Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 12

08 Nov 2026, 16:00

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Rayo Vallecano

Away

AI прогноза Rayo Vallecano или равен

33%

31%

36%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction: Sportiko gives Real Sociedad a 33% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano 36% and the draw 31%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.8%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Real Sociedad

WLLWD

Rayo Vallecano

DWLWL

Last 3 meetings Real Sociedad · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

Real Sociedad is set to face Rayo Vallecano in a La Liga clash. Sociedad has shown strong form at home, currently boasting an impressive record with a high expected goals (xG) differential, suggesting they create more quality chances than they concede. Rayo Vallecano, while competitive, has struggled against top-half teams, particularly in away fixtures, evidenced by their lower xG and defensive vulnerabilities. This match could hinge on Sociedad's ability to exploit Vallecano's weaknesses in defense, particularly through their creative midfield and pace on the wings. Expect a tactical battle, with Sociedad likely to dominate possession.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

33%

10%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

36%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Rayo Vallecano goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	10	7	3	1
1	9	15	8	3	1
2	6	8	5	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Real Sociedad goals · most likely 1–1 (14.8%)

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Players in form

Real Sociedad

L. Sučić 3 gls

Rayo Vallecano

Sergio Camello 7 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

36%

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

36%

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

53% Away (No Draw) 47% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

16% Away Win by 2+ 14% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

36% Away Scores More 33% Home Scores More 31% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.8%	9.6%	7.0%	2.9%	0.9%
1	8.9%	14.8%	8.1%	3.4%	1.0%
2	6.1%	7.6%	4.7%	2.0%	0.6%
3	2.4%	2.9%	1.8%	0.8%	0.2%
4	0.7%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Real Sociedad	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad	16.7%	3.5%	1.3%
Draw	14.6%	20.0%	12.5%
Rayo Vallecano	2.3%	5.4%	23.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

0 Real Sociedad Wins

2 Draws

1 Rayo Vallecano Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
26 Apr 2026	Rayo Vallecano	3 - 3	Real Sociedad
05 Oct 2025	Real Sociedad	0 - 1	Rayo Vallecano
16 Mar 2025	Rayo Vallecano	2 - 2	Real Sociedad

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Real Sociedad — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Valencia	W	2 - 3
17 Sep	H Bournemouth	L	1 - 2
13 Sep	H Atletico Madrid	L	0 - 3
07 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
03 Sep	H Celta Vigo	D	0 - 0

Rayo Vallecano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Osasuna	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Espanyol	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 1
05 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A Barcelona	L	5 - 2

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.