Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 22

20 Feb 2027, 14:30

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FSV Mainz 05

Away

AI прогноза Труден успех или равенство за Bayer Leverkusen

65%

23%

13%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: Sportiko gives Bayer Leverkusen a 65% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 13% and the draw 23%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 12.1%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

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Bayer Leverkusen

WWDWL

FSV Mainz 05

WLWDW

Last 3 meetings Bayer Leverkusen · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

Bayer Leverkusen enters this Bundesliga clash with a strong attacking record, averaging 2.5 goals per match this season. Their high pressing system has yielded a 65% possession rate, allowing them to control games effectively. FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, struggles defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match, which could be exploited by Leverkusen's dynamic forwards. Additionally, Leverkusen's home form has been solid, while Mainz has found it challenging to secure points on the road. Overall, Leverkusen's offensive prowess positions them as favorites in this matchup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

65%

45%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

13%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FSV Mainz 05 goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	3	2	1
1	10	11	4	1
2	12	10	4	1
3	8	7	3	1
4	4	4	1
5	2	1	1

↑ Bayer Leverkusen goals · most likely 2–0 (12.1%)

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Players in form

Bayer Leverkusen

P. Schick 4 gls

Christian Kofane 2 gls

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 4 gls

S. Becker 2 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

23%

Away Win

13%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

23%

Away Win

13%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

84% Home (No Draw) 16% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

41% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

65% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 13% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	3.4%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
1	10.4%	10.8%	3.9%	1.1%	0.2%
2	12.1%	10.0%	4.1%	1.1%	0.2%
3	8.4%	6.9%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%
4	4.4%	3.6%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

30%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen	43.2%	3.3%	0.9%
Draw	20.5%	13.9%	5.3%
FSV Mainz 05	2.6%	3.4%	7.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

39%

1.5

61%

67%

2.5

33%

86%

3.5

14%

Home Exact Goals

13%

27%

28%

19%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

44%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

69%

0.5

31%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05

1 Bayer Leverkusen Wins

2 Draws

0 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
28 Feb 2026	Bayer Leverkusen	1 - 1	FSV Mainz 05
18 Oct 2025	FSV Mainz 05	3 - 4	Bayer Leverkusen
17 May 2025	FSV Mainz 05	2 - 2	Bayer Leverkusen

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Bayer Leverkusen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H RB Leipzig	W	2 - 0
16 Sep	H Celje	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A FC Augsburg	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	H Union Berlin	W	4 - 0
29 Aug	A SV Elversberg	L	3 - 2

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 4
12 Sep	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
06 Sep	A Hamburger SV	W	0 - 5
29 Aug	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Krieschow	W	0 - 9

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.