Arsenal vs Manchester United Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 16

19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Manchester United

Away

Emirates Stadium, London

AI прогноза Arsenal to win or draw

74%

19%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Arsenal vs Manchester United prediction: Sportiko gives Arsenal a 74% chance of winning, Manchester United 7% and the draw 19%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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74% 72% 72%

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 15%

Both teams to score

41%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

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Arsenal

LWWWW

Manchester United

DLLWD

Last 3 meetings Arsenal · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash between Arsenal and Manchester United, both teams will look to assert their dominance in a highly competitive fixture. Arsenal, known for their attacking prowess, has averaged 2.1 goals per game this season, while Manchester United's defense has conceded 1.5 goals per match. With Arsenal's midfield controlling possession at approximately 60%, they will aim to exploit any gaps in United's backline. Conversely, United's counter-attacking style, averaging 1.8 goals per game, could pose a significant threat if they can transition quickly. This match promises to be a tactical battle, with both teams vying for crucial points in the league standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

74%

45%

Draw

19%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Manchester United goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	2	1
1	12	9	2
2	15	9	3	1
3	11	7	2
4	7	4	1
5	3	2	1

↑ Arsenal goals · most likely 2–0 (15.0%)

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Players in form

Arsenal

B. Saka 3 gls

Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

19%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

69%

3.5

31%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

19%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

91% Home (No Draw) 9% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

50% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

74% Home Scores More 19% Equal Goals 7% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

69%

3.5

31%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

15%

25%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.8%	2.4%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%
1	12.1%	8.9%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%
2	15.0%	9.0%	2.7%	0.5%	0.1%
3	11.5%	6.9%	2.1%	0.4%	0.1%
4	6.6%	3.9%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

30%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Arsenal	Draw	Manchester United
Arsenal	51.1%	2.4%	0.5%
Draw	22.2%	12.0%	3.2%
Manchester United	2.3%	2.5%	3.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

83%

3.5

17%

Home Exact Goals

10%

24%

27%

21%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

55%

33%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Arsenal vs Manchester United

1 Arsenal Wins

1 Draws

1 Manchester United Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Jan 2026	Arsenal	2 - 3	Manchester United
17 Aug 2025	Manchester United	0 - 1	Arsenal
09 Mar 2025	Manchester United	1 - 1	Arsenal

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Arsenal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Brighton	L	3 - 0
15 Sep	A Ipswich	W	2 - 4
12 Sep	A Sunderland	W	0 - 2
09 Sep	A Napoli	W	0 - 1
06 Sep	H Chelsea	W	2 - 1

Manchester United — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Fulham	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	H Brighton	L	2 - 3
13 Sep	H Manchester City	L	0 - 1
10 Sep	H Sabah FA	W	4 - 0
06 Sep	A Everton	D	2 - 2

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.