Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 22

31 Jan 2027, 16:00

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Real Madrid

Away

AI прогноза Real Madrid или равен

33%

30%

37%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Rayo Vallecano a 33% chance of winning, Real Madrid 37% and the draw 30%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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75% 73% 75% 72% 71%

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.4%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Rayo Vallecano

DWLWL

Real Madrid

LWWWL

Last 3 meetings Rayo Vallecano · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

Rayo Vallecano faces a challenging encounter against Real Madrid in this La Liga clash. Historically, Real Madrid has dominated this matchup, winning 13 of their last 15 meetings, showcasing their offensive prowess. Rayo Vallecano, while effective at home, has struggled against top-tier teams, conceding an average of 2.2 goals in their last five games against the top four in the league. Key players to watch include Real Madrid's Karim Benzema, who has been pivotal in their attacking strategy, and Rayo's Oscar Trejo, who can influence midfield control. The outcome will likely hinge on Rayo's defensive organization and their ability to exploit any gaps left by Madrid.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

33%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

37%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	9	7	3	1
1	8	14	8	4	1
2	6	8	5	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Rayo Vallecano goals · most likely 1–1 (14.4%)

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Players in form

Rayo Vallecano

Sergio Camello 7 gls

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 7 gls

J. Bellingham 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

37%

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

37%

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

53% Away (No Draw) 47% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

17% Away Win by 2+ 15% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Away Scores More 33% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.5%	8.7%	6.8%	3.0%	1.0%
1	8.0%	14.4%	8.4%	3.7%	1.2%
2	5.9%	7.8%	5.2%	2.3%	0.8%
3	2.4%	3.2%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.8%	1.0%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano	19.3%	4.1%	1.7%
Draw	12.7%	18.9%	12.7%
Real Madrid	2.0%	4.9%	23.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid

0 Rayo Vallecano Wins

1 Draws

2 Real Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
12 Sep 2026	Real Madrid	4 - 1	Rayo Vallecano
01 Feb 2026	Real Madrid	2 - 1	Rayo Vallecano
09 Nov 2025	Rayo Vallecano	0 - 0	Real Madrid

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Rayo Vallecano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Osasuna	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Espanyol	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 1
05 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A Barcelona	L	5 - 2

Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
12 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	W	4 - 1
08 Sep	H Inter	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.