Marseille vs Monaco Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 24

13 Mar 2027, 16:00

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Monaco

Away

AI прогноза Monaco to win or draw

23%

68%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Marseille vs Monaco prediction: Sportiko gives Marseille a 9% chance of winning, Monaco 68% and the draw 23%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

0:2 · 15.3%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Marseille

LLLLL

Monaco

WDWWW

Last 3 meetings Marseille · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Marseille faces Monaco, both teams vying for crucial points in the race for European qualification. Marseille has shown strong defensive capabilities this season, averaging 1.2 goals conceded per match, while Monaco boasts an aggressive attack, scoring an average of 1.8 goals per game. The matchup is likely to hinge on Marseille's ability to contain Monaco's pacey forwards, especially given their recent form. Additionally, set pieces could play a critical role, as both teams have capitalized on dead-ball situations effectively. The outcome may depend on which side can impose their style and convert chances into goals.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

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Independent

Home

10%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

68%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Monaco goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	15	15	10	5	2
1	4	10	9	6	3	1
2	1	3	3	2	1
3		1
4
5

↑ Marseille goals · most likely 0–2 (15.3%)

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Players in form

Marseille

A. Gouiri 4 gls

Monaco

Paris Josua Brunner 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

68%

Draw

23%

Home Win

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

68%

Draw

23%

Home Win

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

88% Away (No Draw) 12% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

42% Away Win by 2+ 2% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

68% Away Scores More 23% Equal Goals 9% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.5%	14.8%	15.3%	9.8%	4.7%
1	3.6%	10.5%	8.9%	5.7%	2.7%
2	1.4%	2.7%	2.6%	1.7%	0.8%
3	0.3%	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%	0.2%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

35%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

33%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Marseille	Draw	Monaco
Marseille	5.0%	2.8%	2.0%
Draw	4.2%	15.5%	22.5%
Monaco	0.5%	2.7%	44.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

56%

32%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

77%

0.5

23%

97%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

43%

1.5

57%

71%

2.5

29%

88%

3.5

12%

Away Exact Goals

15%

29%

27%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

79%

1.5

21%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Marseille vs Monaco

1 Marseille Wins

0 Draws

2 Monaco Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
30 Aug 2026	Monaco	2 - 0	Marseille
05 Apr 2026	Monaco	2 - 1	Marseille
14 Dec 2025	Marseille	1 - 0	Monaco

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Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 2
17 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	A Rennes	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Paris FC	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Monaco	L	2 - 0

Monaco — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Lens	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Strasbourg	D	1 - 1
04 Sep	A Paris Saint Germain	W	1 - 2
30 Aug	H Marseille	W	2 - 0
27 Aug	H Gornik Zabrze	W	4 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.