Portugal vs Croatia Prediction

World Cup · Round of 32

Post on X

Croatia

Away

BMO Field, Toronto

AI прогноза Труден успех или равенство за Portugal

52%

30%

18%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Portugal vs Croatia prediction: Sportiko gives Portugal a 52% chance of winning, Croatia 18% and the draw 30%. Last updated 20 Jul 2026, 15:55.

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Match Report

Portugal edged past Croatia 2–1 in a dramatic World Cup last-32 tie that was decided in the final minutes of a tense encounter. The first half ended goalless despite Croatia enjoying the better of possession, and it was the Croatians who broke the deadlock early in the second period through Ivan Perišić on 53 minutes. Portugal's response was immediate and chaotic — Ronaldo had a goal ruled out for offside by VAR on 61 minutes before making four substitutions, and the veteran forward then converted a penalty on 68 minutes to level the scores.

The match remained finely balanced as Croatia saw a Petar Sučić effort disallowed for offside on 81 minutes, with the tie heading deep into stoppage time. Substitute Gonçalo Ramos settled it in the 90+4th minute, and Croatia's frustration was compounded when Joško Gvardiol had a late effort chalked off for offside in the 13th minute of added time.

Croatia's statistical dominance — 60% possession, nine corners and an expected goals figure of 2.18 to Portugal's 1.34 — ultimately counted for nothing. The pre-match AI model had rated a Portugal victory as the most likely outcome at 52%, a call that proved correct.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Rúben Dias Yellow Card

17' ▮

HT 0–0

⇄ 46'

Ante Budimir ⇄ Igor Matanović

⚽ 0–1 53'

Ivan Perišić

▮ 59'

Luka Modrić Yellow Card

Cristiano Ronaldo Goal Disallowed - offside

61' 🖵

Vitinha ⇄ Bernardo Silva

62' ⇄

Pedro Neto ⇄ Francisco Conceição

63' ⇄

Bruno Fernandes ⇄ Nélson Semedo

63' ⇄

João Cancelo ⇄ Gonçalo Ramos

63' ⇄

Cristiano Ronaldo Penalty

68' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 68'

Martin Baturina ⇄ Mario Pašalić

Cristiano Ronaldo ⇄ Rúben Neves

81' ⇄

🖵 81'

Petar Sučić Goal Disallowed - offside

⇄ 90+2'

Nikola Vlašić ⇄ Joško Gvardiol

Gonçalo Ramos assist: Rafael Leão

90+4' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 90+6'

Mateo Kovačić ⇄ Andrej Kramarić

▮ 90+8'

Ivan Perišić Yellow Card

🖵 90+13'

Joško Gvardiol Goal Disallowed - offside

FT 2–1

Portugal

Match Stats

Croatia

60% Ball Possession 40%

2.18 Expected Goals (xG) 1.34

15 Total Shots 14

3 Shots on Goal 6

8 Shots off Goal 6

4 Blocked Shots 2

10 Shots insidebox 11

5 Shots outsidebox 3

9 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 4

6 Fouls 12

1 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 2

576 Total passes 366

526 Passes accurate 311

91% Passes % 85%

-0.45 goals_prevented -0.45

Portugal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Gonçalo Ramos F	7.9	44'	1	–	2	8 (8%)	–
1 Diogo Costa G	7.7	107'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	–
25 Nuno Mendes D	7.7	107'	–	–	–	60 (53%)	2
3 Rúben Dias D	7.5	107'	–	–	–	94 (86%)	3
23 Vitinha M	7.2	62'	–	–	–	75 (70%)	2
7 Cristiano Ronaldo F	7.2	81'	1	–	1	22 (21%)	1
13 Renato Veiga D	7.0	107'	–	–	2	67 (65%)	–
15 João Neves M	7.0	107'	–	–	1	51 (47%)	5
20 João Cancelo D	6.7	63'	–	–	1	31 (27%)	4
2 Nélson Semedo D	6.7	44'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
21 Rúben Neves M	6.7	26'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
8 Bruno Fernandes M	6.6	63'	–	–	1	31 (28%)	1
17 Rafael Leão M	6.5	107'	–	1	2	52 (47%)	–
26 Francisco Conceição F	6.3	44'	–	–	1	9 (7%)	–
10 Bernardo Silva M	6.2	45'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
18 Pedro Neto M	6.2	63'	–	–	–	28 (26%)	1

Croatia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
14 Ivan Perišić D	7.9	107'	1	–	1	25 (22%)	3
8 Mateo Kovačić M	7.2	96'	–	–	3	52 (49%)	1
10 Luka Modrić M	6.9	107'	–	–	–	52 (45%)	3
6 Josip Šutalo D	6.6	107'	–	–	–	34 (27%)	2
1 Dominik Livaković G	6.5	107'	–	–	–	27 (26%)	–
15 Mario Pašalić M	6.5	39'	–	–	1	10 (7%)	1
17 Petar Sučić M	6.5	107'	–	–	1	39 (31%)	3
16 Martin Baturina M	6.5	68'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	–
11 Ante Budimir F	6.5	45'	–	–	2	1	–
2 Josip Stanišić D	6.3	107'	–	–	–	26 (22%)	1
9 Andrej Kramarić F	6.3	11'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
4 Joško Gvardiol D	6.2	15'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
3 Marin Pongračić D	6.2	107'	–	–	–	57 (47%)	1
13 Nikola Vlašić M	6.2	92'	–	–	1	15 (11%)	7
20 Igor Matanović F	6.2	62'	–	–	3	6 (6%)	1

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Confidence Medium (52%)

At a glance

Нашият анализ

Труден успех или равенство за Portugal

Most likely score

1:0 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

43%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

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Portugal

WLWDW

Croatia

LWWLL

Match summary

Portugal faces Croatia in a pivotal World Cup clash, both teams boasting strong tactical approaches. Portugal, with an attacking lineup featuring stars like Cristiano Ronaldo and Bernardo Silva, has averaged 2.1 goals per match in recent qualifiers, showcasing their offensive prowess. Croatia, known for their resilience and midfield control, has maintained a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.8 goals per match in their last 10 fixtures. The outcome will likely depend on Portugal's ability to break through Croatia's organized defense and control the midfield battle. Expect a tightly contested match with both sides vying for a place in the next round.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

52%

45%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

18%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Croatia goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	12	7	3	1
1	14	14	5	1
2	12	9	3	1
3	6	4	2
4	2	2	1
5	1

↑ Portugal goals · most likely 1–0 (14.1%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

30%

Away Win

18%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS No 43% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

30%

Away Win

18%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

74% Home (No Draw) 26% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS No 43% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

21%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.3%	6.7%	3.2%	0.8%	0.2%
1	14.1%	13.7%	4.7%	1.2%	0.2%
2	11.6%	8.9%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%
3	5.7%	4.4%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
4	2.1%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Portugal	Draw	Croatia
Portugal	32.0%	3.7%	0.9%
Draw	19.4%	20.3%	7.9%
Croatia	2.0%	3.8%	10.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

46%

36%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Portugal vs Croatia

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Portugal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Sep	H Wales	W	1 - 0
06 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 1
02 Jul	H Croatia	W	2 - 1
27 Jun	A Colombia	D	0 - 0
23 Jun	H Uzbekistan	W	5 - 0

Croatia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Jul	A Portugal	L	2 - 1
27 Jun	H Ghana	W	2 - 1
23 Jun	A Panama	W	0 - 1
17 Jun	A England	L	4 - 2
01 Apr	A Brazil	L	3 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Croatia

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Zlatko Dalic

1 Livaković

14 Perišić

3 Pongračić

6 Šutalo

2 Stanišić

8 Kovačić

10 Modrić

16 Baturina

17 Sučić

13 Vlašić

11 Budimir

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Dominik Livaković	G
2	Josip Stanišić	D
6	Josip Šutalo	D
3	Marin Pongračić	D
14	Ivan Perišić	D
10	Luka Modrić	M
8	Mateo Kovačić	M
13	Nikola Vlašić	M
17	Petar Sučić	M
16	Martin Baturina	M
11	Ante Budimir	F

Substitutes

20	Igor Matanović	F
15	Mario Pašalić	M
12	Ivor Pandur	G
23	Dominik Kotarski	G
4	Joško Gvardiol	D
5	Duje Ćaleta-Car	D
22	Luka Vušković	D
25	Martin Erlić	D
7	Nikola Moro	M
24	Marco Pašalić	F
19	Toni Fruk	M
21	Luka Sučić	M
18	Kristijan Jakić	M
9	Andrej Kramarić	F
26	Petar Musa	F

Portugal

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Roberto Martinez

1 Costa

25 Mendes

13 Veiga

3 Dias

20 Cancelo

23 Vitinha

15 Neves

17 Leão

8 Fernandes

18 Neto

7 Ronaldo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Diogo Costa	G
20	João Cancelo	D
3	Rúben Dias	D
13	Renato Veiga	D
25	Nuno Mendes	D
15	João Neves	M
23	Vitinha	M
18	Pedro Neto	M
8	Bruno Fernandes	M
17	Rafael Leão	M
7	Cristiano Ronaldo	F

Substitutes

2	Nélson Semedo	D
10	Bernardo Silva	M
26	Francisco Conceição	F
9	Gonçalo Ramos	F
12	José Sá	G
22	Rui Silva	G
4	Tomás Araújo	D
6	Matheus Nunes	M
14	Gonçalo Inácio	D
5	Diogo Dalot	D
16	Francisco Trincão	F
19	Gonçalo Guedes	F
21	Rúben Neves	M
24	Samú Costa	M
11	João Félix	F