7 Álex Berenguer F | 6.3 | 25' | – | – | – | 14 (12%) | – |
| 20 Unai Gómez M | 6.3 | 20' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | – |
Valencia
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Stole Dimitrievski G | 8.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 48 (26%) | – |
| 14 José Luis Gayà D | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (24%) | 6 |
| 24 Eray Cömert D | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 61 (57%) | 1 |
| 2 Guido Rodríguez M | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (35%) | 3 |
| 6 Umar Sadiq F | 7.3 | 20' | 1 | – | 2 | 4 (1%) | 1 |
| 20 Renzo Saravia D | 7.2 | 89' | – | – | – | 21 (16%) | 2 |
| 11 Luis Rioja M | 7.0 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 11 (9%) | – |
| 8 Javier Guerra M | 6.7 | 83' | – | – | 1 | 23 (18%) | 3 |
| 23 Filip Ugrinić M | 6.7 | 20' | – | – | – | 3 (1%) | 1 |
| 4 Unai Núñez D | 6.6 | 16' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 César Tárrega D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 45 (36%) | – |
| 17 Largie Ramazani F | 6.5 | 20' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 18 Pepelu M | 6.5 | 70' | – | – | – | 33 (25%) | 2 |
| 16 Diego López M | 6.2 | 70' | – | – | – | 24 (17%) | 1 |
| 9 Hugo Duro F | 5.9 | 70' | – | – | 2 | 14 (13%) | – |
| 21 Jesús Vázquez D | — | 1' | – | – | – | – | – |
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Expected goals (xG)
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Athletic Club vs Valencia
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2025 | Valencia | 2 - 0 | Athletic Club |
| 18 May 2025 | Valencia | 0 - 1 | Athletic Club |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Athletic Club | 1 - 0 | Valencia |
Athletic Club — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Alaves | D | 0 - 0 |
| 12 Sep | H Elche | D | 1 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | H Atletico Madrid | W | 3 - 0 |
| 30 Aug | A Celta Vigo | W | 0 - 2 |
| 27 Aug | A Barcelona | L | 2 - 0 |
Valencia — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Real Sociedad | L | 2 - 3 |
| 15 Sep | A Alaves | W | 0 - 1 |
| 11 Sep | A Sevilla | L | 1 - 0 |
| 06 Sep | H Barcelona | L | 0 - 5 |
| 30 Aug | A Deportivo La Coruna | L | 3 - 1 |
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 |
Atletico Madrid
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 |
Real Betis
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 |
Real Madrid
|
7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 |
Sevilla
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |
Alaves
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 |
Real Sociedad
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 |
Villarreal
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 |
Athletic Club
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |
Getafe
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 |
Osasuna
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |
Celta Vigo
|
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 |
Espanyol
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |
Racing Santander
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 |
Levante
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 |
Elche
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 |
Valencia
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 |
Malaga
|
7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
Athletic Club
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Ernesto Valverde
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. Simon | G |
| 2 | A. Gorosabel | D |
| 5 | Y. Alvarez | D |
| 14 | A. Laporte | D |
| 17 | Y. Berchiche | D |
| 18 | M. Jauregizar | M |
| 30 | A. Rego | M |
| 23 | R. Navarro | M |
| 8 | O. Sancet | M |
| 10 | N. Williams | M |
| 11 | G. Guruzeta | F |
Substitutes
| 27 | A. Padilla | G |
| 15 | I. Lekue | D |
| 9 | I. Williams | F |
| 7 | A. Berenguer | F |
| 3 | D. Vivian | D |
| 12 | J. Areso | D |
| 4 | A. Paredes | D |
| 22 | N. Serrano | F |
| 20 | U. Gomez | M |
| 6 | M. Vesga | M |
| 25 | Izeta | F |
| 19 | A. Boiro | D |
Valencia
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Carlos Corberan
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. Dimitrievski | G |
| 20 | Renzo Saravia | D |
| 5 | C. Tarrega | D |
| 24 | E. Comert | D |
| 14 | J. Gaya | D |
| 18 | Pepelu | M |
| 2 | G. Rodriguez | M |
| 16 | D. Lopez | M |
| 8 | J. Guerra | M |
| 11 | L. Rioja | M |
| 9 | H. Duro | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | C. Rivero | G |
| 25 | J. Agirrezabala | G |
| 22 | B. Santamaria | M |
| 4 | U. Nunez | D |
| 6 | U. Sadiq | F |
| 7 | A. Danjuma | F |
| 19 | D. Raba | F |
| 23 | F. Ugrinic | M |
| 17 | L. Ramazani | F |
| 10 | A. Almeida | M |
| 21 | J. Vazquez | D |
| 26 | Rubo | D |