FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction: Sportiko gives FSV Mainz 05 a 59% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 18% and the draw 23%. Last updated 29 Aug 2026, 15:26.
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Match Report
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 played out a goalless draw in their Bundesliga opener, a result that defied the balance of play across 90-plus minutes. Mainz dominated proceedings, enjoying 52% possession and registering a remarkable 22 shots to Paderborn's 10, yet could not find a way past the visiting defence despite generating 11 corner kicks.
The match's only real flashpoints came through the disciplinary record, with Santiago Castañeda picking up a yellow card before the break and Mattes Hansen following suit in the 72nd minute — the latter forced off shortly after through substitution. Both sides made multiple changes in the second half as the game grew increasingly frantic without reward. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Mainz win as the most likely outcome at 59%, and while the hosts did control large portions of the contest, they could not convert their dominance into goals.
Paderborn, for their part, offered little going forward — registering zero shots on target — but defended resolutely to claim a point on the opening day.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
FSV Mainz 05
Match Stats
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Danny da Costa D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | 5 | 47 (38%) | 3 |
| 10 Nadiem Amiri M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 49 (41%) | 1 |
| 31 Dominik Kohr D | 7.2 | 80' | – | – | 1 | 49 (44%) | 4 |
| 3 F. Gruber D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 48 (43%) | 3 |
| 27 Robin Zentner G | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (20%) | – |
| 6 Kaishu Sano M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 53 (52%) | 1 |
| 30 Silvan Widmer D | 6.8 | 17' | – | – | – | 8 (5%) | – |
| 48 Kacper Potulski D | 6.8 | 10' | – | – | – | 23 (21%) | – |
| 11 Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer F | 6.6 | 22' | – | – | 1 | 3 (2%) | 1 |
| 20 O. Ruoppi M | 6.5 | 22' | – | – | – | 9 (7%) | – |
| 19 Anthony Caci M | 6.5 | 73' | – | – | 2 | 37 (31%) | 3 |
| 9 Phillip Tietz F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 30 (21%) | – |
| 7 Jae-sung Lee M | 6.3 | 68' | – | – | 4 | 31 (25%) | – |
| 23 Sheraldo Becker F | 6.3 | 68' | – | – | – | 15 (13%) | – |
| 2 Phillipp Mwene M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 36 (25%) | 1 |
SC Paderborn 07
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nahuel Noll G | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 39 (31%) | – |
| 25 Tjark Lasse Scheller D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 59 (51%) | 3 |
| 21 Jano Ter-Horst D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 46 (41%) | 1 |
| 27 Steffen Tigges F | 6.8 | 23' | – | – | 2 | 4 (2%) | 1 |
| 30 Stefano Marino F | 6.7 | 67' | – | – | 1 | 22 (15%) | – |
| 22 Mattes Hansen D | 6.6 | 75' | – | – | – | 57 (51%) | 1 |
| 6 Tom Baack M | 6.5 | 15' | – | – | – | 7 (6%) | 1 |
| 5 Santiago Castañeda M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 52 (43%) | 3 |
| 23 Raphael Obermair M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 30 (24%) | 1 |
| 40 Gabriel Vidović F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 55 (48%) | – |
| 18 Marvin Pieringer F | 6.3 | 92' | – | – | 1 | 20 (16%) | 2 |
| 17 Laurin Curda M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 31 (23%) | 4 |
| 28 Laurin Ulrich M | 6.1 | 75' | – | – | 1 | 26 (22%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
P. Tietz
4 gls
S. Becker
2 gls
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Feb 2020 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 - 0 | SC Paderborn 07 |
| 05 Oct 2019 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1 - 2 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 31 Jan 2015 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 - 0 | SC Paderborn 07 |
FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 - 4 |
| 12 Sep | H Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 1 - 3 |
| 06 Sep | A Hamburger SV | W | 0 - 5 |
| 29 Aug | H SC Paderborn 07 | D | 0 - 0 |
| 23 Aug | A Krieschow | W | 0 - 9 |
SC Paderborn 07 — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H 1899 Hoffenheim | W | 3 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | A Borussia Dortmund | L | 3 - 0 |
| 05 Sep | H SC Freiburg | L | 0 - 1 |
| 29 Aug | A FSV Mainz 05 | D | 0 - 0 |
| 23 Aug | A Phönix Lübeck | W | 2 - 4 |
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 |
SC Freiburg
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 |
FC Augsburg
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |
FSV Mainz 05
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |
SV Elversberg
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |
Werder Bremen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |
RB Leipzig
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 |
FC Schalke 04
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 |
1. FC Köln
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 |
Hamburger SV
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 |
Union Berlin
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
FSV Mainz 05
Formation: 3-1-4-2
Coach: Emiliano Té
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | R. Zentner | G |
| 21 | D. da Costa | D |
| 3 | F. Gruber | D |
| 31 | D. Kohr | D |
| 6 | K. Sano | M |
| 19 | A. Caci | M |
| 7 | Lee Jae-Sung | M |
| 10 | N. Amiri | M |
| 2 | P. Mwene | M |
| 23 | S. Becker | F |
| 9 | P. Tietz | F |
Substitutes
| 24 | S. Kawasaki | M |
| 11 | R. Königsdörffer | F |
| 15 | L. Maloney | M |
| 47 | R. Nakuzola | D |
| 4 | S. Posch | D |
| 48 | K. Potulski | D |
| 20 | O. Ruoppi | M |
| 1 | A. Schwolow | G |
| 30 | S. Widmer | D |
SC Paderborn 07
Formation: 3-4-3
Coach: Emiliano Té
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | N. Noll | G |
| 21 | J. ter Horst | D |
| 25 | T. Scheller | D |
| 22 | M. Hansen | D |
| 17 | L. Curda | M |
| 28 | L. Ulrich | M |
| 5 | S. Castañeda | M |
| 23 | R. Obermair | M |
| 30 | S. Marino | F |
| 18 | M. Pieringer | F |
| 40 | G. Vidović | F |
Substitutes
| 6 | T. Baack | M |
| 7 | O. Batista Meier | M |
| 8 | L. Đurić | M |
| 29 | C. Lippmann | D |
| 1 | M. Schubert | G |
| 27 | S. Tigges | F |
| 38 | D. Zeitler | F |
| 24 | N. Mohr | M |