Puebla vs Toluca Prediction
Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla
AI прогноза
Труден успех или равенство за Toluca
19%
24%
57%
Победа за домакина
Равенство
Победа на гостите
Puebla vs Toluca prediction: Sportiko gives Puebla a 19% chance of winning, Toluca 57% and the draw 24%. Last updated 16 Sep 2026, 02:59.
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Timeline
⇄
45'
Franco Romero
⇄ Víctor Guzmán
HT 0–0
Ignacio Maestro Puch
Yellow Card
57'
▮
⇄
59'
Everardo López
⇄ Helinho
⇄
59'
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
⇄ Jorge Díaz
⚽
0–1
69'
Jose Pachuca
Own Goal
Carlos Baltazar
⇄ Heriberto Jurado
72'
⇄
Brayan Garnica
⇄ Omar Moreno
75'
⇄
⇄
77'
Federico Viñas
⇄ Luan
▮
90'
Bruno Méndez
Yellow Card
Mathías Tomás
Card upgrade confirmed
90'
🖵
Fernando Monarrez
⇄ Óscar Villa
90+4'
⇄
Jose Pachuca
⇄ Iker Moreno
90+4'
⇄
Alejandro Organista
⇄ Alberto Herrera
90+4'
⇄
⇄
90+6'
Paulinho
⇄ Oswaldo Virgen
FT 0–1
Puebla
Match Stats
Toluca
44%
Ball Possession
56%
13
Total Shots
11
2
Shots on Goal
3
4
Shots off Goal
4
7
Blocked Shots
4
5
Shots insidebox
5
8
Shots outsidebox
6
6
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
3
7
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
328
Total passes
434
260
Passes accurate
374
14
Free Kicks
7
Puebla
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Juan Pablo Vargas D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 35 (27%) | 1 |
| 7 Fernando Monarrez D | 6.8 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 31 (24%) | 1 |
| 5 Facundo Almada D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 27 (20%) | 2 |
| 10 Mathías Tomás M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 5 | 41 (33%) | – |
| 21 Sergio Sanabria M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 37 (32%) | 2 |
| 27 Brayan Garnica M | 6.5 | 75' | – | – | – | 15 (13%) | 3 |
| 24 Alejandro Organista M | 6.4 | 94' | – | – | – | 50 (43%) | 2 |
| 28 Daniel Gutierrez G | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 23 (12%) | – |
| 22 Carlos Baltazar M | 6.3 | 72' | – | – | 1 | 16 (12%) | 2 |
| 19 Ignacio Maestro Puch F | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 12 (10%) | – |
| 25 Heriberto Jurado F | 6.1 | 18' | – | – | – | 9 (6%) | – |
| 8 Omar Moreno F | 6.0 | 15' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | – |
| 20 Jose Pachuca D | 5.9 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 26 (24%) | 4 |
Toluca
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Federico Pereira D | 8.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 63 (57%) | 3 |
| 7 Víctor Guzmán M | 7.6 | 44' | – | – | 1 | 21 (18%) | – |
| 22 Luis García G | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 21 (16%) | – |
| 2 Diego Barbosa D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (27%) | 5 |
| 5 Franco Romero M | 7.2 | 46' | – | – | – | 21 (20%) | 1 |
| 13 Luan D | 7.1 | 13' | – | – | – | 7 (7%) | – |
| 4 Bruno Méndez D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 58 (54%) | – |
| 11 Helinho F | 7.0 | 31' | – | – | 1 | 12 (9%) | – |
| 20 Jesús Gallardo M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (23%) | 4 |
| 25 Everardo López D | 6.9 | 59' | – | – | – | 44 (37%) | 3 |
| 8 Nicolás Castro M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 57 (51%) | 3 |
| 10 Jesús Ricardo Angulo M | 6.8 | 59' | – | – | – | 19 (17%) | 1 |
| 29 Jorge Díaz M | 6.7 | 31' | – | – | – | 8 (6%) | – |
| 26 Paulinho F | 6.5 | 96' | – | – | 4 | 20 (14%) | 3 |
| 16 Federico Viñas M | 6.4 | 77' | – | – | 2 | 23 (18%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Medium (57%)
At a glance
Нашият анализ
Труден успех или равенство за Toluca
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Puebla
DLWLW
Toluca
LWWWW
Last 2 meetings
Puebla · 0W 1D 1L
Match summary
In the Liga MX clash between Puebla and Toluca, both teams will be looking to secure crucial points. Puebla currently holds a slight edge in recent form, with a more robust home record compared to Toluca's away performances. Key players to watch include Puebla's top scorer, whose finishing ability could exploit Toluca's defensive vulnerabilities, while Toluca will rely on their playmaker to create chances. The match promises to be closely contested, as both teams seek to improve their standings in the league.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
19%
10%
Draw
24%
45%
Away
57%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Puebla
E. Mustre
3 gls
Toluca
F. Viñas
4 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Puebla vs Toluca
0
Puebla Wins
1
Draws
1
Toluca Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Puebla | 0 - 0 | Toluca |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Toluca | 3 - 1 | Puebla |
Puebla — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Atlante FC | D | 1 - 1 |
| 16 Sep | H Toluca | L | 0 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | A Necaxa | W | 0 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | A Club America | L | 2 - 0 |
| 23 Aug | H Santos Laguna | W | 3 - 2 |
Toluca — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep | H Santos Laguna | L | 2 - 3 |
| 16 Sep | A Puebla | W | 0 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | H Atlas | W | 5 - 2 |
| 07 Sep | H Monterrey | W | 2 - 0 |
| 03 Sep | H Leon | W | 2 - 0 |
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Toluca
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 |
Guadalajara Chivas
|
9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 |
Club America
|
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |
Cruz Azul
|
9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 15 |
| 5 |
Club Queretaro
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 |
Club Tijuana
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 |
Leon
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 |
Puebla
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 |
Atlas
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 |
Monterrey
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 |
| 11 |
CF Pachuca
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 12 |
| 12 |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |
Atletico San Luis
|
9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 |
Atlante FC
|
9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 |
Necaxa
|
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 |
Tigres UANL
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 |
Santos Laguna
|
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |
FC Juarez
|
9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 |
Toluca
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: A. Mohamed
22
García
25
López
6
Pereira
4
Méndez
2
Barbosa
8
Castro
5
Romero
20
Gallardo
10
Angulo
16
Viñas
26
Paulinho
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | L. García | G |
| 2 | D. Barbosa | D |
| 4 | B. Méndez | D |
| 6 | F. Pereira | D |
| 25 | E. López | D |
| 5 | F. Romero | M |
| 8 | N. Castro | M |
| 16 | F. Viñas | M |
| 10 | J. Angulo | M |
| 20 | J. Gallardo | M |
| 26 | Paulinho | F |
Substitutes
| 23 | O. Virgen | F |
| 7 | V. Guzmán | M |
| 15 | P. Pérez | M |
| 11 | Helinho | F |
| 3 | A. Briseño | D |
| 184 | S. Aceves | M |
| 24 | F. Arce | M |
| 12 | R. Beltrán | G |
| 29 | J. Díaz | M |
| 13 | Luan | D |
Puebla
Formation: 4-1-4-1
Coach: Horacio Melgarejo
28
Gutiérrez
7
Monárrez
4
Vargas
5
Almada
20
Pachuca
21
Sanabria
22
Baltazar
24
Organista
10
Tomás
27
Garnica
19
Puch
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | R. Gutiérrez | G |
| 20 | J. Pachuca | D |
| 5 | F. Almada | D |
| 4 | J. Vargas | D |
| 7 | F. Monárrez | D |
| 21 | S. Sanabria | M |
| 27 | B. Garnica | M |
| 10 | M. Tomás | M |
| 24 | A. Organista | M |
| 22 | C. Baltazar | M |
| 19 | I. Maestro Puch | F |
Substitutes
| 33 | J. Rodríguez | G |
| 2 | Á. Leyva | D |
| 15 | Ó. Villa | D |
| 12 | I. Moreno | M |
| 8 | O. Moreno | F |
| 16 | A. Ramírez | M |
| 25 | H. Jurado | F |
| 14 | E. Armenta | M |
| 3 | A. Herrera | M |
| 34 | Lucas Camilo | M |