Scotland vs Brazil Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Post on X

Brazil

Away

AI прогноза Brazil to win or draw

20%

76%

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Scotland vs Brazil prediction: Sportiko gives Scotland a 4% chance of winning, Brazil 76% and the draw 20%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Не и двата отбора вкарват 77%
2nd Half Over 0.5 70%

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Match Report

Scotland fell to a convincing 3-0 defeat against Brazil in their final World Cup group stage match, with Vinícius Júnior the standout performer on the night. The Real Madrid forward opened the scoring in the seventh minute before having a second goal disallowed by VAR for a foul in the 22nd minute. He made amends in first-half stoppage time, doubling Brazil's advantage to put the tie firmly beyond Scotland's reach at the break. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Brazil win as most likely at 76%, a call that proved well-founded.

Matheus Cunha added a third shortly after the hour mark to put the result beyond any doubt, though Brazil were content to manage the game thereafter, making a flurry of substitutions from the 65th minute onwards. Scotland, who had lost Andy Robertson to a half-time substitution, were unable to make any meaningful impression on their opponents despite an equal share of corners.

The underlying numbers told a stark story — Brazil's expected goals figure of 4.41 dwarfed Scotland's 0.87, reflecting a dominant display that sends Brazil through in commanding fashion.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 7'

Vinícius Júnior assist: Rayan

🖵 22'

Vinícius Júnior Goal Disallowed - Foul

⚽ 0–2 45+3'

Vinícius Júnior assist: Bruno Guimarães

HT 0–2

Andy Robertson ⇄ Kieran Tierney

46' ⇄

⚽ 0–3 60'

Matheus Cunha assist: Bruno Guimarães

▮ 62'

Danilo Yellow Card

⇄ 65'

Casemiro ⇄ Fabinho

⇄ 66'

Lucas Paquetá ⇄ Gabriel Martinelli

⇄ 76'

Matheus Cunha ⇄ Neymar

▮ 82'

Fabinho Yellow Card

Nathan Patterson ⇄ Tony Ralston

82' ⇄

Ben Gannon-Doak ⇄ Ryan Christie

82' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Douglas Santos ⇄ Alex Sandro

⇄ 82'

Rayan ⇄ Endrick

Ryan Christie Yellow Card

89' ▮

Lawrence Shankland ⇄ Che Adams

90+1' ⇄

John McGinn ⇄ Findlay Curtis

90+1' ⇄

FT 0–3

Scotland

Match Stats

Brazil

47% Ball Possession 53%

0.87 Expected Goals (xG) 4.41

13 Total Shots 20

4 Shots on Goal 9

6 Shots off Goal 7

3 Blocked Shots 4

9 Shots insidebox 13

4 Shots outsidebox 7

6 Corner Kicks 6

0 Offsides 1

10 Fouls 9

1 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 4

497 Total passes 585

447 Passes accurate 543

90% Passes % 93%

1.05 goals_prevented 1.05

Scotland

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Angus Gunn G	8.2	93'	–	–	–	34 (23%)	–
19 Lewis Ferguson M	7.9	93'	–	–	2	91 (87%)	3
6 Kieran Tierney D	7.2	48'	–	–	–	26 (22%)	–
4 Scott McTominay M	6.7	93'	–	–	3	31 (27%)	1
11 Ryan Christie M	6.5	11'	–	–	1	3 (3%)	–
23 Kenny McLean M	6.5	93'	–	–	–	46 (41%)	–
13 Jack Hendry D	6.3	93'	–	–	–	54 (52%)	–
3 Andy Robertson D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	35 (31%)	1
22 Nathan Patterson D	6.3	82'	–	–	–	56 (51%)	3
7 John McGinn M	6.2	91'	–	–	–	30 (28%)	–
20 Lawrence Shankland F	6.2	91'	–	–	2	18 (13%)	1
24 Tony Ralston D	6.2	11'	–	–	1	1 (1%)	–
17 Ben Gannon-Doak M	6.0	82'	–	–	1	19 (19%)	1
26 Scott McKenna D	5.9	93'	–	–	–	53 (49%)	–
10 Che Adams F	—	2'	–	–	–	–	–
25 Findlay Curtis F	—	2'	–	–	–	–	–

Brazil

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Vinícius Júnior F	9.0	93'	2	–	7	28 (23%)	–
1 Alisson G	7.9	93'	–	–	–	18 (16%)	–
8 Bruno Guimarães M	7.9	93'	–	2	–	43 (36%)	–
26 Rayan F	7.9	82'	–	1	2	25 (25%)	2
9 Matheus Cunha F	7.9	76'	1	–	4	26 (24%)	1
3 Gabriel Magalhães D	7.6	93'	–	–	–	95 (90%)	2
5 Casemiro M	7.3	65'	–	–	–	36 (34%)	4
4 Marquinhos D	7.2	93'	–	–	–	85 (81%)	–
20 Lucas Paquetá M	7.2	66'	–	–	1	56 (48%)	1
13 Danilo D	6.9	93'	–	–	–	65 (61%)	1
17 Fabinho M	6.9	28'	–	–	–	26 (25%)	–
6 Alex Sandro D	6.7	11'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
19 Endrick F	6.6	11'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	1
22 Gabriel Martinelli F	6.5	27'	–	–	–	15 (15%)	–
16 Douglas Santos D	6.3	82'	–	–	1	39 (38%)	1
10 Neymar F	6.3	17'	–	–	1	12 (11%)	–

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Confidence High (76%)

At a glance

Нашият анализ

Brazil to win or draw

Most likely score

0:2 · 20.3%

Both teams to score

23%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Scotland

LLWLD

Brazil

LWWWD

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup clash on June 24, 2026, Scotland faces a formidable opponent in Brazil. Historically, Brazil has dominated international play with five World Cup titles and a squad depth that includes world-class talent across all positions. Scotland, while competitive, will need to leverage their defensive organization and home advantage to withstand Brazil's attacking prowess, which features elite forwards and midfielders capable of creating scoring opportunities. Key players for Scotland will need to step up, particularly in midfield, to disrupt Brazil’s rhythm. Overall, Brazil enters as the favorite, but Scotland's resilience could make for an intriguing contest.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

10%

Draw

20%

45%

Away

76%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Brazil goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	12	20	20	13	6	3
1	2	7	6	4	2	1
2		1	1	1
3
4
5

↑ Scotland goals · most likely 0–2 (20.3%)

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Players in form

Scotland

No scorer data.

Brazil

Vinícius Júnior 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

76%

Draw

20%

Home Win

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

76%

Draw

20%

Home Win

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

95% Away (No Draw) 5% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

50% Away Win by 2+ 1% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

76% Away Scores More 20% Equal Goals 4% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

22%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.5%	20.1%	20.3%	13.2%	6.5%
1	2.4%	7.1%	6.1%	4.0%	1.9%
2	0.5%	0.9%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%
3	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

36%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

35%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Scotland	Draw	Brazil
Scotland	2.2%	1.7%	1.3%
Draw	2.0%	15.0%	24.8%
Brazil	0.1%	1.5%	51.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

74%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

43%

1.5

57%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Away Exact Goals

14%

28%

27%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Scotland vs Brazil

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Scotland — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Jun	H Brazil	L	0 - 3
19 Jun	H Morocco	L	0 - 1
14 Jun	A Haiti	W	0 - 1
23 Jun	H Hungary	L	0 - 1
19 Jun	H Switzerland	D	1 - 1

Brazil — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Jul	H Norway	L	1 - 2
29 Jun	H Japan	W	2 - 1
24 Jun	A Scotland	W	0 - 3
20 Jun	H Haiti	W	3 - 0
13 Jun	H Morocco	D	1 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Scotland

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Steve Clarke

1 Gunn

3 Robertson

26 McKenna

13 Hendry

22 Patterson

23 McLean

19 Ferguson

7 McGinn

4 McTominay

17 Gannon-Doak

20 Shankland

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Angus Gunn	G
22	Nathan Patterson	D
13	Jack Hendry	D
26	Scott McKenna	D
3	Andy Robertson	D
19	Lewis Ferguson	M
23	Kenny McLean	M
17	Ben Gannon-Doak	M
4	Scott McTominay	M
7	John McGinn	M
20	Lawrence Shankland	F

Substitutes

6	Kieran Tierney	D
12	Liam Kelly	G
21	Craig Gordon	G
2	Aaron Hickey	D
5	Grant Hanley	D
15	John Souttar	D
16	Dominic Hyam	D
24	Tony Ralston	D
8	Tyler Fletcher	M
11	Ryan Christie	M
25	Findlay Curtis	F
9	Lyndon Dykes	F
10	Che Adams	F
14	Ross Stewart	F
18	George Hirst	F

Brazil

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Carlo Ancelotti

1 Alisson

16 Santos

3 Magalhães

4 Marquinhos

13 Danilo

20 Paquetá

5 Casemiro

8 Guimarães

7 Júnior

9 Cunha

26 Rayan

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alisson	G
13	Danilo	D
4	Marquinhos	D
3	Gabriel Magalhães	D
16	Douglas Santos	D
8	Bruno Guimarães	M
5	Casemiro	M
20	Lucas Paquetá	M
26	Rayan	F
9	Matheus Cunha	F
7	Vinícius Júnior	F

Substitutes

12	Weverton	G
23	Ederson	G
6	Alex Sandro	D
14	Bremer	D
15	Léo Pereira	D
24	Roger Ibañez	D
2	Éderson	M
17	Fabinho	M
18	Danilo Santos	M
21	Luiz Henrique	F
10	Neymar	F
19	Endrick	F
22	Gabriel Martinelli	F
25	Igor Thiago	F