Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 6

10 Oct 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Toulouse

Away

Stade Louis-II, Monaco

AI прогноза Monaco печели

85%

13%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Monaco vs Toulouse prediction: Sportiko gives Monaco a 85% chance of winning, Toulouse 2% and the draw 13%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 19.8%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

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Monaco

WDWWW

Toulouse

WDLDL

Last 3 meetings Monaco · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

Monaco faces Toulouse in a Ligue 1 clash on October 10, 2026. Monaco has demonstrated strong attacking prowess this season, averaging 2.1 goals per match, while Toulouse has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. The matchup will likely revolve around Monaco's ability to capitalize on Toulouse's defensive frailties. Additionally, Monaco's midfield control, boasting an average possession of 60%, could dictate the tempo of the game. Expect a competitive encounter, with Monaco aiming to leverage their offensive strength against Toulouse's inconsistent defense.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

85%

45%

Draw

13%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toulouse goals →

	0	1	2
0	7	1
1	15	5	1
2	20	6	1
3	17	5	1
4	11	3
5	5	2

↑ Monaco goals · most likely 2–0 (19.8%)

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Players in form

Monaco

Paris Josua Brunner 4 gls

Toulouse

C. Tengstedt 3 gls

T. Jørgensen 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

85%

Draw

13%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

23%

1.5

77%

48%

2.5

52%

72%

3.5

28%

88%

4.5

12%

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

85%

Draw

13%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

97% Home (No Draw) 3% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

63% Home Win by 2+ 0% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

85% Home Scores More 13% Equal Goals 2% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

23%

1.5

77%

48%

2.5

52%

72%

3.5

28%

88%

4.5

12%

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

25%

23%

17%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.8%	1.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
1	15.0%	5.3%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
2	19.8%	5.9%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	16.7%	5.0%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
4	10.5%	3.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

34%

23%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

32%

26%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Monaco	Draw	Toulouse
Monaco	61.2%	1.1%	0.1%
Draw	23.2%	9.3%	1.2%
Toulouse	1.4%	1.2%	1.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

79%

3.5

21%

Home Exact Goals

21%

27%

22%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Monaco vs Toulouse

1 Monaco Wins

2 Draws

0 Toulouse Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Apr 2026	Toulouse	2 - 2	Monaco
25 Oct 2025	Monaco	1 - 0	Toulouse
07 Mar 2025	Toulouse	1 - 1	Monaco

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Monaco — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Lens	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Strasbourg	D	1 - 1
04 Sep	A Paris Saint Germain	W	1 - 2
30 Aug	H Marseille	W	2 - 0
27 Aug	H Gornik Zabrze	W	4 - 1

Toulouse — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Le Havre	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	A Lorient	D	2 - 2
03 Sep	H Lille	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Stade Brestois 29	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	H Lyon	L	0 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.