Derry City vs Waterford Prediction

Premier Division · Regular Season - 23

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Waterford

Away

AI прогноза Derry City печели

79%

17%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Derry City vs Waterford prediction: Sportiko gives Derry City a 79% chance of winning, Waterford 3% and the draw 17%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 73%

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Timeline

Conor Barr Yellow Card

13' ▮

⚽ 0–1 14'

Tom Lonergan Penalty

HT 0–1

James McClean

56' ⇄

Patrick McClean Yellow Card

67' ▮

⚽ 0–2 69'

Tom Lonergan

▮ 74'

Benny Couto Yellow Card

⇄ 74'

⇄ Dean McMenamy

⚽ 0–3 77'

Pádraig Amond assist: Hayden Cann

Liam Boyce ⇄ Terence Doherty

78' ⇄

⇄ 78'

Samuel Glenfield ⇄ Luke Heeney

⇄ 78'

Jordan Houston ⇄ Jørgen Voilås

assist: Michael Duffy

82' ⚽ 1–3

Adam O'Reilly assist: Cameron Dummigan

85' ⚽ 2–3

⇄ 86'

Conan Noonan ⇄ Trae Coyle

⚽ 2–4 90'

Jørgen Voilås assist: Tom Lonergan

FT 2–4

Derry City

Match Stats

Waterford

70% Ball Possession 30%

16 Total Shots 11

2 Shots on Goal 3

6 Shots off Goal 2

8 Blocked Shots 6

4 Corner Kicks 7

1 Offsides 2

5 Fouls 13

2 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 0

0 Goalkeeper Saves 2

10 Free Kicks 4

Derry City

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
Patrick McClean	6.9	71'	–	–	1	57 (52%)	2
Liam Boyce	6.7	71'	–	–	2	24 (19%)	–
Barry Cotter	6.4	71'	–	–	–	41 (31%)	1
Brandon Fleming	6.4	71'	–	–	2	46 (39%)	–
Michael Duffy	6.4	71'	–	–	5	32 (27%)	–
Cameron Dummigan	6.3	71'	–	–	–	35 (27%)	3
R. Slevin	6.3	15'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	–
James McClean	6.1	56'	–	–	1	18 (16%)	–
James Olayinka	6.0	71'	–	–	3	19 (15%)	–
B. Maher	5.7	71'	–	–	–	42 (29%)	–

Waterford

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
Tom Lonergan	8.2	71'	2	–	3	15 (8%)	–
Hayden Cann	7.1	71'	–	–	1	11 (5%)	2
Kevin Long	6.9	71'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	1
Stephen McMullan	6.7	71'	–	–	–	23 (12%)	–
John Mahon	6.7	71'	–	–	1	10 (5%)	–
Jordan Houston	6.6	71'	–	–	1	15 (5%)	3
Benny Couto	6.4	71'	–	–	–	15 (5%)	2
Conan Noonan	6.4	71'	–	–	2	17 (8%)	1
Samuel Glenfield	6.1	71'	–	–	–	20 (10%)	1

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Confidence High (79%)

At a glance

Нашият анализ

Derry City печели

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.4%

Both teams to score

23%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Derry City

WDWWD

Waterford

LDDWW

Last 2 meetings Derry City · 1W 1D 0L

Match summary

Derry City faces Waterford in a Premier Division clash on July 3, 2026. Derry City has shown a strong home performance historically, while Waterford has struggled on the road, making this matchup critical for both teams. Key players to watch include Derry City’s top scorer, who has been pivotal in their recent form, and Waterford's defense, which will need to tighten up to avoid conceding early. Statistical trends suggest Derry City may dominate possession, but Waterford's counter-attacking strategy could exploit any defensive lapses.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

79%

45%

Draw

17%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Waterford goals →

	0	1	2
0	10	2
1	19	7	1
2	20	6	1
3	14	4	1
4	8	2
5	3	1

↑ Derry City goals · most likely 2–0 (20.4%)

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Players in form

Derry City

M. Duffy 10 gls

J. Clarke 6 gls

Waterford

T. Lonergan 14 gls

P. Amond 9 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

79%

Draw

17%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

79%

Draw

17%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

96% Home (No Draw) 4% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

54% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

79% Home Scores More 17% Equal Goals 3% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

20%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.8%	2.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
1	18.5%	6.5%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.4%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	14.4%	4.3%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	7.7%	2.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

36%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

34%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Derry City	Draw	Waterford
Derry City	54.2%	1.4%	0.1%
Draw	24.7%	13.0%	1.7%
Waterford	1.3%	1.6%	1.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

38%

1.5

62%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

Home Exact Goals

12%

26%

28%

19%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Derry City vs Waterford

1 Derry City Wins

1 Draws

0 Waterford Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Sep 2026	Waterford	2 - 2	Derry City
27 Feb 2026	Derry City	3 - 2	Waterford

Derry City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Galway United	W	1 - 0
14 Sep	A Waterford	D	2 - 2
11 Sep	A Shelbourne	W	0 - 1
06 Sep	H Dundalk	W	4 - 2
30 Aug	H Shamrock Rovers	D	3 - 3

Waterford — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Shamrock Rovers	L	3 - 2
14 Sep	H Derry City	D	2 - 2
11 Sep	H Dundalk	D	1 - 1
04 Sep	H Sligo Rovers	W	3 - 0
28 Aug	A St Patrick's Athl.	W	0 - 2

Premier Division Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	St Patrick's Athl.	32	17	8	7	52	25	+27	59
2	Shamrock Rovers	31	17	8	6	49	31	+18	59
3	Bohemians	31	16	8	7	55	37	+18	56
4	Derry City	32	9	14	9	45	42	+3	41
5	Dundalk	32	10	11	11	49	53	-4	41
6	Shelbourne	31	9	12	10	41	44	-3	39
7	Galway United	31	9	10	12	41	47	-6	37
8	Waterford	32	7	13	12	44	54	-10	34
9	Drogheda United	32	8	10	14	38	51	-13	34
10	Sligo Rovers	32	5	8	19	24	54	-30	23

Derry City

Coach: Tiernan Lynch

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	B. Maher	-
2	B. Cotter	-
22	C. Barr	-
3	P. McClean	-
19	B. Fleming	-
23	C. Dummigan	-
16	J. McClean	-
8	A. O'Reilly	-
28	J. Olayinka	-
7	M. Duffy	-
27	L. Boyce	-

Substitutes

13	T. Norcott	-
6	R. Slevin	-
31	C. Downey	-
20	C. Winchester	-
21	K. Santos	-
35	L. Kelly	-
32	T. Doherty	-
33	O. O'Brien	-
34	C. O'Donnell	-

Waterford

Coach: Graham Coughlan

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	S. McMullan	-
16	H. Cann	-
5	J. Mahon	-
13	K. Long	-
2	J. Houston	-
19	S. Glenfield	-
4	W. Johnson	-
3	B. Couto	-
10	C. Noonan	-
18	T. Lonergan	-
9	P. Amond	-

Substitutes

21	A. Doherty	-
11	T. Coyle	-
15	L. Heeney	-
20	J. Voilas	-
27	D. McMenamy	-
14	J. Dempsey	-
32	G. Amedu	-
17	J. Faria	-
22	R. Mansfield	-