Ilves vs HNK Rijeka Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

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Ilves

Home

1 : 1

HT 0 - 0

1st leg 0-1 · Aggregate 1-2

HNK Rijeka

Away

AI прогноза Труден успех или равенство за HNK Rijeka

21%

27%

53%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Ilves vs HNK Rijeka prediction: Sportiko gives Ilves a 21% chance of winning, HNK Rijeka 53% and the draw 27%. Last updated 13 Aug 2026, 17:52.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
1st Half Over 0.5 71%

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Match Report

Ilves and HNK Rijeka played out a 1–1 draw in their UEFA Europa Conference League third qualifying round first leg in Tampere, with both goals arriving in a lively seven-minute spell midway through the second half. The opening 59 minutes produced little in the way of clear-cut chances, with the hosts enjoying slightly more of the ball but neither side able to break the deadlock before the interval.

Rijeka took the lead on 64 minutes through S. Baranov, and although our pre-match AI model had rated a Rijeka win as the most likely outcome at 53%, the Croatian side could not hold onto their advantage. Ilves responded almost immediately, with Justas Lasickas equalising on 70 minutes — though the Finnish forward was substituted just a minute later, presumably through injury. Both managers turned to their benches heavily in the closing stages as the tempo dropped.

The draw leaves the tie finely balanced heading into the second leg. Rijeka's four corner kicks to Ilves' one and a marginally superior shots record suggest the visitors carried a slight edge in threat, despite the home side's possession advantage.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

⇄ S. Baranov

59' ⇄

S. Baranov assist: T. Hytönen

64' ⚽ 1–0

Y. Raap

67' ⇄

⚽ 1–1 70'

Justas Lasickas assist: Ante Majstorović

⇄ 71'

Justas Lasickas ⇄ Amer Gojak

A. Popovitch

81' ⇄

V. Kumpu

81' ⇄

T. Hytönen ⇄ R. Riski

81' ⇄

⇄ 84'

Jakov Puljić ⇄ Ivan Ćubelić

▮ 87'

Mladen Devetak Yellow Card

⇄ 90'

Daniel Adu-Adjei ⇄ Ante Matej Jurić

FT 1–1

Ilves

Match Stats

HNK Rijeka

45% Ball Possession 55%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

4 Shots on Goal 5

2 Shots off Goal 6

1 Blocked Shots 2

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

4 Corner Kicks 1

0 Offsides 2

12 Fouls 8

0 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Отключи пълния AI анализ за Ilves vs HNK Rijeka

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Confidence Medium (53%)

At a glance

Нашият анализ

Труден успех или равенство за HNK Rijeka

Most likely score

1:1 · 13%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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Ilves

WWWLL

HNK Rijeka

WWDWD

Last 1 meetings Ilves · 0W 0D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

21%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

53%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

HNK Rijeka goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	10	10	5	2	1
1	5	13	10	6	2	1
2	3	6	5	3	1
3	1	2	2	1
4
5

↑ Ilves goals · most likely 1–1 (13.0%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

53%

Draw

27%

Home Win

21%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

53%

Draw

27%

Home Win

21%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

71% Away (No Draw) 29% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

29% Away Win by 2+ 8% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals 21% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	9.9%	9.7%	5.5%	2.3%
1	5.3%	13.0%	9.8%	5.6%	2.4%
2	3.4%	5.8%	5.0%	2.8%	1.2%
3	1.2%	2.0%	1.7%	0.9%	0.4%
4	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Ilves	Draw	HNK Rijeka
Ilves	11.3%	3.6%	2.0%
Draw	8.9%	16.8%	16.1%
HNK Rijeka	1.6%	4.7%	35.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

50%

1.5

50%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Ilves vs HNK Rijeka

0 Ilves Wins

0 Draws

1 HNK Rijeka Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
06 Aug 2026	HNK Rijeka	1 - 0	Ilves

Ilves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Turku PS	W	0 - 3
12 Sep	H Lahti	W	3 - 1
08 Sep	H FF Jaro	W	2 - 0
31 Aug	H HJK Helsinki	L	1 - 2
22 Aug	H VPS	L	0 - 1

HNK Rijeka — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H HNK Hajduk Split	W	3 - 0
16 Sep	A Vrbovec	W	0 - 6
12 Sep	A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	H NK Osijek	W	4 - 1
31 Aug	A HNK Gorica	D	0 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

HNK Rijeka

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Matjaz Kek

99 Todorović

34 Devetak

5 Barco

45 Majstorović

22 Oreč

6 Pavić

26 Dantas

4 Janković

21 Puljić

23 Lasickas

18 Adu-Adjei

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
99	Aleksa Todorović	G
22	Ante Oreč	D
45	Ante Majstorović	D
5	Alfonso Barco	M
34	Mladen Devetak	D
26	Tiago Dantas	M
6	Branko Pavić	M
23	Justas Lasickas	D
21	Jakov Puljić	F
4	Niko Janković	M
18	Daniel Adu-Adjei	F

Substitutes

1	Vito Kovač	G
13	Igor Vekič	G
3	Moreno Živković	D
51	Anel Husić	D
91	Noel Bodetić	D
8	Ivan Ćubelić	M
10	Toni Fruk	M
11	Gabriel Rukavina	M
14	Amer Gojak	M
15	Goran Grulović	F
37	Cherno Saho	F
77	Ante Matej Jurić	F

Ilves

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Joni Lehtonen

12 Krkalić

3 Rale

24 Kumpu

5 Väisänen

4 Pettersson

6 Raap

14 Popovitch

22 Multala

25 Suvanne

9 Hytönen

30 Kanga

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Faris Krkalić	G
4	Oliver Pettersson	D
5	Sauli Väisänen	D
24	Ville Kumpu	D
3	Matias Rale	D
22	Oskari Multala	M
14	Anton Popovitch	M
6	Yiandro Raap	D
30	Jardell Kanga	M
9	Teemu Hytönen	F
25	Sebastian Suvanne	D

Substitutes

17	Stanislav Baranov	M
33	Yacouba Sacko	M
1	Otso Virtanen	G
16	Tatu Miettunen	D
19	Abdoul Goudouss Bamba	D
8	Maksim Stjopin	M
13	Kalle Wallius	M
15	Lauri Ala-Myllymäki	M
28	Jesse Kilo	M
11	Hamidou Coulibaly	F
10	Roope Riski	F
45	Elias Tamminen	F